Authoritarian Warning Survey

Our Oct-Nov expert survey results on threats to American democracy are out! Concerns remain high across the board, with threats rising for elections and civil violence, but falling slightly for executive constraints. /1

The U.S. now clearly exceeds Poland & India (surveyed in April 2017) on average threat levels, although remains better than Hungary. Asked about most concerning events, common answers included Mueller interference, media threats, rule of law, & lack of congr oversight. /end

Majorities rate all six dimensions as outside the norm for consolidated democracies and majorities see serious erosion in media treatment, elections, executive constraints, & rhetoric. Nearly 100% of respondents say that American democracy has declined over the last 10 years. /3

Despite a dip down in threat in September, concerns especially increased on executive constraints and elections. For the first time, concerns about executive constraints exceed threats to media. /2

Feels like an appropriate time for our latest expert survey on American democracy: Ratings on all six dimensions worsened from July to Aug/Sept. Experts now rate a 16.5% chance of democratic breakdown w/in 4 years. /1 authwarningsurvey.com/single…

In light of Trump revoking John Brennan's security clearance for nakedly political reasons, recall what @davidfrum wrote in March 2017 on "How to Build an Autocracy" /1 nytimes.com/2018/08/15/us/po…

Sample comments when asked the most threatening recent event: "asserted right to self-pardon," "undermining of the rule of law through pardons," "banning journalists from press briefings," "unwillingness of Republicans in Congress to push back," & "demonizing of free press." /end

The U.S. still rates worse than India & Poland (surveyed in June 2017), although better than Hungary. 97.6% of respondents aid the quality of American democracy has declined over the last 10 years. /3

A majority of experts say all six dimensions are "outside the norm for consolidated democracies," with a majority rating rhetoric and treatment of media as displaying "serious erosion." The average predicted likelihood of democratic breakdown w/in 4 years is 13.2%. /2

Our July expert survey is out! Threat levels for American democracy remain high across the board, with all six dimensions worse than in April. However, compared to May-June, five of six (all but elections) improved slightly. /1 authwarningsurvey.com/single…

Asked about the most serious recent event, the most common response was attacks/interference w/ the Mueller investigation, followed by media attacks. Also a notable increase of responses pointing to corruption & executive targeting of private businesses (like Amazon). /5

Majorities of respondents rated every dimension as outside the norm for consolidated democracies. Majorities also rated rhetoric, executive constraints, & treatment of media as exhibiting "serious erosion." /4

You can see the threat trends here. Civil liberties threats reached an all-time high in May, likely in reaction to overreach on immigration enforcement. Other dimensions increased just shy of high points in March. /2

Threats to American democracy: Our latest expert survey (covering May-June) is out! Threats worsened on all 6 dimensions compared to April, w/ biggest increases on civil liberties, exec constraints, & rhetoric. U.S. now rates worse than Poland & India. /1 authwarningsurvey.com/single…

"Freedom hath been hunted round the globe... O! receive the fugitive, and prepare in time an asylum for mankind." -- Thomas Paine, Common Sense

Trump's legal team is promoting a view of infinite executive power that not only hearkens back to Charles I, but tries to undo the Magna Carta's principle that even kings must obey the rule of law. Someone tell them how that worked out for John & Charles. nytimes.com/2018/06/04/us/po…