Evil speculator. Austrian economist. Cycle theorist. Market analysis & Systems Engineering. Bitcoin Ex Machina.

Paper St.
Joined March 2014
Yep.
103
252
70
2,424
427,542
Wall street takes infinite risk then pushes it off onto unsuspecting pensions and retirements funds. At what point is this considered systemic fraud?
BREAKING: "Speculative data center debt is being repackaged and sold to pension and retirement funds, university endowments, and other institutional investors in a manner eerily reminiscent of the subprime bubble," per AFR
173
I’m beginning to think the inflation rate is whatever the person writing the article wants it to be.
Millennials aren’t as bad off as you think, per the Economist. The Economist gathered income data for millennials in 32 rich countries. In only three, Italy, Greece and Japan, are millennials worse off than earlier generations. In the other 29, millennials earn more after inflation than past generations did.
1
215
Apparently this weeks FUD is that AI is going to prove P=NP and all I can do is shake my head and wonder why this nonsense always seems to originate from the Ethereum camp.
1
2
173
He said the quiet part out loud
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says inflation could pay down the $40 trillion US national debt "very rapidly."
1
7
405
Why do we continue this charade? Just abolish the limit and admit the money will be printed into oblivion.
GOP WEIGHS DEBT-LIMIT HIKE BEFORE NEW CONGRESS Republican lawmakers are considering raising the U.S. debt ceiling during the post-election lame-duck session, potentially using budget reconciliation to avoid needing Democratic votes. House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington has floated a roughly $4 trillion increase, after Congress raised the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion in 2025. The proposal would address borrowing needs expected to become more pressing in 2027, while Congress also faces a Dec. 11 government-funding deadline.
3
9
664
Boomers be like; Let me buy this collapsing asset to guarantee a yield that doesn’t beat inflation.
1
4
278
These scam artists will stop at nothing to dump their bags on you.
I’ve never been more bullish on anything as I am on $ZEC. It has a cracked and functional dev team. It’s quantum recoverable. It doesn’t have the Saylor overhang. On narrative it's a simple pitch. Everyone missed Bitcoin but actually Bitcoin has some problems and now maybe you get another go. When you zoom all the way out on the chart it has the helpful first candle that makes everything since look small. It implements Satoshi's original digital cash vision which Bitcoin failed to achieve. It's not tied to fundamentals - it's only comp is Bitcoin which is 50x the price. So in a bull market it can absorb all the excess liquidity. And right now people are targeting 10% of Bitcoin's price as a goal. But if it gets there the goal will shift to a full flippening. And at that point it would seem possible. Tbh I think maybe it is possible.
3
326
There is a direct correlation between rising bond yields and the sudden urgency for AI companies to go public. They're running out of easy money.
7
220
Companies that don't make profits can only exist in fiat land.
*OPENAI TARGETS $30 BILLION IN FUNDING AT $1.4 TRILLION VALUE
4
302
People don't understand that ZEC is not going parabolic because it's a better bitcoin. It's going parabolic because it's a pump and dump scheme that hijacks retail investors fear of missing out in an effort to enrich insiders at the expense of anyone stupid enough to buy it.
People don’t understand that $ZEC is not going parabolic because it’s a privacy coin. It’s going parabolic because they have a clear path to a quantum resistant protocol into 2027 AND they have privacy AND it’s the same tokenomics as BTC. If it was this bullish from privacy features alone, then Monero would be 5x higher because it’s much better at privacy than Zcash is. Quantum resistant BTC is the main narrative in my opinion.
5
287
Lesson in there.
In bear markets it's better to buy at reasonable targets then wait in hopes of ticking the bottom. Buying 70 or 80k bitcoin won't matter when price crosses 200k. Waiting for 40 or 50k and missing your entry will.
1
234
Slow motion detonation.
The landmine whose detonation will usher in an era of unprecedented printing is already planted, and it's sitting right here. Say it with me; the government cannot afford 5% yield on the 10y.
6
240
Insiders will say anything to keep this bubble inflated.
GPT-6 Astra, trained on ~100K+ NVIDIA Grace Blackwell NVLink72. From ChatGPT to o1 to Astra in 4 years. AGI has arrived. Congratulations @OpenAI team. 400K GPUs coming online next.
287
The human condition is fascinating.
251
I have a new attitude towards the housing market. Tell me what it was worth in 2019, add ~20% and that's todays fair market price. Anything more is sellers dreaming of suckers.
Currently the #1 most motivated seller in Bigfork, #3 in Montana and #112 nationwide. Peak ask: $5,875,000 Current ask: $2,450,000 Total markdown: $3,425,000 (-58%)
3
483
A perfect study in mainstream market psychology. The bottom is never THE bottom, and the top is never THE top. A great look through the window of why retail investors buy tops and sell bottoms.
Her advice to wait to buy for lower lows would have massively SCREWED YOU OVER Bitcoin at $80K She’s waiting for the $40K’s like it’s the new $12K She’s a Layah
1
488
Businesses can and will continue to raise prices as long as the S&P continues to go vertical. When the game of musical chairs stops the chaos will ensue.
Unfortunately, business has figured out that the "mass affluent" American can and will pay seemingly ANY price. They keep raising the price and sales don't decrease. It's like an experiment. The MBA's must be amazed by the ironclad nature of consumer demand.
2
341
It looks like the 10y bond landmine is in the process of detonating.
The landmine whose detonation will usher in an era of unprecedented printing is already planted, and it's sitting right here. Say it with me; the government cannot afford 5% yield on the 10y.
4
292
The 401k situation is far worse than people think. This assumes 3% inflation (real inflation is way higher). Then add in your basic .25-.75% management fee. The real value you get out after ~30 years will be a small fraction of what you put in. People better learn about inflation and hard assets before it's too late.
Americans will put $2.8 million into their 401k over a career and end up with $750,000 of actual spending power. If you max out your 401k at $23,500 per year for 30 years at 8% annual returns, you accumulate roughly $2.8 million on paper. But $2.8 million in 2055 buys what $1.1 million buys today after average inflation of 3% per year. Then the IRS takes 25% to 35% on the way out. You're after tax, inflation adjusted number lands at around $750,000. 30 years of locking up capital and zero access during your highest earning decades. A 10% penalty if you touch it before 59.5 years old. A menu of mutual funds your employer picked for you. All for $750,000 at retirement age. The 401k was designed in 1978 as a supplement to pensions and social security. Pensions are mostly gone. Social security will almost certainly pay reduced benefited for anyone under 45. For high earners, putting every available dollar into a vehicle you cannot touch for 30 years while ignoring assets that generate cash flow today is an expensive mistake and decision.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The post's math frames pre-tax 401(k) contributions as full after-tax costs and uses a fixed annual limit, overlooking immediate tax savings from reduced taxable income and IRS annual inflation adjustments to caps. schwab.com/learn/story/40… irs.gov/newsroom/401k-…
3
506