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The morning Swedish police raided The Pirate Bay I was in a strategy meeting at Universal Music in Norway.
Everyone celebrated because the pirate ship was sinking.
"The adults had won" (lol)
Three days later the site was back online.
Different servers and different jurisdiction.
I looked around the office at my colleagues still planning next quarter's CD releases and realized something.
I was working for people who thought they'd won a war that hadn't even started yet.
The Fed didn't announce its rate decisions until 1994.
Before that you had to work it out from what they did in the markets.
In 2011 they started doing press conferences, streamed live.
Bitcoin was two years old.
Now they get clipped and debated over on X before they're even announcing anything.
I think this type of authority only works best at a distance.
The minute people start arguing with it, ending up in replies, the authoritative position starts wearing down.
One thing I'm trying to improve every day is my ability to make sense of my changing reality.
When everything changes it's hard to shift PoV because it is in our nature to try to see the world as we feel it _should_ be.
Fernando Nikolić 🇦🇷 🟠 retweeted
Germany's savings banks started selling bitcoin in their app on Monday. €0.99 a trade.
In January 2025 the head of the Bundesbank called it digital tulips.
THEY BENT THE KNEE 🇩🇪
Fernando Nikolić 🇦🇷 🟠 retweeted
“If Bitcoin ends up just being digital gold, it is a failed project." — Jack Dorsey
Millions in Argentina, Turkey and Canada faced hyperinflation or capital controls.
Nikolić: “Families will be able to save for the future. Massive generational and societal win.” @basedlayer
Fernando Nikolić 🇦🇷 🟠 retweeted
If Bitcoin ends up just being digital gold, the entire world has gained easy access to the hardest asset in history.
Families will be able to save for the future.
Talent would stay in their country to build.
Massive generational and societal win.
If Bitcoin ends up just being digital gold, the entire world has gained easy access to the hardest asset in history.
Families will be able to save for the future.
Talent would stay in their country to build.
Massive generational and societal win.
# The 300-year Chaos Gap
Before Gutenberg, the Catholic Church held a monopoly on God's word.
You could not read the Bible yourself.
A priest read it for you and told you what it meant.
If you wanted access to God, you went through them.
Then the printing press made the Bible available to anyone who could read, and the monopoly collapsed.
What followed was the Reformation, the Enlightenment and the scientific revolution.
Then came the Thirty Years' War, the end of feudalism and the rise of the nation state.
It took roughly 200 to 300 years.
Nobody living through it understood what was happening while it was happening.
I think we are in the same kind of transition now, and it is a long one.
People get anxious, or blackpilled, because they read it on a five-week clock.
A transition like this runs on a three-century clock.
I call the whole stretch the Chaos Gap.
The old institutions are failing and the new ones are still arriving.
It is an uncomfortable place to live.
The church lasted through horses, swords and armies.
What damaged it was people sharing information with each other.
The same thing is happening to the modern priesthoods: central banks, legacy media, institutional education.
The broadcast era, roughly 1950 to 2000, looks to me like the historical anomaly.
Three TV channels decided what was "real"
We are going back to tribal information flows at global scale, and this time the tribes are connected.
**I watched the same thing happen to music.**
The record business sold physical friction.
When file sharing took the friction to zero, the distribution monopoly had no clue how to respond to that.
First the industry ignored it and called it a toy.
Then it fought, with lawsuits against the people distributing the files.
Then it wrapped the protocol and found a way to monetize.
That is how labels ended up owning a stake in Spotify.
**Money follows the same three stages.**
Banks called Bitcoin a toy, then a scam.
Then BlackRock launched a Bitcoin ETF.
That is the wrapper!
IMO an "expert"'s knowledge is fitted to the environment it was built in.
When the environment moves, the data, the models and the track record keep describing the old one.
They are measuring a world that is no longer there.
I think nobody alive today will see the end of it.
Nobody who lived through the printing press did either.
We're not even 20 years into this one.
WELCOME TO THE CHAOS GAP.
when Rome was sacked, most people living in the Roman Empire didn't notice much of a difference in their daily lives
the farmers kept farming, the merchants kept trading, the normies kept norming. life went on
Rome still fell
the fact that you can walk down your street and get a croissant doesn't tell you much about the state of your civilization
but it tells a lot about you
Fernando Nikolić 🇦🇷 🟠 retweeted
There will no longer be a dominating narrative that will drive adoption.
Freedom money will only make sense to a fringe minority, while other things that are cool about bitcoin that's not about freedom money will appeal to other small groups.
That is how adoption will look like in the future.
I think we're way past the time where one big wave of newcoiners will be minted in one cycle because of one narrative.
We'll just be chipping away at it, slowly.
I also think a lot of bitcoiners who have invested too much of their life in this space need to stop thinking that just because they are obsessed with bitcoin that the rest of the world needs to as obsessed as them.
There will no longer be a dominating narrative that will drive adoption.
Freedom money will only make sense to a fringe minority, while other things that are cool about bitcoin that's not about freedom money will appeal to other small groups.
That is how adoption will look like in the future.
I think we're way past the time where one big wave of newcoiners will be minted in one cycle because of one narrative.
We'll just be chipping away at it, slowly.
I also think a lot of bitcoiners who have invested too much of their life in this space need to stop thinking that just because they are obsessed with bitcoin that the rest of the world needs to as obsessed as them.
Fernando Nikolić 🇦🇷 🟠 retweeted
The problem of our time is not merely information overload. It is that the time required to construct a coherent understanding of reality is becoming longer than the time during which that understanding remains valid.
The Fed's goal is "inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run."
Bitcoin's is 21 million.
Now read the Fed's sentence again.
2 percent is specific.
"Over the longer run" takes it back.
Nobody can tell you how long the longer run is.
So the number can be missed for years and the sentence still holds.
21 million comes with no longer run.
It's in the code, and anyone can check it on their own node.
I think that's a big part of why the number stuck.
It's the most specific promise in money.
Never knew I live to see the day the BIS put a meme in its new paper on why money needs central banks.
We need a name for this: The Asymmetry of Synthesis.
Much like Brandolini's Law I think there's a massive energetic imbalance here.
It takes immense human effort to create deep, synthesized content, but an agent can ingest and filter it out in a second.
a big take I've been noodling on and I’m ready to call:
the newsletter is dead
@every's core business is a newsletter with 120k+ subscribers so I don't say this lightly.
persistent agents mean i dont look at my inbox
with dots (GrokBots, Muse, etc) I almost never look at my inbox. if I do it's for a specific thing I need to reply to.
i think in a year I'll be doing all of my email this way - fully filtered by my dot / something like it.
this is not new: it's a continuation of the trend of having a “newsletter” folder in Gmail, but 10x more filtered.
what it means
It doesn’t mean people won't read newsletters, but it does mean that getting a person’s email is no longer the guarantee that you have a relationship with them that it used to.
luckily, with persistent agents (and AI coding more generally) there is an entirely new playing field to build relationships with readers. instead of fighting to get an email address, publishers and creators will need to make sure we're installed in our reader's agent harness of choice, so that they get directly notified when we do something new.
we're already starting to experiment with this @every with our MCP and the frontier alerts we send users of our slack agent (every.to/agent)
it's also more affordable than ever for publishers and creators to build their own platform ecosystem: you can have your own website, app etc. and you can use AI to publish 100x more high-quality stuff to your community—so we may see a world where many creators themselves are running their own little empires that have their own apps, feeds etc.
to be clear: It'll take a while before this actually happens, but the idea of getting someone's email creating a direct relationship with them is over.
here's a set of predictions I made 3 years ago about AI and media that panned out pretty well: every.to/chain-of-thought/we…
Spotted @BTCPerception data @SimplyBitcoin 🤝
FLASHBACK: Former Mt. Gox CEO Mark Karpelès posted photos of a spy implant inside a Ledger on September 16.
For weeks, almost nobody paid attention.
Then wallets started getting drained.
Ledger has now confirmed covert implants in some devices sold through CryptoBilis.
He was warning about the exact attack vector before the market cared.
