I take on Wall Street & corporate America for investors, employees & consumers. Press regular. Today's geopolitics, last century's lessons. Not legal advice.

Washington DC & Cleveland
Joined November 2012
Mandatory arbitration clauses forced by the banking industry onto its customers are banned as to active service members under the Military Lending Act. So, a 4-star general with a Harvard degree enjoys this protection, but a poor struggling veteran does not. If Congress recognized those mandatory arbitration clauses as predatory & one-sided, why not extend that ban to benefit all Americans?
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Alan Rosca retweeted
China's STAR 50 Index of leading tech firms is down 40%, losing $480 billion of market value. These are mostly semiconductor-related companies, like SMIC and Cambricon, and not Alibaba, Tencent, BYD, etc.
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Encouraging stats - AI adoption by professional services is starting to reflect in increased productivity. I can attest to that in our law firm: great productivity improvements due to AI.
AI productivity gains are showing up, but only in ~15% of jobs. The three heaviest AI adopters (information, professional services, finance) went from a 2.2% productivity trend to 5.0% since 2022. The rest of the economy: 0.9% to 1.4%.
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Using Chinese open source AI models would seem like a reckless thing to do by an American company, especially companies that handle other people’s data.👇
While evaluating Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in a controlled sandbox environment, Cohere's research team observed something unexpected. Asked to generate a defensive cybersecurity detection rule, the model instead inventoried aspects of the machine it was running on and attempted to upload a probe file to an Alibaba Cloud storage bucket in Beijing. Notably, the model's reasoning trace stated that it would not invoke any tools before taking these actions. Cohere's sandbox blocked the attempt, and no external communication succeeded. We have not determined the root cause, and we are not asserting malicious intent. But the incident raises important questions for organizations deploying agentic AI systems: Can models take actions that differ from their stated reasoning, and how should security teams evaluate trust, provenance, and behavior in open-weight models? We are publishing our findings because organizations making model adoption decisions deserve as much information as possible. We hope this contributes to greater transparency, stronger security practices, and continued collaboration across the AI ecosystem. Read the full report: cohere.com/blog/concerning-b…
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The AI wipeout of tech jobs is starting to gather steam.👇
Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000(!) employees. Headcount and revenue growth is really starting to diverge at tech companies.
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If and when the world transitions to fusion energy, all those crazy fanatics in the Middle East and their squabbles will become irrelevant to the rest of the world. The sooner the better.
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Depopulation is the world’s most pressing problem today. Most people don’t think of it as the root cause of the protests/riots in Europe, but it is: plummeting birth rates in Europe have created huge fiscal imbalances & deficits, & undermined (along w/ other factors) economic growth
Japan is often discussed as if it has uniquely low fertility. Its fertility rate is very low, but several countries–including ones with reputations for being lively!–are now even lower.
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China Shock 1.0: this is what globalization and unfettered market access of Chinese imports did to American manufacturing jobs. Entire communities in the Midwest were devastated and never recovered, despite the free-trade economists’ confident predictions of job retraining.
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Europe is on a mission to commit economic suicide and help the Chinese government destroy Europe’s car industry, one of the continent’s few remaining key economic drivers.
Chinese automakers outsold Japanese rivals in Europe for the first time over a full quarter, underscoring how quickly brands like BYD and Chery Automobile are gaining ground in the region. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The Permian extinction of unviable AI companies will begin soon.
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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A federal judge used AI to draft a court order. The 5th Circuit has now taken the case away from him. Jackson Federation of Teachers v. Fitch (5th Cir., Oct. 22, 2026). In July 2025, Judge Henry Wingate (S.D. Miss.) issued a TRO that: • named plaintiffs and defendants who were never parties • misquoted the statute it was blocking • relied on declarations not in the record • cited "Cousins v. School Bd. of Norfolk," a 4th Circuit case that doesn't exist When this came to light, the court swapped in a "corrected" order backdated to the original date, called the errors "clerical," and blamed a clerk's AI-assisted draft. The fake case carried into the preliminary injunction anyway. The 5th Circuit vacated the injunction and directed that the case be reassigned to a different judge. Its reason was that an objective observer could question the judge's impartiality. Lawyers have been sanctioned for AI hallucinations for two years. This time it was the court.
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The rioters in France, estimated at between 410-800,000 represent 0.6-1.2% of France’s population. That means 98.8-99.4% of France’s population is not participating in riots. It only takes a minuscule % of the population to wreak havoc in a society.
WATCH: Large crowds marched through Paris today in a second national day of protests against the rising cost of living, as authorities deployed heavy security following last weekend’s riots. The police prefecture put turnout in Paris at about 110,000, while the CGT union claimed around 250,000. Nationwide, the Interior Ministry counted roughly 410,000 protesters, compared with up to 800,000 claimed by the CGT.
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Unsustainable 👇
Probably one of the most horrifying statistics I have seen today Married + home by 30 years old in America > 1950: 50% > 1960: 52% > 1970: 48% > 1980: 45% > 1990: 43% > 2000: 35% > 2010: 25% > 2026: 12%
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Savage treatment of Ukrainian prisoners by their Russian captors: they carved the word "Jew" in Russian ("evrey") on his back. And clearly tortured him beyond that. Are those savages the people our government wants to be friendly with?
Ukrainian POW returned from Russian captivity in prisoner exchange had “Jew” carved into his back. Putin isn’t fighting Nazis, he IS the Nazi.
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AI hallucinations strike again: an extraordinarily rare rebuke of a federal judge by a federal appellate court, arising out of the district court's use of AI to draft an important court ruling, which resulted in fabricated quotes, cites to inexistent cases, and references to made-up facts in that ruling -
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French high school students protesting because their government doesn't give them the resources to help them study hard and get good grades in school? Doesn't seem like it.
BREAKING: Protesters attempted to force their way into the historic headquarters of the Gendarmerie in Paris. Why are they wedded to destroying historic buildings?
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Alan Rosca retweeted
"China is not contributing to profitability anymore." Volvo Cars CEO Hakan Samuelsson says the market for Western-developed cars in China is disappearing fast, as the Swedish automaker plans to cut 2,5000 more jobs  bloom.bg/4zTcRsm
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Universities are following a historical trajectory not dissimilar from the old Church in Europe: they started as socially useful institutions with noble missions, but are turning into these bloated, sclerotic, self-absorbed, rent-seeking, resource-extracting organizations, on a path to take more value from society than they provide. At some point soon there will be a big reckoning - just like the Reformation.
FWIW, at Berkeley, much of the administrative growth is the result of poor faculty governance. We're constantly approving new programs that require staff, such as zero-waste or sustainability programs. The result is that we now have scores of staff with "sustainability" in their title. These are permanent staff because we don't have a concept of sunset and because once hired, we're bad at supervising them. These staff reduce efficiency because they exercise their power through procurement rules (e.g. can't order lunch from a company unless it has compostable boxes, which means someone needs to confirm compliance). So then, you need more staff to interact with the complexified staff/union-made procurement rules. At the law school, we have people who do our reimbursement requests because the process is so confusing that only specialists can do it. Faculty are also generally neurotic people and they don't understand risk. So we overreact to regulatory demands, such as the Cleary Act, FERPA, etc. At Berkeley, we have 4 different people with "Cleary act" in their title. There's no concept of "reasonable compliance," it's an attempt to reach perfect compliance, which results in Cleary Act warnings about stolen sandwiches at the cafeteria...and more and more staff whenever any error appears.
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Federal prosecutors have charged 15 people in Los Angeles in medical fraud schemes accused of stealing $2 billion from government and private health programs, per the California Post. They’re accused of billing for unnecessary surgeries, recruiting homeless people into sham rehab programs, and charging the government for phony hospice care. One case alone involves $1.6 billion in alleged sham rehab claims, which prosecutors call the largest of its kind ever.
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GLP-1 weight loss drugs may prove as important to mankind as AI. Maybe more. Most people still think of them as weight-loss drugs. They're far more consequential. Obesity is a big part of what makes aging hugely expensive: diabetes, heart disease, kidney failure are direct results of being overweight. Ozempic, Wegovy, Zepbound, and Mounjaro don’t just help with weight loss. They throttle down those cascading conditions. Healthier people put far less strain on the medical system, so the GLP-1 drugs should help reduce the national deficit. But the bigger story isn’t what healthy people don’t cost. It’s what they produce. A 65-year-old who isn’t fighting heart disease or diabetes can keep working, building a business, inventing, mentoring, and helping raise the next generation. Every year someone stays healthy and productive is a year of output, income, and spending that would otherwise have been lost to illness. Multiply that by tens of millions of Americans. We’re living through a medical revolution but still talking about it as if it's merely a diet trend. History will see it differently.
US consumers taking weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro have turned to cobblers and tailors as they try to save money while shedding pounds, motivated in part by rising out-of-pocket costs as employers increasingly drop GLP-1 coverage reut.rs/4k3VvEg
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