Chair of Data and Technology for the Madison (AL) County Democratic Party. Degrees in Economics and Mathematics.
Huntsville, AL
Joined August 2026
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Now RE-introducing the NEW AND IMPROVED 2026 Alabama Legislative Forecast!
jacksonahannan.github.io/ala…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
18k 18-29 voters in GA today, 53% of the same day in 2024, by far the highest %24 day so far. Today only:
Black 18-29: 77.3% of 2024
White 18-29 voters in blue ATL counties: 51.9%
White 18-29 in the rest of the state: 31.3%
Cumulative numbers below
The more Hispanic a precinct, the better it is holding up compared to the comparable time period in 2024
Texas early voting:
Trumpier precincts are doing poorly compared to the comparable time period in 2024.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
TEXAS IPEV DAY 7 UPDATE
Day 7 was a good day for Republicans in partisanship, even if the actual raw counts were down. All the major metros tracked saw a fairly precipitous drop - somewhat expected, from 2024 - but slightly steeper. This could be a consequence of the Dem day 1-2 surge.
Interestingly, the South Texas counties (Hidalgo, Cameron, Nueces) appear to have stabilized. Nueces actually posted its best day for Dems. Jefferson (heavily black Dem base in Beaumont/Port Arthur) posted a really good drop for Dems too.
These deep-red areas are not getting bluer electorates for Dems - if anything, they're getting redder. Potter had a redder day than 2024 yesterday, as did Randall.
We now added one more county - Montague (rural, Trump +78). We are seeing a pattern. Montague has gotten redder every day... but like all the Dark MAGA... TURNOUT!
Hardin County (R+76): 62% of 2024
Montague (R+78): 65% of 2024
Deaf Smith (R+52): 73% of 2024
Wilson (R+54): 74% of 2024
These areas have redder electorates (or in the case of some of the Beaumont-area WWC, neutral ones), but their turnout is just down. Separately, the non-Dark MAGA white areas are starting to turn on.
Latino turnout continues to be strong in the urban areas, and black turnout continues to be objectively strong despite not as good as Latino turnout.
Once again, the electorate only refers to the 2024-voters. Lots of 0/3s and newly registered voters. On day 7, 20% of voters in Fort Bend were non-2024. 21% in Cameron/Hidalgo. In Potter, ~20% as well - and 35% of these are Hispanic, with 32% 18-29, 22% as 30-44.
Lots of data to pore over - the hunt continues! Enjoy!
Interactive: claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
I mapped the 1996 Wyoming presidential election by precinct. While it varied by state how much Perot took from Dole vs Clinton, in Wyoming it's clear he took more from Dole given 1996-2000 shifts.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Another flop Montgomery hour in the books🫡 (% of 2024 hourly total)
Jackson Hannan retweeted
NEW from DeCalibrate: Republicans Are Preparing for Southern Armageddon
Over the last week, the GOP has poured MILLIONS into deep-red seats, the reddest near unanimously in the Great Plains & South. They're CLEARLY expecting a Bible Belt tsunami.
decalibrate.substack.com/p/r…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Montgomery is doing horrendously today. It's tracking at like 85% of *Saturday* in these last few hours, and it hasn't had a single hour break 70% of 2024. Week 2's Monday was Montgomery's biggest day in 2024, so the expectation was that today would be massive, but it's just not.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Excited to announce that @lxeagle17, @Thorongil16, @admcrlsn, and I will host three X Spaces ahead of next Tuesday’s midterm elections to discuss polling, forecasts, early voting, and more. We’ll also take your questions along the way.
We’ll stay flexible on topics, but here’s the rough plan:
Tuesday, October 27 | 8:30–10 p.m.
We’ll break down the state of play in the House and Senate, national polling, demographic trends, and the persuasion and turnout dynamics we’re watching.
Friday, October 30 | 8:30–10 p.m.
With early voting nearly complete across most key states, we’ll discuss what we’ve learned, including a close look at Texas with @Thorongil16. We’ll also talk about what the emerging electorate means for whom candidates need to persuade to win.
Monday, November 2 | 7:30 p.m. – ???
Our final thoughts, a breakdown of key races, and what to watch as results come in Tuesday night. We’ll help you get ready to follow election night like a pro.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Going to the Visayas🗺️What are the islands that pique your interest? political stronghold, competitiveness, dramatic swings, or simply a place with a riveting voting pattern
Get your maps or just explore <-> drop a message/comment for the link to the interactive board.
@DeusXMachina14 @QuingAndre
Jackson Hannan retweeted
In yesterday's Brazilian presidential election, Lula improved on his margin over Bolsonaro in each of the country's states. Capitalizing on increased turnout, Lula saw an over five point shift towards him in the second round.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
11 AM Update: Dems still maintain the smallest of leads but it should flip in the next few minutes
IPEV: R+16.5
Mail: D+12
IPEV+Mail: R+10
Dems lead statewide by 1700
Feeling good about my R+15 IPEV prediction today might be a little lower.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
This week @StateNavigate
Tuesday: Vermont Governor poll
Wednesday: Georgia Governor poll
Thursday: Minnesota Governor poll
Friday: Nagasaki
Saturday: TBD
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Here are the 2024 results for the states Trump & Vance are visiting in the home stretch:
Mississippi: 🔴 Trump +23
Texas: 🔴 Trump +14
Ohio: 🔴 Trump +11
Florida: 🔴 Trump +13
Iowa: 🔴 Trump +13
Montana: 🔴 Trump +20
Kansas: 🔴 Trump +16
Michigan: 🔴 Trump +1
Avg: 🔴 Trump +14
This week, President Donald J. Trump will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Corinth, Mississippi
TUESDAY (10/27): Corpus Christi, Texas
TUESDAY (10/27): Lubbock, Texas
WEDNESDAY (10/28): Chillicothe, Ohio
FRIDAY (10/30): Daytona, Florida
SUNDAY (11/1): Dubuque, Iowa
Vice President JD Vance will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Belgrade, Montana
MONDAY (10/26): Topeka, Kansas
TUESDAY (10/27): Howell, Michigan
MORE TO COME... 👀
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Literally gaining everywhere. Also he may outperform his 2022 margin (short of 2%) 93.2% counted
🟥#Lula 60.0 Million (51.7%)
🟦#Flavio 56.4 Million (48.3%)
Yeah this is JOEVER
#Brazil #Eleições2026
Lula is gaining in every state vs. Round 1
Estimates 🟥LULA 51.4% (+6.2)
🟦FLAVIO 48.6% (+1.6)
104.8 Million counted/85.2% reporting
🗺️@ElxMapping electionenjoyer.com/brazil/a… #Brazil🇧🇷 #Lula
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Every day has been >100% of 2024 turnout.
Each day has seen non-2024 voters grow their share of the total daily turnout (13% on day 1, 20% on day 6).
Most interestingly, the areas with the strongest turnout increases are the rural, low-education areas outside of core McAllen-Edinburg.
These are the Trumpiest parts of the Valley, and also are seeing the highest concentrations of non-2024 voters.
