Semi-retiredly shitposting online, on a different blue website
An Island
Joined January 2012
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coming back to the hellsite after a two year hiatus, the #1 thing about elon's algo is how fast it adjusts. click on one france riot pic and you get fed 500 more, one poll and you get 500 more, ad infinitum. it slots you into a silo and rots your brain faster than boomerbook.
The conservative ecosystem has made such a longtime habit out of grifting its base that it's left room for some of the worst human beings on Earth to thrive because they're honest. Bo French is repulsive, but at least he doesn't lie to your face.
In other news, you're losing.
The ad has gone over so well with everyone involved that MAGA information channels have already made sure nobody sees it.
Have said enough about Dems crushing, so here's where I'm trimming Dem positions:
MI-Sen: I think AES wins, but why buy an underperformer at ~68 when you can buy Dem Sen at 66?
AK-Sen: same deal. She prob wins but Dem Sen's cheaper
MS-Sen: my only R position, will Titanic w/it
The handful of times I've been the most wrong about the meta of an election are all when I doubted a particular aspect of Nate's models. You don't have to love everything he says, but he's good at what he does.
Listened to Nate Silver on Ezra this morning. One of the least popular things I could do on this website is defend Nate Silver, so challenge accepted.
His "vibes" have been directionally correct in every Election. In 2012, he fought against the polling unskewers making claims that Romney would win based on undersampling of Republicans.
In 2016, his model was famously FAR more bullish on Trump than any others. He was the only modeler who understood the possibility of correlated polling error.
In 2020, he repeatedly emphasized the higher than usual uncertainty due to the pandemic.
In 2022, he fought back against pollsters (NY Times!) basically ignoring their own data to buy into the Red Wave.
In 2024, he said that even though his model was 50/50, his gut said Trump would win.
All in all, a better record than anyone else on Election Twitter.
I stand by the idea that LV further right than RV is defensible in some states. It's even somewhat defensible in Maine. But a screen that pushes Gov further right than Sen, and averages ten points after EV has started and trended far to the left, is crazy.
Not my specialty, but Likud voters sure seem demoralized this afternoon in Israel
ווואי וואי וואי וואי.
הערבים נוהרים ולא רק הם.
יש תוצאות של קלפיות
הפער בין המעוזים גדל.
בבוקר מעוזי המרכז־שמאל הקדימו את מעוזי הליכוד ב־1.4 נקודות. בצהריים הפער כבר 4.2.
מעוזי המרכז־שמאל כבר השיגו 48.9% מאחוז ההצבעה הסופי שלהם ב־2022, מעוזי הליכוד רק 44.7%.
ובחברה הערבית זינוק: 48.5%!!!
שורה תחתונה למי שמסתבך עם גרפים ונתונים:
נכון לכרגע אחוזי ההצבעה מטורפים במיוחד אצל מצביעי אופוזיציה.
או במילים אחרות... זה נראה שיש טרוף לשינוי של הממשלה הנוכחית.
טפי טפו טפנ חמסה שום בצל
Everybody has been sleeping on NJ-02 this entire time despite Gloucester EV looking like Ra are illegal. Breaking my own rule not to touch races below statewide, I’ve built a nice anti Van Drew position.
There are, idk, two dozen more? such cases elsewhere.
A new poll shows Democrats with a generic 23-point lead in New Jersey congressional races, while MAGA is plunging.
newjerseyglobe.com/polling/f…
Day 8: Look at this chart (@theoelections), @Thorongil16 's chart, or whatever you want. The rurals aren't voting, the cities are, and Wed-Fri will be bluer. It's tracking to an R+6 electorate but Hispanics alone will be D+500k.
Senate = close to likely D. Gov is a tossup.
There are 26 states on this dash representing all the states with useful history. A couple are a few days behind, the rest are ~current. MI is 90% mail with county-based IPEV running D+20 since Sat, and KY is KY. What other part of this looks good for Rs? I dunno.
Rs have said AZ is going well for them. I've now looked. It's not.
In absolute ballot numbers, it's a tie (Hobbs wins easily anyway.) But look at the low propensity trend and then the turnout percentages. Same trend as everywhere else; Rs lag with no sign of catching up.
"Dems have turned out far more voters than Rs have throughout EV. That means we have more people remaining, so the red wave on EDay is going to be huge"
self parody
this is a somewhere between lean to likely KLB map and an Ossoff wins by VA margins map
GA early vote numbers are historically bad for the GOP compared to 2022 and 2024. The margin on in-person EV now sits at D+10.9 on modeled party (D+11.2 with mail). This up from D+10.2 before the weekend. I changed the map color scale to show the margins a little better #gapol
Iowa has been the, let's call it, least bonkers competitive Dem turnout outside of Florida but even there, this week is likely going to be much bluer than advertised because the last week of IPEV is the realm of the less frequent voter.
a radio show host just casually insulting the intelligence of everyone he comes into contact with, because he's been talking to a certain type of audience for so long he's lost the ability to do anything else but grift
Democrats are going to crash out when they see that Hispanic voting is going to land somewhere around 60-40 Republican advantage in Texas.
It will be interesting to watch.
@WBAP247NEWS
Ralston makes it official:
Before too many more people make fun of InDePeNdEnT SwInGs, Susquehanna made this same error for the first hour or so of Kalshi's election parlays so there are a few dozen or more sharps who got like 10-1 on Dems winning Nebraska AND Michigan
This is blowing past the most optimistic projections I had a week ago. Lombardo is a large underdog relying on a lot of crossover to survive. Whatever, it's Nevada, a tertiary election at best. But it's *very* predictive of every other election and it's shifting infinity points.
