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Pushing the limits of Microsoft Excel.

Not Financial Advice
Joined January 2023
Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)Photo by LBO_Guy (@The_Analyst_Lab)
🥇 UPPER CLASS • Oyster Perpetual 🇨🇭 (wealth without the noise) • Explorer 🇨🇭 (nothing left to prove) • Day-Date 🇨🇭 (the boardroom already knows) • 1908 🇨🇭 (rich enough to be invisible)
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Nvidia Rubin Teardown! Direct from SemiAnalysis: in the lab, on the bench. Reach out to [email protected] now to learn how you can get early access to the hardest hitting insights in DC/AI hardware.
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Walleye’s investor letter tells you everything you need to know.
Big headlines today about Kirkoswald and Walleye, both hedge funds having their worst months on record and losing all gains for the year. This volatility is roiling markets. The losses are unrelenting. Arini is not alone, and today proves it’s not over. Strap in and survive.
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Hedge funds that never, ever actually hedge anything will always be funny. Everyone was just balls deep the exact same “buy-at-any -price” pump-and-dump schemes.
I have covered hedge funds for nearly 16 years, and I can't remember a day like today. Here's what happened in the space of about ten hours:
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Yicai: "China’s comprehensive package to defuse local government debt risks is advancing at full speed, with the number of local government financing vehicles shutting down accelerating in the first three quarters of the year. The number of local government financing vehicles plunged 92 percent as of Sept. 30 from the end of March 2023." But as LGFV debt plunges, China's total debt-to-GDP ratio continues to rise as fast as ever, and faster than that of any other country in history. LGFV debt, in other words, is only being "defused" in the sense that it is being shifted from contingent obligations of local and central government to direct obligations. It is not otherwise being resolved. yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-…
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Comprehensive list of hedge funds blowing up this week, getting large redemptions, or shutting down PMs: - Axebrook - Walleye - Engineers Gate - Lone Pine - Millennium internal pods - Verition pods - Samlyn Letter from Walleye closing internal funds below
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Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: “I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats” She was asked at her first press conference why she’d go bipartisan after voters gave Democrats a mandate: “Because this is about my campaign promises, what I ran to create as governor. We are forging a new way forward. People are tired of the divisions, of the fighting, tired of the culture wars. This is a time to come together in a way that is about just delivering for the people of Texas." "Ernest Bailes, Representative Ernest Bailes and myself were close allies delivering for our public schools. In fact, I count him as one of my best allies for public schools. That is his commitment. There is really little light between our positions on public education, and as such, he serves as a tremendous leader on this transition team." "And look, there are lots of issues with whom my good allies are Republicans. So I’m just about delivering for people. This is not about being a Democratic administration. I’m not going to be the governor for just Democrats. I’m going to be the governor for all the people of Texas.”
Gina Hinojosa says she would issue a moratorium on all *new* Texas data centers until the legislature passes protections “What I would do is pass laws to protect people. That’s the way this works. Right? It’s not promises that can be broken November 4th, the day after the election. It’s about passing laws to protect Texans." "That’s what I’ve called on this governor to do, to call a special session, an emergency special session. He has the sole power to do it. He refuses to do it. He’s received $20 million from data center interests." "I would issue a moratorium on any new data centers until the legislature can pass laws to protect Texans." "Everything from water to electricity, jobs, all of it. Right? Making sure we have guardrails when it comes to AI. This is what AI is for. This is what it is not for." "I just had a press conference yesterday where I denounced Greg Abbott’s plan to convert 100 schools in Houston into AI schools, a model in which teachers are replaced by education guides. This is experimenting on our kids. Parents don’t want this." "Kids spend enough time on screens, yet this is how big tech makes more money. And Greg Abbott is in the pockets of the big tech donors. So we just need some basic protections and guardrails in law. That’s how this works.”
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The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028. She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.” Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas. Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview. Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post. Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics. youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
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Say goodbye to language barriers. 🚀 Powered by Gemini 3.5 Live Translate, Google Meet's speech translation now supports 63 languages, translated across any combination, in real time. With automatic speaker language detection, you just select your preferred language and speech translation does the rest. Watch here 👇 goo.gle/4iFoax7
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Codex Thursday! GPT-6.2 Astra/Sol이 배포되고 있습니다. 드디어 만나볼 수 있겠군요.
GPT 6.2 Astra & 6.2 Sol have been deployed on Google Cloud
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Cillian Murphy and Christian Bale are reportedly in discussions to co-star in a cold-war psychological thriller directed by Denis Villeneuve. The film is reportedly set in a desolate sub-zero Arctic radar base, centering on two high-ranking intelligence officers locked in a high-stakes standoff where neither knows if the other is a turncoat.
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LBO_Guy retweeted
Another day, another article about Arini Capital. If the story about moving to 40,000 sq ft new offices is true, that's difficult to fathom. Some claims of $2bn notional value sold How audacious London debt trader Hamza Lemssouguer came unstuck ft.com/content/29c178c1-2960… via @ft
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LBO_Guy retweeted
🛑 Belgium 30s crosses over Italy
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LBO_Guy retweeted
remember cash is a position too, if you’re a pussy
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LBO_Guy retweeted
More redemptions, including from another London-based credit hedge fund (Axebrook) xitter.gq/nishantkumar07/status/…
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Happy Halloween.
🤖 Made with AI
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LBO_Guy retweeted
Anthropic is pumping today… any reason for this? Fable 5.5 leak?
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The master biographer reflects at 91. The Robert Caro interview. 0:00:00 – How Caro gets people to talk 0:05:03 – Does America need a little more Moses today? 0:12:42 – Moses the young idealist 0:17:57 – Watching Moses lose power 0:24:01 – Did Moses realize he was changing? 0:27:53 – Building during the Great Depression 0:32:51 – The threats and promises of Lyndon Johnson 0:36:08 – Could Kennedy have passed Johnson’s laws? 0:41:00 – Getting a book down to one sentence 0:46:21 – All the material that never made it into the books 0:52:59 – Loneliness
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UPDATE: Remember when Bloom claimed its supply chain is “not dependent on China” after Hunterbrook’s reporting?  New trade records show $BE seems to have quietly restarted a Chinese supply route for scandium-containing fuel cell parts.
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Replying to @alexandr_wang
@alexandr_wang said @Muse can make you $1,000. My receipt: Muse switched me from a $2,123 GEICO renewal to $1,536 at Progressive with BETTER COVERAGE ($1,174/yr saved), then Muse CALLED GEICO to cancel it for me. Then when GEICO asked for me, Muse called me, merged the call, and I was on the phone ~60 seconds to verify my identity and give my reason for cancellation. #MuseMoneyChallenge
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