
Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia | FRHistS | @warstudies | @kcl_CGS | Postwar Japan as a Seapower. Naval affairs. Strategy. Indo-Pacific. One ping only.
London, England
Joined March 2013
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The Strategic Significance of the Maritime Theatre in the Russia–Ukraine War - good morning X.
Delighted and honoured this piece Dan Hallett and I penned is out with @RUSI_org flagship publication- a short thread about our argument: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
The Royal Marines Experience museum opens today after £15M revamp in its new home at Boathouse 6 in the Portsmouth Historic Dockyard. @NatMuseumRN
£36 for adults
£26 for children.
royalnavy.mod.uk/news/2026/o…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
First snip from the article, second snip statement by the First Sea Lord Gwyn Jenkins at DSEI 2025. Comparison for general amusement.😉
Latest news article:
Royal Navy to trial its first Large Uncrewed Surface Vessel next year
navylookout.com/royal-navy-t…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
What role do nuclear weapons play in the twenty-first century? Five experts—Eric Edelman, Franklin Miller, @Yonatan_Touval, Janice Gross Stein and @Gottemoeller—weigh in:
foreignaffairs.com/responses…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
NEW: Bloomberg Saturday read
Next week John Healey must deliver what Rachel Reeves couldn’t: a budget that keeps both the bond market and Labour MPs happy. By the time he sits down on Wednesday, gilt traders may be happier than backbenchers.
— Healey has found communicating what he wants to achieve at this budget difficult. He says fiscal stability is his main objective, but in Andy Burnham he serves a PM who’s set expectations high with promises of radical change. The cost-of-living is rising. Trump is threatening more Iran chaos. Voters and Labour MPs want evidence of a bold economic plan.
— Instead, the Treasury is talking about a “focused” and “steady as she goes” budget. Energy bill support is due to be limited and temporary. Major calls on defence spending and welfare cuts have been deferred. There won’t be big tax rises, though banks are likely to be hit. Social care and reversing Brexit are way off. It’s led to accusations of a “mañana” approach.
— Aides say the top economic priority since winning power has been dispelling the narrative that Burnham might be a left-wing Liz Truss. That’s ultimately why Healey was made chancellor not Ed Miliband. Advisers note gilts have performed relatively well in the weeks preceding the budget compared to peers like France, arguing that vindicates Healey’s cautious approach.
— But it means Wednesday is a moment of political risk for Burnham: the first real litmus test of whether he has a radical plan that can deliver before the next election. Some Labour MPs are disappointed with the framing of the budget as safety-first. They argue ‘Treasury orthodoxy’ has prevailed again as a capital gains tax hike is ruled out. The Treasury rejects the idea it’ll be a non-event, suggesting there’ll be cost-of-living rabbits.
— It remains remarkable Healey is not insisting on taking the defence spending decision. Defence officials want him to announce the 3% by 2030 target at the budget, saying it’ll be fully funded and he’ll set out how at the spending review. That would at least be a big policy that would win positive headlines.
— Allies of Reeves say it’s hugely ironic that she delivered the most left-wing budget in decades in 2024, raising huge taxes, changing the fiscal rules to borrow and spend more, only to be portrayed by the Labour left as an un-Labour fiscal hawk. Now she’s been turfed out for a chancellor who’ll deliver a far less radical budget and Labour MPs will be asking if they got what they wanted, they argue.
— The difference is Burnham may have the political authority to weather it. The rebels who did for Starmer and Reeves - Miliband, Louise Haigh, Miatta Fahnbulleh - aren’t going to plot against him too. Burnham has shown he can do things the left doesn’t like, from more North Sea drilling to ditching the triple lock and backing Saudi Arabia, with only muted dissent.
— The next few weeks will show if that can last. There have been skirmishes on immigration policy. There remains queasiness about the idea of any cuts to disability benefits. The opposition to cutting PIP remains. The Rendustrialisation Research Group of MPs is worried current plans don’t match the scale of ambitions set out by Burnham when he took office.
— And there is real nervousness among MPs about the 10-year plan and concerns at the lack of formal consultation from No10 about what it should contain. Some in Labour are privately arguing Burnham should not be writing a decade-long policy plan for the party and government’s policy direction unilaterally. Bond investors might be happy, but first at the budget, then again in the weeks before Christmas, Labour MPs’ loyalty will be tested.
With @ChaplainChloe @Joe_Mayes @LucyGJWhite: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
Andy Haldane interview:
**The financial situation is precarious - the penny hasn't dropped in No 10**
'The penny has not yet fully dropped, including in Downing Street. You see that in us having the highest borrowing costs in the G7, despite not having the highest debts and deficits
'It’s the old [Ernest] Hemingway thing, isn’t it? How do you go bankrupt? First slowly, then very quickly.
'Keir [Starmer] lost the dressing room. Andy’s biggest risk is that he loses the dealing room. And then that’s an even more painful way to go, as Liz Truss would tell you.'
**Britain is at or close to being taxed out**
'The truth is, as a nation, we are at or close to being taxed out,” he says. “And we are at or close to being maxed out in terms of borrowing.
'So for me, the economics of this are very straightforward. We have a public sector, a government sector with a balance sheet whose productivity has failed to rise this century. And we have a private sector which is actually primed, its balance sheet is in good shape.
'If you want good growth in every postcode — dear God, I want that as much as the next man, probably just as much as Andy in fact — the root is by unlocking those animal spirits and that means a smaller state, lower taxes and that means lower government spending and tough choices around that'
**The economy could 'crater' without spending cuts**
“This is not a hypothetical risk. Look across the Channel, not just to what’s happening in France, but what’s happening in Greece or Italy or Portugal or Spain a decade and a bit ago. Avoid that like the plague
'Because when you are forced involuntarily into making much more draconian cuts to appease financial markets and get them back on side that will, one, crater the economy. And, two, almost certainly crater your popularity
'That for me is the peril that comes from prevarication on this front. The peril that comes from not using up political capital and making hard choices'
**A 'mañana' Budget does not speak to the urgency of now**
'The public finances dimension is of course a real concern for me. I feel the time to get on top of that is now because who knows what might turn up tomorrow. And a mañana budget doesn’t speak to the urgency of now
'The mañana choices will not be easier tomorrow. They’re going to be much harder. So backloading them, crossing your fingers and hoping that the weather turns, for me would not be the preferred course, would not be the prudent course, and risks next year being even more of a heavy lift than would otherwise be the case'
**Banking taxes are 'penny wise, pound foolish'**
'The point that actually weighs with me most heavily is that this isn’t just about the banks. If you are felt to be a country that is in the business of doing windfall taxes — if you earn profits, the taxman cometh — that is not a hospitable environment for investors.
'It means you mark down the value of UK businesses and mark up the cost of lending money to those businesses. And that is not a good growth strategy over the medium term. Penny wise, pound foolish'
**What does ending 40 years of neoliberalism mean?**
'Have you been to Manchester? You know it’s the embodiment of neoliberalism done well. Success is founded on being a magnetic attractor of capital, or people, of business and culture. That’s what the UK should become'
**What does public control of utilities mean?**
'From kind of full fat nationalisation, which would cost an arm and a leg, right through to tinkering with the regulatory rules. If you’re in the water industry, the energy industry, parts of the transport industry, investors are saying, ‘Hang on a sec, I’m not putting money in here.'
thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
This short threat on the 1989 MOD assessment of the Soviet military threat to the UK may interest @ColdWarPod @NavyLookout @Osinttechnical @alessionaval @ESlibrarian @IBallantyn @edwardstrngr65 @nicholadrummond @FennellJW @geoallison @krakek1 @ajcboyd among others...
Alessio Patalano retweeted
Advanced tank barrel manufacturing returns to Britain after two decades.
A £60m investment in Telford by Rheinmetall will create 100 new jobs in the West Midlands, strengthen UK defence and support economic growth.
Defence investment delivering security, jobs and opportunity 👇
Alessio Patalano retweeted
The Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Defence was asked five times by a member of the Defence Committee whether the Defence Investment Plan settlement is backloaded. Click image for more.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=7…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
The brutality of this is horrendous. So many good reporters have lost their jobs as part of a drive to integrate AI into the newsroom. Artificial intelligence simply cannot replace the experience gained through years of front-line reporting. I know there is a deep sense of betrayal among some of my former Telegraph colleagues. My heart goes out to them.
About a Hundred Telegraph Staff Get 90 Minutes Notice Before Being Sacked order-order.com/2026/10/23/a…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
So much interesting detail in this piece by @danwwang, a fascinating on-the-ground look at the new dynamic between the US and Taiwan.
Would have retweeted this with a memorable quote from the piece, but there were too many.
I went to Phoenix to spend time with the Taiwanese community. TSMC will invest $265 billion and send thousands of engineers and their families, which marvel at their new lives in the Sunbelt
My first feature as a contributing writer to the New York Times:
nytimes.com/2026/10/23/opini…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
The 2027 date for DragonFire on a Type 45 was given three times. Asked this week by what date it will be fitted, ministers referred back to an answer without one. Click image for more.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=7…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
NEW: Britain and France's air forces have united to carry out a simulated nuclear strike in the first drill of its kind, it has been announced.
The war game involved RAF Typhoon warplanes working alongside French Rafale fighter jets over the Mediterranean on Tuesday evening.
News of the exercise, codenamed 'Rummy', was revealed on Friday by Catherine Vautrin, the French armed forces minister.
The drill makes no reference to who the fictional enemy was.
However, it is being seen as a major warning shot to Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, after months of sabre-rattling by Kremlin officials who have threatened the use of nuclear weapons against Western countries supporting Ukraine.
Full story: dailymail.com/news/article-1…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
But Mearsheimer and Posen kept telling us that this was a preventive war against NATO expansion?
Russian President Vladimir Putin cited genetics to declare that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” and reiterated his claim to Ukrainian territory, saying: “I think that it is not their territory but the historical territory of Russia.” wapo.st/48aZaZF
Alessio Patalano retweeted
Brilliant to be on the long list to be the Conservative candidate for Mayor of London.
I’m looking forward to the competition and can’t wait to speak to members all over our great city.
Together, we will make London a city we can all be proud of again.
Alessio Patalano retweeted
Five China Coast Guard vessels shadowed eight Japan Coast Guard ships southwest of Penghu's Qimei Island, outside Taiwan's contiguous zone, as the Japanese ships sheltered from Typhoon Champi on Oct. 22, Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration said.
The JCG group included the helicopter-carrying patrol vessels Reimei (PLH-33), Yashima (PLH-22), and Ryukyu (PLH-09), while the CCG deployed three 3,000-ton cutters and two 5,000-ton Daishan-class vessels. The CGA called on Beijing not to exploit the typhoon to create the false impression that the Taiwan Strait constitutes internal waters.
Alessio Patalano retweeted
Very sad news. @TRSkerritt, who served in the @USAirforce 1951-1956 before taking up acting, famously playing @USNavy Commander Mike 'Viper' Metcalf in @TopGunMovie, among many other roles over a remarkable 60 year career, has sadly passed away aged 93. #RIP
US actor Tom Skerritt, who starred in Picket Fences, Mash and Alien, dies aged 93 bbc.in/3W4llxZ
Alessio Patalano retweeted
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
Alessio Patalano retweeted
Wer noch immer den Blödsinn glaubt, die Nato-Osterweiterung habe mit den Ursachen dieses Krieges etwas zu tun, sollte einfach mal Putin zuhören.
Der sagt ganz offen nach imperialistischer Manier: Ich sehe das als mein Land, deswegen greife ich an und hole es mir.
Putin on Ukraine:
The lands lost by Kyiv are not "their territory"; they are historically Russian lands.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Kyiv predates Moscow by centuries, and southern/eastern Ukraine was ruled by the Cossack Hetmanate and Crimean Khanate long before 18th-century Russian Imperial annexation. In 1991, every Ukrainian region voted overwhelmingly for independence, recognized by Russia 1994.
britannica.com/place/Ukraine/…
treaties.un.org/Pages/showDeta…

































