Pushing the limits of Microsoft Excel.
Not Financial Advice
Joined January 2023
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Here is a brief NotebookLM video summary of Aggregator Wars.
The short version: AI agents go straight for the one asset that made the internet giants rich, the direct relationship with the customer. That is why nobody will take their foot off the accelerator. Data wins the customer, recurring cash flow keeps you in the fight, and profits migrate to hardware providers nobody can copy and to whoever owns the customer. Google and Meta are best placed, consensus has Meta upside down, and the AI labs and compute sellers face a funding squeeze into 2027 as capital markets run dry.
If you want a deep dive on what an aggregator is, how agentic AI changes legacy aggregation theory, who is best positioned to be the next aggregator, what each company's profit engine means in this capex cycle, what it means for AI labs and compute sellers, and where value migrates to, I recommend reading the full note. It is as condensed as possible, but packed with information.
I'd invite anyone to push back on any angle of this framework.
Wow, I never liked Jensen specially since Dwarkesh podcast, but truly didn’t expect it will ever do something like this, lol.
$NVDA CEO JENSEN HUANG’S DRAFT MEMO TO EMPLOYEES, OBTAINED BY AXIOS.
“I owe my family and all of you an apology.”
“I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.”
“Leading NVIDIA is the privilege of my life.”
“I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence.”
Regarding the national security investigation:
“I support the investigation and will cooperate fully.”
“My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.”
NVIDIA’s board has launched an independent investigation into reports that Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.
The board says it currently has no reason to believe U.S. national security or NVIDIA’s secrets were compromised.
LBO_Guy retweeted
🥇 UPPER CLASS
• Oyster Perpetual 🇨🇭 (wealth without the noise)
• Explorer 🇨🇭 (nothing left to prove)
• Day-Date 🇨🇭 (the boardroom already knows)
• 1908 🇨🇭 (rich enough to be invisible)
Three words:
LIGHT WEIGHT, BABY
Yo, even utilities ain’t move like this😭👨🍳
Is this what “hedge fund” really means? #marketneutral
LBO_Guy retweeted
Nvidia Rubin Teardown! Direct from SemiAnalysis: in the lab, on the bench. Reach out to [email protected] now to learn how you can get early access to the hardest hitting insights in DC/AI hardware.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Walleye’s investor letter tells you everything you need to know.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Hedge funds that never, ever actually hedge anything will always be funny.
Everyone was just balls deep the exact same “buy-at-any
-price” pump-and-dump schemes.
LBO_Guy retweeted
Yicai: "China’s comprehensive package to defuse local government debt risks is advancing at full speed, with the number of local government financing vehicles shutting down accelerating in the first three quarters of the year. The number of local government financing vehicles plunged 92 percent as of Sept. 30 from the end of March 2023."
But as LGFV debt plunges, China's total debt-to-GDP ratio continues to rise as fast as ever, and faster than that of any other country in history. LGFV debt, in other words, is only being "defused" in the sense that it is being shifted from contingent obligations of local and central government to direct obligations. It is not otherwise being resolved.
yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-…
Wait a bit for all the fishes to die. Hold to your puts tightly. Tuesday we buy things for pennies on the dollar😉
LBO_Guy retweeted
Comprehensive list of hedge funds blowing up this week, getting large redemptions, or shutting down PMs:
- Axebrook
- Walleye
- Engineers Gate
- Lone Pine
- Millennium internal pods
- Verition pods
- Samlyn
Letter from Walleye closing internal funds below
LBO_Guy retweeted
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: “I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats”
She was asked at her first press conference why she’d go bipartisan after voters gave Democrats a mandate:
“Because this is about my campaign promises, what I ran to create as governor. We are forging a new way forward. People are tired of the divisions, of the fighting, tired of the culture wars. This is a time to come together in a way that is about just delivering for the people of Texas."
"Ernest Bailes, Representative Ernest Bailes and myself were close allies delivering for our public schools. In fact, I count him as one of my best allies for public schools. That is his commitment. There is really little light between our positions on public education, and as such, he serves as a tremendous leader on this transition team."
"And look, there are lots of issues with whom my good allies are Republicans. So I’m just about delivering for people. This is not about being a Democratic administration. I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats. I’m going to be the governor for all the people of Texas.”
Gina Hinojosa says she would issue a moratorium on all *new* Texas data centers until the legislature passes protections
“What I would do is pass laws to protect people. That’s the way this works. Right? It’s not promises that can be broken November 4th, the day after the election. It’s about passing laws to protect Texans."
"That’s what I’ve called on this governor to do, to call a special session, an emergency special session. He has the sole power to do it. He refuses to do it. He’s received $20 million from data center interests."
"I would issue a moratorium on any new data centers until the legislature can pass laws to protect Texans."
"Everything from water to electricity, jobs, all of it. Right? Making sure we have guardrails when it comes to AI. This is what AI is for. This is what it is not for."
"I just had a press conference yesterday where I denounced Greg Abbott’s plan to convert 100 schools in Houston into AI schools, a model in which teachers are replaced by education guides. This is experimenting on our kids. Parents don’t want this."
"Kids spend enough time on screens, yet this is how big tech makes more money. And Greg Abbott is in the pockets of the big tech donors. So we just need some basic protections and guardrails in law. That’s how this works.”
LBO_Guy retweeted
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
LBO_Guy retweeted
Say goodbye to language barriers. 🚀
Powered by Gemini 3.5 Live Translate, Google Meet's speech translation now supports 63 languages, translated across any combination, in real time.
With automatic speaker language detection, you just select your preferred language and speech translation does the rest. Watch here 👇 goo.gle/4iFoax7
Pues si ya era imposible conseguir reserva, ahora menos. Fckng hell.
‼️El Asador Etxebarri, mejor restaurante del mundo 2026: otros cuatro españoles entre los 50 destacados eldiario.es/viajes/asador-et…
Rheinmetall de 2000 pavos a 873 y hoy -14% halted for volatility (de 2000 a 750 en 1 año). Drawdown de 63%. Para que luego digan de las criptos o memecoins.
Para los newcomers que solo citaban el backlog, una cosa que aprendi con los auto suppliers es que los backlogs pueden esfumarse en un santiamen!
