FC

Russia's 48-hour-long massive Geran drone attack on Ukraine has finally concluded. Over 1,400 Geran-4/5 jet-drones and Geran-2 drones were used in total, attacking dozens of different towns and cities across 22 out of 23 regions (excluding Kherson Oblast due to the ceasefire). Of these 1,400 drones, around 1,000 Geran-2/Gerberas and 400 Geran-4/5s were used. The main targets were electrical substations and railway infrastructure, as well as some airbases used by the Ukrainian Air Force. Widespread power outages occurred across large parts of Ukraine, including the cities of Dnipro and Kyiv, and the implementation of rolling blackouts has been intensified. In the second half of the attack (the last 24 hours), explosions were heard in/near the following locations: - Lviv City - Hlyniany, Lviv Oblast - Kremenets, Ternopil Oblast - Dubno, Rivne Oblast - Kostopil, Rivne Oblast - Hoshcha, Rivne Oblast - Rivne City - Manevychi, Volyn Oblast - Netishyn, Khmelnytskyi Oblast - Slavuta, Khmelnytskyi Oblast - Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi Oblast - Horodok, Khmelnytskyi Oblast - Letychiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblast - Derazhnya, Khmelnytskyi Oblast - Khmelnytskyi City - Chernivtsi City - Mohyliv-Podil's'kyi, Vinnytsia Oblast - Turbiv, Vinnytsia Oblast - Kozyatyn, Vinnytsia Oblast - Lypovets, Vinnytsia Oblast - Illintsi, Vinnytsia Oblast - Vinnytsia City - Chudniv, Zhytomyr Oblast - Rudnya-Horodyshche, Zhytomyr Oblast - Ozerne, Zhytomyr Oblast - Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr Oblast - Zhytomyr City - Uman, Cherkasy Oblast - Cherkasy City - Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast - Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast - Bucha, Kyiv Oblast - Irpin, Kyiv Oblast - Brovary, Kyiv Oblast - Kalynivka, Kyiv Oblast - Multiple different districts of Kyiv City - Vylkove, Odesa Oblast - Usatove, Odesa Oblast - Mayaky, Odesa Oblast - Odesa City - Dolyns'ka, Kirovohrad Oblast - Baburka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Rozumivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Vilnyansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Synelnykove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast - Oril'ka, Kharkiv Oblast - Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast - Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast - Rohan, Kharkiv Oblast - Vasyshcheve, Kharkiv Oblast - Kharkiv City - Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast - Hlobyne, Poltava Oblast - Putyvl, Sumy Oblast - Konotop, Sumy Oblast - Shostka, Sumy Oblast - Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast - Nosivka, Chernihiv Oblast The first half (24 hours) of the attack involved a little over 600 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and focused primarily on targeting energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as well as railway and energy infrastructure across Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, and Ternopil Oblast. There were also a large number of strikes on Kyiv and its surroundings, and heavy attacks on Sumy City and its surroundings. Southern Ukraine (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) were largely spared from attacks. The second half (24 hours) of the attack involved around 700 Geran-2/4/5 drones, and continued to focus on energy and railway infrastructure in the western regions of Ukraine, although strikes on Ternopil Oblast were swapped for heavier attacks on the neighbouring Rivne Oblast. Kyiv and its surroundings continued to see a lot of activity, although this decreased compared to the first half. Odesa Oblast was struck this time, and there was also more activity seen in Zaporizhzhia Oblast too. Strikes on energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava Oblasts decreased compared to the first half. In my opinion, this is a prelude to the upcoming combined missile and drone attack involving strategic aviation, which will likely occur sometime this week. It has helped exhaust Ukrainian air defence and aviation capabilities, and put further strain on the power grid, which will be hit even harder once the missiles start flying. I will make a separate post about the preparations for this upcoming missile attack in the near future. I do find it funny, though, that this massive attack involving over 1,400 long-range drones, hundreds of successful strikes, and almost every region of Ukraine hit was almost entirely ignored in the information space in favour for two Russian refineries being hit by a few Ukrainian drones each. (Note: The attached map shows only the strikes from the second half of the attack. You can find the map of the first half in the quoted post)