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Investor • Fundamentals • Tech • Energy ⚡️

Joined November 2011
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I was able to tour $IREN ‘s Childress site last Friday to talk about BESS.   After seeing in person, I can confirm:   ⚡️The scale and size of their operations are impressive. There were over 400 people on site working that day ⚡️Data centers are very high-end. Squeaky clean, very well put together. ⚡️IREN looks to be on / ahead of schedule working towards 31 EH/s ⚡️Earthworks are already underway for blocks 4 (~150MW of something), block 5 (~150MW of something) and block 6 (~100MW of something) Shoutout to the @IREN_Ltd team for hosting!
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Allied demand for American nuclear fuel accelerates everything we're building here in the US. Thank you to our partners at @ExImBankUS and NEDC for supporting us as we expand abroad.
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📢 $NUAI just signed to acquire full ownership of its flagship #AI datacenter project in West Texas, buying out Sharon AI’s 50% stake in TCDC for $70M. A major step forward in the Permian Basin. Read the release: loom.ly/9zTpvGk
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Added $IREN $5.39. $CIFR $1.92. $HOOD 32.19. $BTC holding up remarkably well.
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$IREN is pleased to announce the signing of a $9.7bn AI Cloud contract with @Microsoft Key details of the transaction: - $9.7bn AI Cloud contract value - 5-year average term - 20% prepayment - 200MW (IT load) data centers - NVIDIA GB300 GPU deployments Refer to the press release and accompanying presentation below for further information Press Release: iren.gcs-web.com/static-file… Presentation: iren.gcs-web.com/static-file…
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*JPMORGAN SAYS 5 MAJOR AI HYPERSCALERS WILL SPEND $1.2 TRILLION COMBINED BY 2027
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$IREN's Next Step into Multi-Cloud (Many of my post long but all are hand written. This one is my coup de grâce.) Everyone is speculating on whether IREN’s next customer is Google, Meta or some other hyper-scale company. This is not the way to look at it. The first step to understanding what will happen is to understand Multi-Cloud. To explain Multi-Cloud, I’ll use an example none other than the Nebius-Shopify relationship. Shopify specifies exactly what their relationship is with NEbius: “we [Shopify] are partnering with GCP, as our main infra provider, and also engaging with neo-cloud providers such as Nebius to utilize large training clusters” (1). In other words, GCP is Shopify’s main cloud but Shopify is using Nebius for GPU intensive functions due to Nebius' lower GPU cost. Before any Nebius analyst jump up and say it’s not for lower cost, further down the Shopify blog post, Shopify says “Our tooling abstracts away from the underlying cloud provider, allowing us to move between vendors to get access to the latest GPUs as they're made available” (1). Shopify is a Tier 1 Tech Company as an E-commerce company but not a Tier 1 AI Research Lab, when Shopify says large training clusters, they mean training clusters are larger than inference but not the massive scale training cluster xAI, OpenAI, etc are building for their next big run. Now why doesn’t Shopify run everything on Nebius? Shopify needs GCP for user analytics, fraud detection, Spanner DB, customer data protection, Identity Services, Dataproc, etc. Let’s put it this way, hyperscalers are hyperscalers for a reason: the breath and depth of their software platform/services. Now why doesn’t Shopify use GCP for everything? GCP is “out” of GPU compute even though Google has already spent $75B in capex, or as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella puts it, “I’m good for my $80B” (2). Note that GCP is not really "out" of GPU compute, but it’s got so much demand that GCP GPU time commands ridiculous prices. In other words, nothing is ever “out”, it just depends on the price. Hyperscalers are conscious in their capex in order to maintain their asset-light model and focus on high margins from IP/Software. Why doesn’t Google just build more datacenter faster and take that free business away Nebius? First, Google is max allocated the capex that it’s investors are comfortable with. Second, Google already maxed out its DC expansion capacity and operations teams. While GPU datacenters are not nearly as complex as TSMC fabs, just like TSMC fabs are not copy and paste, GPU datacenter that have 99.8% uptime are not copy and paste. When you guarantee 99.8% uptime, you are guaranteeing the long tail of hardware bugs. You get hardware bugs that show up on one board and not anther. Some bugs only show up above certain hardware temperatures. Some networking bugs only show up above certain bandwidth and/or certain packet types. Uneven levels of hardware wear across heterogenous and homogenous chips. Inverse logic for poorly documented driver code from the antique ages. Tracing voltage fluctuations all the way down the schematic. God Forbid EMI. Google has already assigned all its teams to build and operate its own datacenters and part of the bottleneck is the training of new teams. Colocation gives Google one of the most important component of power but doesn’t solve all the bottlenecks. The building and more importantly operating of GPU datacenters for IaaS once you have power is not copy and paste! @brianfry01 knows! Thirdly and most importantly, Google doesn’t want to get stuck with all the current gen GPUs - multi-cloud distributes the risk! So what’s the value of IaaS? Why is Microsoft signing a deal with Nebius? By extending Azure compute on top of Nebius IaaS, Microsoft gets X PaaS revenue and pays Nebius Y IaaS revenue where X > Y. X-Y is a cashflow machine for Microsoft without the capex burden, GPU obsolecence risk, and Microsoft like Google cannot build GPU datacenters fast enough anyways. The more important question is how can IREN participate in Multi-Cloud? $NBIS's Inference as a Service stack (3) is: DataOne (Power + DC Construction + DC Physical Operations) with Nebius (DC Design + IaaS + PaaS) = Full Inference Stack’s Value Chain. IREN’s official partner is TogetherAI (4) and TogetherAI’s Inference as a Service stack (5) will be: IREN (Power + DC Construction + DC Physical Operations + DC Design + IaaS) and TogetherAI (PaaS). Now why does inference need PaaS? Didn’t this Jim bro tell me bare metal GPU was the best? When you write inference code for an application, you need to optimize the GPU kernels, CUDA capture graph, and batching for that application. If you are T1 AI Lab, you tune this yourself, but if you are most other Software company working on a Software Application, you just want to focus on the Framework, API calls, DB Schema, fine-tuning your training model, but you don’t care how your inference is optimized as long as it’s optimize. The PaaS portion of “Inference as a Service” is a software service that fine-tunes the application’s inference and runs it on top of bare-metal GPUs. T1 AI Lab will tune it themselves and run on bare metal GPUs. In other words, PaaS is literally a service, not what inference runs on top of. TogetherAI+IREN = Nebius+DataOne and can serve as a AI Cloud in the Multi-Cloud ecosystem. Now here’s the banger. It doesn’t matter if IREN works with TogetherAI or AWS or Microsoft, to IREN they all serve the same purpose: the PaaS layer. Now if AWS/Microsoft is uncertain about IREN’s capabilities, IREN will prove it in its partnership with TogetherAI. In fact TogetherAI needs IREN more than AWS/Microsoft because TogetherAI doesn’t have its power, DC operations, etc, so TogetherAI will give better margins to IREN than AWS/Microsoft. But once AWS/Microsoft sees that IREN can be trusted as Y in its X-Y cashflow machine, it will want IREN IaaS to fight for PaaS market share since PaaS is made by deploying code (aka copy and paste). But just as Nvidia keeps Neoclouds as leverage, it may make sense for IREN to partner with TogetherAI for better margins and better leverage in the relationship. IREN+TogetherAI will be in position to serve as Inference/Small Training Cluster Cloud in Multi-Cloud for companies ranging from startups up to large companies like Shopify. As IREN builds credibility, IREN’s IaaS may be able to partner other strong PaaS/SaaS companies like Databricks. I’ll note that $CRWV PaaS > TogetherAI PaaS which might be the factor to push IREN to consider working with hyperscalers or Databricks, etc. Furthermore, IREN can work with model development focused startups like HumeAI; although HumeAI doesn’t have a PaaS, HumeAI can optimize the GPU kernels, CUDA capture graph, and batching for its own application. This is why Tim Delcourt is in SF: to court the TogetherAI and HumeAI and work with the next generation AI companies.
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In January, I called $IREN, an AI datacenter company with insanely valuable assets (power/permits/compute), a "Picasso at a garage sale" and one of the best ways to hedge against AI risk. If you didn't buy it, you might think you've missed the train after it went up 336% from $11 to $48. That's not the case. It's still massively undervalued. The real move hasn't even started yet and I'm not selling a single share. The current price is $48. But my target price is $300 (⬆7.2x higher). Why do I think it’s worth so much? Because I can do math. IREN is about to control more power than the Hoover Dam. 2,910 megawatts. That’s enough electricity to power San Francisco 3 times over. And they're selling it to the most desperate buyers on Earth: AI companies. For each MW they secure, I estimate they can make $1.5M in profit annually. IREN has 2,910 of them. If they lease that to AI hyperscalers or inference players, they should be able to get about $180/kWM monthly. That's $2.16 million in revenue per MW/year. Now apply typical datacenter margins of 70%, and we have $1.5 million in Funds From Operations (FFO) per MW. Datacenter businesses of this class typically trade at around 20-25x FFO. Let's do the math: 2,910 MW × $1.5M = $4.4B annual FFO × 25 = $110B enterprise value Minus 25% debt (i.e ~$10M/MW in construction costs) = $83B equity value Current market cap: $13B My estimate of intrinsic value as purely a traditional co-location datacenter: $83B That's still 7.2x from here. If the team continues to execute, the stock could hit $300. But this is where the story gets even better… Not only are they crushing it on execution but they also announced this past earnings release that they plan to become their very own Cloud Services Provider (CSP), just like Amazon, Google or Microsoft. They’ve got the largest amount of power of any datacenter company out there, and they’re about to become their own cloud provider. That puts IREN on a path to become the single largest AI datacenter company in the world. So, my $300 per share could be a lay-up. But let’s argue the bear case. What could go wrong? 1. This whole AI thing turns out to be a giant nothing-burger and nobody wants IREN’s power, land, datacenters and servers. Jesen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, just announced that demand for their chips has been insatiable. Then we heard the same thing from Meta, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, and X AI…you get the idea. Power is the bottleneck and IREN has a massive amount of cheap power right now. 2. IREN continues to have a tons of demand but is unable to capitalize on it because they build poor quality datacenters. The pivot from being a bitcoin miner to an AI powerhouse is no small feat. The good thing is that IREN’s founders, Dan and Will Roberts, have done this before. In fact, they’ve been building infrastructure projects like this for decades at one the world’s leading infrastructure banks. If they can’t get it done, I find it hard to believe anyone else can. 3. What if IREN’s competition outsmarts them on strategy and locks in large customers quicker? This has to be on any investor’s mind given what CoreScientific has done with CoreWeave, or what TeraWulf has done with Fluidstack (i.e. Google), or what Nebius has done with Microsoft. While the market has been fixated on a co-location deal, IREN has retained that option while pivoting to an even more lucrative CSP model. The next few quarters will be telling as they prove this out but you can already see in their recent quarterly earnings that they are lining up A-listers like Fluidstack as Cloud Service clients. NVIDIA isn’t handing out chips to the likes of IREN without a clear path to serving customer demand. Only 2% of their nearly 3,000MW of power has been converted to AI, so the best is yet to come, and there isn’t enough power to go around for years into the future. What's it worth in a downside scenario if these things go wrong? We know that the market builds datacenters at a cost of roughly $10M per MW. So, 2,910MW x $10M = $29 billion in market value. That means, in a bear case, where all my assumptions are wrong, IREN is still worth around $106 dollars per share (or 2.2x higher than where they’re trading now). IREN is unique in that they’ve been efficiently building at a cost of $4M per MW, and they’ve done all of it by utilizing their Bitcoin profits, which are approaching $1B per year at current BTC prices without any debt. Simply put, it would cost someone $29B to replace the assets that IREN is currently building, so that’s still a double from here, give or take. The Picasso at the garage sale is is still underpriced - they raised the price from $11 to $48, but it's worth at least $106 and more likely $300 if demand for AI continues to rip. PS: Not investment advice, just math. Do your own research. 🎨
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Kash lays it out: $IREN price speaks for itself. There will be a some dips along the way to $150-$250 but the IREN has the best retail community. Here are the people who took me on this journey for the past 1.5 years: Their post history is gold: 1. @FransBakker9812 - digs through tax abatements, satellite images, f5 IREN's website, power contracts 2. @TheKamaHsutra - digests earnings reports, connects the dots on Nvidia and partner programs, track fiber lines, interconnect agreements 3. @litigious_dulce - anticipating IREN's potential moves ahead of the curve, builds models, deep dives into significant of rack densities, strategies, advantages 4. @Umbisam - has a strong nose for BS, connects information from far out, insane close estimates of BTC production, always on top of dilution, very steady and representive of some big European money 5. @Agrippa_Inv - cleanest written thesis and long research 1. @benemodi - visits IREN sites in person, texas energy expert 2. @JarronJackson4 - analyzes institutional holdings, pulls together industry research of other data center projects 3. @BTCYESPLS - Seed investor pre-IPO 4. @KashRamki - always invest in safe stocks and is risk adverse, for him to be in IREN speaks volumes on how low risk IREN actually is 5. @awilkinson - @KashRamki's buddy, successful entrepreneur, knows early stage business like the back of his hand 6. @roberto45580514 - OG leaves all the facts in the comments 7. @davidwurtz - Cofounder of Google Drive, VP Product at Shopify and sold his Nvidia for IREN, super down to earth 8. @scludweed - expert in his own right, high value reposts of all the people who I don't follow. (I read through every single post from people I follow so I follow few people). 9. @BTCStocksInvest - independent thinker, poses hard questions, manages family fund 10. @McnallieM - best Dan Robert interviews 11. @mikealfred - IREN board of directors, amazing energy
Some are curious why I don't post much about $IREN anymore. The simple truth is that the stock price speaks for itself. I packed my bags and boarded the train almost two years ago. It's only just leaving the station and gathering momentum. There are plenty of seats still available and it isn't stopping anytime soon. Current destination ~$250/share. See you there.
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$IREN's Unique IaaS Proposition: Infrastructure-Heavy, Hardware-Light Yesterday during the Orange Group panel at Pubkey in NYC, @mikealfred explained that one of IREN’s unique advantages compared to other neoclouds is that, by leasing the chips instead of buying them, they are able to return the chips within the lease period and effectively replace them with a newer model. This allows IREN to keep their fleet next-gen or current-gen without having to invest in a completely new fleet, while others are depreciating a previous-gen fleet that’s burdened with an interest-accruing financing instrument but is no longer receiving a premium per GPU hour. Ironically, as a vertically integrated AI infrastructure company, this resembles an asset-light model, where the chips never really have to be owned, yet they can bring returns that—minus interest expenses—yield a profile as if they were owned. IREN prefers optionality and flexibility, but by being vertically integrated and responsible for the data center shell, there is a certain degree of inflexibility when it comes to designing the shell—or is there? There are certain components of a data center shell that can remain in place as GPU generations come and go. Think of electrical redundancy, networking equipment, and—for example—a liquid-cooled plant, UPSs, backup generators, and even substations. In a perfect world, IREN would be able to swap their GPUs every 18 months to keep up with the newest cycles, while having very little retrofit expense, basically no downtime, and effectively a hot-swap to the next-gen chip that’s delivered to them as a preferred partner. But the world isn’t perfect… yet. We are getting there fast. When $NVDA first spoke of “AI factories,” the world was unsure what this really meant. At first, this sounded like a big data center campus that operates a very large cluster of GPUs that all work in sync and power the AI world of tomorrow. Directionally this is correct, but how does it look in practice? Can IREN build and operate an AI factory that has a massive fleet of leased GPUs that can be exchanged for a newer generation every 18 months? To enable the rollout of their newest chips, NVIDIA is advancing in the infrastructure layer to bring not only complete servers but also pod-level systems/reference designs that can be used as a prefab solution for data center halls. These pods can help infrastructure companies such as IREN easily design and create a data center shell that is optimized for rapid deployment of these GPU-ready pods. By tackling the connection between the shell and the chip with a completely integrated pod solution, NVIDIA makes it easier for data center companies to scale faster and deploy chips more rapidly, greatly improving time to market (TTM). So IREN is potentially getting help from NVIDIA to scale faster with a more prefab solution that promotes modularity and general-purpose design, effectively lowering the bar for making a powered shell GPU-ready and reducing the delivery time of a turnkey data center. But what does all this mean for IREN and their prospective clients? We now know that IREN has the ability to capture most of the value chain from raw power all the way to compute. By being vertically integrated, the ownership of land, power, and data center infrastructure brings a high degree of control, while prefab and modular solutions give IREN the optionality to remain flexible in their internal design. Within this structure, IREN brings a GPU lease structure that provides them with the flexibility to return their GPUs and effectively swap them for a newer generation—charging the flywheel with the next-generation chip, which commands the highest premium per GPU hour. This keeps the entire AI cloud operation nimble but highly profitable, while retaining ownership of the assets that do keep their value over time. But this is not just good for IREN internally. By being infrastructure-heavy but “hardware-light,” IREN is a premium choice for clients that are looking for a long-term Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) deal but want to retain the flexibility of having the latest chips. This optionality is a massive differentiator for clients that are looking for a long-term deal—especially when there is a large amount of power involved—but are seeking a counterparty that has the means to deliver. In an IaaS deal, the capital expenditure of the provider typically consists mostly of GPUs, with infrastructure build costs a much smaller part. But that’s just looking at costs. When we look at the $NBIS deal with $MSFT, we can see that there are clauses that give Microsoft the right to terminate the agreement or terminate tranches of the $17.4B maximum contract value. The Nebius 6-K reads “subject to delivery and availability,” which means that delivery is in tranches and must be on time. Moreover, the entire deal is contingent on Nebius having the money lined up. Obviously, with a deal like this, there will be lenders lined up to facilitate financing to Nebius, so I’m not worried about this coming to fruition. That said, when it comes to IREN, they are a much smaller company than Nebius in market cap (at least currently), and even now Nebius is mentioned as a small company compared to Microsoft. So what does this mean for IREN compared to a hyperscaler, and how does this impact concerns about financing from this smaller infrastructure player? This is where the GPU lease structure becomes IREN’s distinctive USP. With GPUs being ~50–70% of total capex for an IaaS provider, removing much of this as a deal liability by having a lease finance structure for the chips provides IREN with a unique position to attract clients that want to go big and wide but retain the optionality to change the chips over the course of the deal period. So here we are, at the forefront of a perfect world: IREN builds and owns the valuable power and infrastructure assets, with the ability to scale fast utilizing prefab pods enabled by NVIDIA to rapidly deploy large clusters of financed GPUs in a lease structure, bringing AI factories with the newest GPU models yearly, in a vertically integrated business model, to prospective clients looking for large amounts of compute but wanting to avoid execution and financing risks. IREN is ready to deliver: power, land, and—soon—data centers will be available. If you had any doubts that IREN may not monetize their entire power portfolio, I request you to reconsider. This is not just about IREN looking for a client; it’s the client that will need to realize what a unique opportunity this deal will be for them.
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Daniel and Will standing next to David Sacks. Arguably the most powerful person in both AI and Crypto. So amazing to see them hanging out with the All-In team.
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"Fastest growing" would imply growth, no? From your source, Energy Institute's Statistical Review of World Energy: Growth of gas, 2014-24: 1.8% Growth of solar, 2014-24: 26.4%. 2024: Gas: 1.2%. Solar: 32% Gas is not the "fastest growing energy source on the planet."
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JUST IN: 🚨 Stablecoin supply on Ethereum hit a new ATH of $172.2 Billion.
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La Paz County, AZ. when this project is fully built out it will store ~5 GWh of solar energy.
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everything is bigger in #Texas except the cost of electricity. sub 2.5¢ / kWh all day $IREN
Today in Texas solar provided more than one-third of the power for 8 straight hours, peaking over 29,000 megawatts at 1:25 for the 3rd highest total ever. Last night, batteries set an all time record @ 7.3 gigawatts. Despite an 80 GW peak, prices have been <2.5c/kWh all day.
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During $IREN ’s earnings presentation, I was surprised to hear @danroberts0101 say, “Bare metal is better. The vast majority of GenAI workloads don’t need virtualization. They need direct access to resources to run training, inference, and experimentation with maximum performance and low latency.” Most experts on X argue that the total addressable market for bare metal is small, and the internet is never wrong about this sort of stuff. Accordingly, I had to ask myself: was Dan just talking his own book? Not really, because the above quote isn't even from IREN; it's from $CRWV. So let's talk about this, starting with an overview of bare metal. ----------------------- Bare metal servers are physical machines that provide direct access to hardware without a virtualization layer. By eliminating the hypervisor, tenants gain predictable performance, better GPU utilization, and full control over the operating system and software stack. This makes bare metal ideal for workloads that demand consistency and efficiency, particularly GPU-intensive AI training. While traditional cloud platforms emphasize virtualization for flexibility and multi-tenancy, certain clients—often hyperscalers, HPC labs, or advanced enterprises—demand bare metal because they already have their own orchestration layers like Kubernetes and want maximum performance without additional abstraction. For IREN, pursuing bare metal positions the company in the highest-value segment of the AI cloud market. By offering infrastructure at the hardware level, IREN can appeal directly to sophisticated buyers who don’t need managed services—just guaranteed access to compute at scale. This approach plays to IREN’s strengths: its experience in procuring power, optimizing data centers, and deploying large fleets of hardware quickly from its Bitcoin mining roots. Unlike a virtualized cloud that requires heavy investment in proprietary software stacks (which IREN admittedly lacks), bare metal can be delivered with relatively little engineering overhead, while still commanding premium demand. Strategically, bare metal also supports IREN’s financing model. Long-term contracts with creditworthy hyperscalers and enterprises provide stable utilization and predictable cash flows. This in turn allows IREN to raise asset-backed financing for GPUs and data centers, fueling its growth flywheel. And because IREN doesn’t bear the expense of building a large managed-services layer, it can undercut peers like CoreWeave or Nebius while still achieving attractive returns. The result is an “Uber/Amazon” style pricing strategy that enables rapid market share capture at a time when GPU demand far outstrips supply. In this context, IREN’s close relationship with Fluidstack is revealing. Fluidstack is an AI-focused GPU cloud provider that specializes in orchestrating large-scale bare metal clusters. Its technical expertise lies in cluster setup: tuning InfiniBand or Ethernet fabrics, optimizing NCCL and MPI libraries, integrating high-performance storage, and managing scheduling and recovery across thousands of nodes. The relationship between IREN and Fluidstack probably is as follows: IREN is highly capable when it comes to data center build-out. They know how to procure power, install substations and switchgear, design cooling systems, and maximize rack density. They handle GPU burn-in, racking, and cabling, and make sure the physical environment can support high-density compute. What they do not specialize in, however, is distributed AI cluster tuning. Their expertise lies in infrastructure engineering, not in the HPC software stacks that are essential for turning thousands of GPUs into a usable training cluster. This is where Fluidstack’s mastery comes in. Fluidstack has built Atlas OS specifically for managing multi-thousand GPU clusters. They know how to configure Kubernetes and SLURM at scale for AI workloads and have extensive experience in benchmarking and performance tuning to achieve more than 95 percent scaling efficiency. They integrate advanced storage systems such as DDN and VAST, use NVMe burst buffers, and deploy custom networking stacks to ensure smooth data flow during training. Their track record with companies like Mistral, Character.AI, Aleph Alpha, and Black Forest Labs demonstrates that they have already set up and optimized these kinds of massive clusters for real-world clients. In practice, IREN racks the GPUs and provides the high-bandwidth networking that ties them together, while Fluidstack turns that raw hardware into a coherent AI cluster capable of scaling training across thousands of nodes. This is why sovereign AI programs, startups, and enterprises rely on Fluidstack: they don’t want to invest the time and expertise required to make 4,000 GPUs behave like a single machine. Fluidstack has the tools and experience to do it for them. The key division of labor, then, is clear. IREN is the infrastructure builder, focused on physical capacity and efficiency. Fluidstack is the cluster builder, stitching that infrastructure into usable, high-performance compute environments with Atlas OS, orchestration, tuning, and reliability. In this technical sense, Fluidstack is the master of large-scale cluster setup. Nonetheless, the partnership with Fluidstack gives IREN more than just a reliable demand channel; it provides access to world-class expertise in cluster setup and orchestration. By working closely together with Fluidstack, IREN benefits from direct knowledge transfer—learning how InfiniBand networks are tuned, how NCCL and MPI libraries are optimized, and how storage and schedulers are configured for distributed AI training at scale. This collaboration effectively accelerates IREN’s climb up the value chain. In the short term, Fluidstack ensures utilization and cash flow, making IREN’s financing flywheel spin faster. Over time, IREN absorbs the operational know-how that will allow it to eventually handle more of the orchestration and customer-facing layers itself. The result is a symbiotic relationship: Fluidstack gains access to high-density infrastructure, and IREN not only monetizes its GPUs but also builds the technical competence needed to compete directly in the AI cloud market. ----------------------- By partnering with leading AI companies like Fluidstack (and Together.ai), IREN is steadily enhancing its credibility and accelerating its evolution from a pure infrastructure builder into a sophisticated AI cloud provider. These collaborations validate IREN’s ability to host some of the most demanding workloads in the industry, while also exposing it to best-in-class practices in cluster orchestration, software integration, and customer delivery. The result is not only immediate utilization of its GPU fleets but also a transfer of knowledge and competencies that strengthens its long-term positioning, enabling IREN to compete more effectively with established CSPs and reinforcing its reputation as a credible partner in the global AI ecosystem.
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Between $IREN ‘s Sweetwater and Childress sites, they will own ~ 5% of all U.S. data center growth between now and 2030. Maybe higher depending on grid constraints in other states. 2.75 GW / 55 GW 🤯
A Brief History of the Texas Grid and How It's Becoming the Epicenter of the AI Energy Boom Through Free Market Economics ---------------- The Texas grid, managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), is a unique and often misunderstood marvel among global energy delivery systems. Despite criticisms in recent years around its reliability, now being resolved with record installations of battery storage, it delivers exceptionally cheap energy, in an open market, powering 90% of the 8th largest economy by GDP in the world. It is a creature born with the complex DNA of vast geography, an energy rich history, deregulation and the spirit of independence that makes Texas famous – a culture where things just get done. ---------------- It started in the late 1800s, with local power plants for ice factories. Excess energy was sold to businesses, sparking small, scattered utilities across a gigantic state. By WWI, companies consolidated, and in 1935 when the Federal Power Act was passed, Texas utilities avoided federal regulations by refusing interstate connections, creating their own "electrical island”, in classic Republic of Texas style. The 1960s-70s saw the feds set up Eastern/Western grids, but Texas formed ERCOT in 1970, as its own operator, to dodge Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) oversight and keep control in-state. ---------------- From 1995-2002, deregulation set the stage. New legislation in Texas broke up its utility monopolies and restructured its electricity market. Wholesale energy markets opened first (1995) and then retail (1999-2002). This let consumers pick their power providers - unlike most other states. Most utilities around the world are vertically integrated, where one company controls everything: generation, transmission, and the retail sale of electrons in its service area. They are monopolistic structures that almost always result in higher electricity prices. Post 2002, most Texans could now choose their electricity provider. Generation, transmission, and retail were split up. Transmission stayed regulated via ERCOT, but power plants and retail suppliers now had to compete to deliver electricity to their customers. ---------------- With a free market for electricity formed and Texas’s notoriously low regulatory environment to build, three other tailwinds came into play: · The Production Tax Credit (PTC) launched in 1992 with a per-kilowatt-hour incentive for wind energy and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) was created in 2005 for solar energy. · Post 2008, the U.S. shale boom and fracking renewed Texas as an oil and gas powerhouse. · From 2005 – 2013, Texas invested $7B in state-backed Competitive Renewable Energy Zone (CREZ) transmission lines. These connected rural wind farms to urban demand centers, boosting reliability and renewable integration across the state. ---------------- Low-cost renewables and cheap gas started flooding an open wholesale market, igniting a boom of economic activity and new electrical capacity. By 2025 Texas has: · Become to the largest single-state grid in the U.S. by all-in grid capacity, ~173 GW, compared to California’s ~98 GW in 2nd place (2025). · Built out ~40 GW of wind, ~32 GW of utility-scale solar and over 14 GW of grid connected batteries, making Texas the most renewables rich state in the U.S.A. · Seen a steep drop in electricity prices, with wholesale rates plunging from ~$63/MWh in 2023 to ~$29/MWh in 2024. At times, even negative power prices happen, especially in West Texas, when excess wind / solar still overwhelm transmission lines. ---------------- Enter data centers and the increasing demand loads to power AI. U.S. data‑center load is projected to increase by ~55 GW over the next six years, from ~25 GW in 2024, to ~80 GW by 2030. Naturally, this demand will strain the grid and add upwards price pressure to electricity prices. In markets where power is already expensive, high prices and capacity shortfalls are already turning data centers into political targets, see the NJ/NY bills and hearings below 👇 newjerseymonitor.com/2025/05… pbs.org/video/as-soaring-ele… timesunion.com/capitol/artic… But Texas, by design, leans toward “connect and compete”. So where will most big data center builds happen? In the free market, where big loads are easier and cheaper to connect 🫱Texas. ---------------- ERCOT has already seen unadjusted requests for ~78 GW of potential data‑center load by 2030, but not all projects will get built. If half of these data center load requests convert, ERCOT will add ~39 GW of new Texas DC load out of ~55 GW of total U.S. growth. This means that Texas is poised to capture ~70% of U.S. data center growth by 2030. To support this, Texas just approved a new 765 kV “power superhighway” plan (~$33B spend) to support high-demand regions like the Permian Basin, an upgrade over the existing 345 kV system. ---------------- Time to market and price are king. 👑 Texas’s market structure wins on both points. 🥇 Deregulated markets = faster builds. ⏱️ Cheap energy = cheap compute. 🤖 Backed up by cheap renewables, cheap gas, a structure that rewards speed, expanding transmission, and rapid energy storage buildouts. Texas is the logical hub to dominant AI data center growth over the coming years. and we are already seeing this with a flurry of builds planned from Dallas to West Texas over the coming years. The future of AI may be written in Silicon Valley, but it will be powered in Texas. #TEXAS #AI @ERCOT_ISO $IREN $CIFR
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