Andy Ellis (@ndls61) header
Andy Ellis (@ndls61) profile picture

Impermissibly manifesting beliefs since 2012. Respect ends when speech & belief is compelled. My thoughts & language are sacrosanct. #EuropeFirst #SlavaUkraini

Edinburgh, Scotland
Joined September 2012
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Andy Ellis retweeted
我说一个爆论:马斯克和特朗普这两个人的关系,会从盟友变为人质关系。 中期选举的第二天,前美国国务卿希拉里说了一句非常奇怪的话:“那就让他们赦免马斯克吧,然后我们把他叫过来,看看他有什么要说的。” 一个曾经在大选上输给特朗普的人,主动劝特朗普去赦免自己最大的金主。明眼人一看就知道这是个陷阱,且是希拉里当年的复仇。 先讲讲马斯克在过去两年到底担任什么样的身份。他首先有三重身份: 第一个是金主。这次选举他总共给共和党砸了将近4亿多美元,比2024年总统大选还要多。结果呢两院全丢。选举当天他在自己的平台X上面发了一条“今天投红”,结果出来后第二天删了,然后自嘲了一句:“看来我那台干预选举的太空激光这次没起作用。” 第二是官员。2025年呢他做了将近130天的DOGE,砍机构拿数据。然后6月跟特朗普开撕翻脸,最后又在9月和好。10月份呢特朗普给他挂了美国国家科学奖章,称之为“我们这个时代的爱迪生”。 第三种身份他是一个承包商。SpaceX今年拿了联邦合同将近70亿美元,比去年翻了将近一倍。金穹防御系统、五角大楼的AI项目都有马斯克的身影。这三重身份在共和党控制的国会当中是三张牌,中期选举之后他们变成了三个把柄。 民主党的下一任众议院监督委员会主席加西亚,选举第二天就发了两个单词:“Lawyer up.”找律师吧。第二天呢他在PBS上说得更加直接:“国会各个委员都会对马斯克和他的公司感兴趣,我们绝对有问题要问他。”而希拉里在选举夜说的是具体的问题:“DOGE到底拿走了什么样的数据?你的社保数据、医保数据现在在哪里被用来做什么?”那特朗普怎么办呢? 中期选举的大败,总统失去的是政治这把尺子,但权力呢会流向行政工具。而赦免是所有行政工具当中最纯粹的一个,它不需要国会不需要法院签字就直接能生效。所以特朗普上周在纽约邮报上的播客被问到会不会提前赦免马斯克和DOGE的人,他说如果需要我会的当然。被问到民主党会不会抓马斯克动SpaceX,他说那只是说说而已,但如果是真的我们也得保护他们。 那么现在你再听希拉里那句话为什么她希望特朗普赦免马斯克?因为美国法律有一个100多年的规则,一个人如果接受了总统赦免,那他就不能再被对赦免的事情引用第五修正案拒绝作证,因为他已经没有了自证其罪的风险。换句话说赦免是一把钥匙,它打开的不是牢门而是证人席的门。 特朗普如果不赦免马斯克可以在听证会上一路用我拒绝回答来回应。特朗普一旦赦免了马斯克就必须回答,而且赦免只管联邦管不到州。 马斯克的公司总部在德州,德州这次翻蓝,新的德州总检察长已经说要彻查星链拿的州政府补贴,新的州长呢要暂停数据中心的建立,这些华盛顿一张纸也救不了。 所以我对这两个人未来两年的判断是三句话。首先第一,特朗普呢不会真的提前赦免马斯克,他会一直把这件事挂在嘴边当筹码来用。赦免是他对马斯克最大的权力,一旦用掉他对马斯克就没有权力了,而且还得帮民主党人打开证人席位。 第二,马斯克呢会被传唤,大概率会在新国会的头一百天。他的选择是拒绝作证拒绝出席,然后呢把每一次听证会变成一场秀。而他每拒绝一次,特朗普那句如果需要我会赦免Elon就更加金贵。 第三,马斯克和特朗普这两个人的关系会从盟友变为人质关系。马斯克需要特朗普保合同保赦免,而特朗普需要马斯克在2028年的钱和星穹的进度。谁都离不开谁当然谁也都互不信任。去年6月份那场撕破脸是在没有国会压力情况下发生的,那么接下来两年压力每天都在。 这三重风险接下来两年都不会同时消失。而作为AI的科技巨头马斯克他不是第一个也不会是最后一个,在联邦和州之间两头压轴的科技公司这两年估计都得学会同时做人。
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Andy Ellis retweeted
Jon Ossoff was 16 when he finished reading John Lewis’s memoir and wrote him a letter. He asked if he could interview him, spend some time with him, anything that would let him learn from the man whose book he had just read. He didn’t expect an answer. Lewis wrote back and invited him to work in his congressional office. There was something about that letter Lewis would have understood. He had written one himself at 17. A college near his home in Alabama had never answered his application, and Lewis wanted to challenge its segregation. He wrote to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. without telling his parents or his teachers. King did not just write back; he sent Lewis a round-trip Greyhound ticket to Montgomery so they could talk in person. Oh my! The first time Lewis and Ossoff sat down for a meal, Lewis spent about an hour and a half telling him about the rabbis and Jewish activists who had marched alongside him in the South. Ossoff was a Jewish kid from Atlanta. He knew from the book what had happened to Lewis on the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, where a state trooper fractured his skull during a march for voting rights. Now Lewis was telling him who had walked beside him. The internship lasted a few months. The friendship lasted 17 years. In 2017, when Ossoff ran for Congress and lost, Lewis was there on election night. A reporter saw him sitting in a small room next to the party, looking out into the room. Later that night, Lewis came out and told the crowd how glad he was that he had answered the letter Ossoff sent him in high school. Lewis died in July 2020, six months before Ossoff won his first Senate race. When Ossoff took the oath of office, he had copies of two old passenger lists in his jacket pocket. One recorded his great-grandfather Israel’s arrival at Ellis Island in 1911. The other recorded his great-grandmother Annie’s arrival two years later. In his hand was a book of Hebrew scripture that had belonged to Rabbi Jacob Rothschild, who led the Atlanta synagogue where Ossoff had his bar mitzvah (this is a Jewish coming-of-age milestone for a boy, usually at age 13). In 1958, white supremacists had bombed that synagogue. Rothschild and his wife, Janice, grew close to Martin and Coretta Scott King in the years afterward. Janice lived long to see Ossoff take the oath with her late husband’s book This week, Georgia reelected 39 year old Jon Ossoff to the United States Senate. At his victory speech in Atlanta, he thanked his wife, Alisha, and their daughters, Eva and Lila. Then he talked about a conversation he expects to have when Eva is older. He imagined her asking what he did when people were losing their health coverage and voting rights were under threat. He told the crowd what he hoped he would be able to say to her. “The year you turned five, Georgia sent me back. Here is what we did with the time they gave us.” Isitoshe, After his win in Georgia, Jon Ossoff is now the prediction markets’ favorite to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. He has the gift of gab and, some women are saying he is easy on the eye. But if he runs, the first test will be South Carolina, where Black voters helped turn Joe Biden’s campaign around in 2020. Ossoff will have to make his own case to those voters and when he talks about John Lewis there, he will tell them about the man who wrote back to him at 16, sat down with him over lunch, and was still in his corner the night he lost his first race. May the day break
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Tu t'appelles Giovanni. 41 ans. Tu vis dans les Pouilles, dans le sud de l'Italie. Tu pratiques "l'Italianmaxxxing" depuis ta naissance. Tu ne sais pas ce que c'est. À 7h42, tu te réveilles parce que Monica, ta femme, a ouvert les volets. Tu sais que t'as bien dormi parce que t'as bien dormi. Malgré la bouteille de Primitivo Manduria que tu as bue hier. Tu bois un espresso au comptoir du café du village avec ton frère Marco. Vous avez une entreprise de carrelage depuis 2009. Votre business plan repose sur le fait de poser du carrelage et d'avoir WhatsApp. À midi, tu manges des braciole al sugo avec Marco et deux ouvriers. Tu reprends du pain pour finir la sauce et repars au chantier. Tu rentres chez toi vers 17h30, tu retrouves Monica et les enfants. Tu fais une sieste sur le canapé sous un poster d'Antonio Cassano que ta femme te demande d'enlever depuis 14 ans. Le vendredi, tu retrouves tes six amis d'enfance en terrasse. Vous commandez des doubles negroni, des olives et du pecorino. Vous jouez aux cartes. Vous parlez trop fort sur le foot, Meloni, et le nouveau carrelage dégueulasse de la mairie Cet été, ton cousin français, Baptiste, 34 ans, vient te rendre visite depuis Paris. Il porte une bague Oura connectée, un bracelet en nylon, et un débardeur Under Armour à 90 € qui évacue la transpiration. Il t'explique qu'il a consacré sept ans à optimiser sa longévité. Il est blanc comme un cul. Tu lui demandes s'il est malade. Il t'explique le cortisol, la HRV, les pics glycémiques et les effets de l'alcool sur le sommeil profond. Baptiste refuse ton pecorino parce qu'il a déjà atteint son quota de graisses saturées. Il refuse ensuite ton double negroni parce que ça perturbe sa récupération. Il sort une poudre verte multivitaminée à 79 € de son sac que tu recraches dans les plantes de ta grand-mère. Le soir, tu prépares des spaghetti alle vongole. Les enfants courent partout. Ton frère Marco arrive avec l'équipe de carrelage du village et une pizza Margherita faite avec les tomates de son cousin Francesco. Baptiste, cerné jusqu'au cul, t'explique qu'il ne mange pas après 19h30 pour sa prépa ultra-trail. Il poste une photo avec toi sur Instagram avec la légende "italianmaxxxing" Tu lui dis qu'il revient quand il veut. Il arrive à Orly et se demande pourquoi son bracelet Whoop lui indique un pic de stress après ses vacances.
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Andy Ellis retweeted
Ossoff won by 18 points in a Trump-won state. Maybe in 2028 we should nominate this guy instead of the loser of the last presidential election or the relatively unpopular governor of California? Call me crazy.
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Andy Ellis retweeted
This is the line for Democrats to take to win. Shut up about luxury beliefs, take the old Clinton 'safe, legal and rare' line on abortion, and go hard against corruption, while concentrating on economic populism and everyday material concerns.
Maybe no one in the field as good as Ossoff tying corruption to economic populism: "This corruption is why nothing works for ordinary people [...] It’s why your insurance company gets away with denying your cancer treatment after you paid your premiums for decades."
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Andy Ellis retweeted
There’s a reason James Talarico won Texas by nearly twice the margin that Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan. Unlike Abdul, he’s not a dick. He wasn’t on the campaign trail—even when Republicans lied and called him a gay, mentally ill, vegan freak—and he wasn’t in resounding victory. And to the extent he used to pay lip service to woke nonsense, he was willing to move away from that gobbledygook this time around. He’s good at politics. He doesn't resent this country. I think his future is much brighter than El-Sayed’s, despite coming from a much redder state.
CNN asks James Talarico if he will stand up to Abdul El-Sayed
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This is the feel today.
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– at Tonawanda, NY
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Democrats prepare inquiry into Musk over “Starshield” restrictions in Ukraine — CNN According to reports, the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations has already issued formal requests to private companies and representatives of the current administration, directing them to preserve documents that could serve as evidence in this matter. Elon Musk has also received such a request. In addition, similar inquiries have been sent to ports, banks, and companies that may be linked to Trump’s “diesel deal.”
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BREAKING: Jon Ossoff leads the 2028 Presidential election winner odds
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Andy Ellis retweeted
The fact that Talarico outperformed El Sayed by such an ungodly massive margin in a state that should be much harder to flip tells you everything you need to know about what direction the Democrats need to head in.
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Andy Ellis retweeted
Ossoff is the most stunningly obvious “he’s the guy” pick since Obama.
Its so obvious. He's the guy
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Credit where due: Talarico beat Musk and Putin.
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If I were an American, I would love to have Jon Ossoff as my president. And I think that’s what is going to happen. What a magnificent leader and an inspiring example he is.
Jon Ossoff sounding more and more like a Democrat nominee in waiting…
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Andy Ellis retweeted
Esta consecuencia de la victoria demócrata no la tenía prevista nadie: van a promover la eliminación del actual colegio electoral para elegir al presidente de los Estados Unidos. Es un tema un poco complicado de entender pero eso puede ser un golpe letal a Trump y/o a su eventual candidato republicano para el 2028. “Los demócratas ahora controlan suficientes estados para abolir efectivamente el Colegio Electoral a través del Pacto Interestatal del Voto Popular Nacional. Los republicanos NO tenían esto en sus cartones de bingo... Según la Constitución, los estados controlan sus votos electorales y tienen permitido decidir cómo se asignan durante las elecciones presidenciales. Actualmente, casi todos los estados otorgan sus votos a quien gane el estado. En la práctica, el sistema actual significa que un candidato puede ganar el voto popular nacional, pero perder la elección porque estados pequeños como Wyoming ejercen una influencia indebida en el resultado. Ese estado tiene 3 votos electorales con una población de solo 577,000 personas. California tiene 54 votos electorales y una población de 39.5 millones de personas. Así que un voto en Wyoming es esencialmente 3.8 veces más valioso que uno en California. Desde 1992, los demócratas han ganado el voto popular siete de nueve veces. Bajo el NPV, los estados que se unen acuerdan otorgar sus votos electorales a quien gane el voto popular nacional, no solo a quien gane su propio estado. Así que un estado podría volverse rojo en el mapa, pero si el demócrata gana el voto nacional, aún obtienen los votos de ese estado. Y viceversa, por supuesto. El mecanismo crucial es que el pacto no se activa hasta que los estados miembros tengan un poder combinado de al menos 270 votos electorales, el número necesario para ganar la Casa Blanca. Hasta ahora, 18 estados más D.C. se han unido, totalizando 222 votos electorales. Solo necesitamos 48 más. Ahora es la oportunidad de aprobar esta medida en todos los estados posibles. Los demócratas ganaron ambas cámaras de la legislatura en Wisconsin por primera vez en 18 años (10 votos electorales). Ganamos el Senado estatal de Pensilvania por primera vez desde 1993 (19 votos). Ahora tenemos una trifecta en Michigan (15 votos). Y ganamos la elección para gobernador en Nevada (6 votos). 10 + 19 + 15 + 6 = 50. 222 + 50 = 272. Y si mantenemos nuestra ventaja en el Senado de Arizona, ese número podría subir hasta 283, más que suficiente para activar el pacto. Además de eliminar un desequilibrio en nuestro sistema que favorece a los republicanos, este enfoque novedoso cambiaría fundamentalmente cómo los candidatos llevan a cabo sus campañas presidenciales. Actualmente, están incentivados a ignorar la mayor parte del país. Si vives en un estado “seguro”, rojo o azul, tu voto para Presidente está básicamente decidido antes de que lo emitas. Las campañas gastan su tiempo y dinero en un puñado de estados péndulo mientras el resto de nosotros observamos desde la barrera. Si se adopta el Pacto Interestatal del Voto Popular Nacional, tendrán razones para llegar a todos los estados porque buscan ganar la mayor extensión del país en su conjunto, no solo ciertos estados. Los estados tienen hasta el 20 de julio de 2028 para unirse al pacto a tiempo para la próxima elección presidencial. Podemos arreglar nuestra democracia. El momento es ahora.”
BREAKING: HOLY SMOKES! Democrats now control enough states to effectively abolish the Electoral College through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Republicans did NOT have this on their bingo cards... Under the Constitution, states control their electoral votes and are allowed to decide how they are allocated during presidential elections. Currently, almost every state gives its votes to whoever wins the state. In practice, the current system means that a candidate can win the national popular vote, but lose the election because small states like Wyoming exert undue influence on the outcome. That state has 3 electoral votes with a population of just 577,000 people. California has 54 electoral votes and a population of 39.5 million people. So a vote in Wyoming is essentially 3.8 times as valuable as one in California. Since 1992, Democrats have won the popular vote seven out of nine times. Under the NPV, states that join agree to give their electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote, not just their own state. So a state could go red on the map, but if the Democrat wins the national vote, they still get that state's votes. And vice versa of course. The crucial mechanism is that the compact doesn't trigger until the member states have a combined power of at least 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win the White House. So far, 18 states plus D.C. have joined, totaling 222 electoral votes. We only need 48 more. Now is the chance to pass this measure in every state possible. Democrats won both houses of the legislature in Wisconsin for the first time in 18 years (10 electoral votes). We won the Pennsylvania state Senate for the first time since 1993 (19 votes). We now have a trifecta in Michigan (15 votes). And we won the governor’s race in Nevada (6 votes). 10 + 19 + 15 + 6 = 50. 222 + 50 = 272. And if we hold our lead in the Arizona Senate, that number could climb as high as 283, more than enough to trigger the compact. In addition to removing an imbalance in our system that favors Republicans, this novel approach would fundamentally change how candidates run their presidential campaigns. Currently, they are incentivized to ignore most of the country. If you live in a “safe” state, red or blue, your vote for President is basically decided before you cast it. Campaigns spend their time and money in a handful of swing states while the rest of us watch from the sidelines. If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is adopted, they'll have reason to hit every state because they're aiming to win the largest swath of the country as a whole, not just certain states. States have until July 20, 2028 to join the compact in time for the next presidential election. We can fix our democracy. The time is now. Please ❤️ and share if you support this idea!
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Buttigieg polls at 0% with black people. Ossoff will have Rev. Warnock stumping with him and has been to a cookout or two. Kamala has the charisma of mayonnaise. Ossoff oozes it. AOC represents a bunch of literal Jacobins in a gerrymandered-ass district. Ossoff represents the entire state of *Georgia*, which was solid red not too long ago. Newsom is a walking advertisement for the old, corrupt establishment (and California dysfunction.) Ossoff is the youngest incumbent senator. He’s only held elected office for 6 years. Georgia has been run by republicans and he’s been a minority junior senator during half that time; there’s nothing to really tar him with. (He has the Obama clean slate of not having to have actually done anything!) I think he’s the best money as the dem nominee, but fwiw I’m a conservative so I don’t really know dem politics outside of the libs in my family.
Strap in for President Ossoff. If it’s actually a redux of 2006 and politics is now on a “fashion retro cycle” 20 years later, that means we’re two years away from Jewish Obama.
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this was one of the greatest answers to a press question in american history
Dude knows how to speak. Like it’s so good
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À propos de l’origine des Celtes. Une étude publiée dans Nature croise pour la première fois, génomique ancienne, archéologie et linguistique pour tenter de retracer la diffusion des langues celtiques en Europe, en s’appuyant sur l’analyse de 4 587 génomes anciens. Les résultats semblent privilégier l’hypothèse d’une expansion depuis l’Europe centrale et orientale vers l’ouest, entre 1200 et 800 av. J.-C., en lien avec les mouvements de populations associés aux cultures des champs d’urnes, du Hallstatt et de La Tène. nature.com/articles/s41586-0…
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🚨 BREAKING: Democrats now have the power to effectively abolish the Electoral College.
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BREAKING: HOLY SMOKES! Democrats now control enough states to effectively abolish the Electoral College through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. Republicans did NOT have this on their bingo cards... Under the Constitution, states control their electoral votes and are allowed to decide how they are allocated during presidential elections. Currently, almost every state gives its votes to whoever wins the state. In practice, the current system means that a candidate can win the national popular vote, but lose the election because small states like Wyoming exert undue influence on the outcome. That state has 3 electoral votes with a population of just 577,000 people. California has 54 electoral votes and a population of 39.5 million people. So a vote in Wyoming is essentially 3.8 times as valuable as one in California. Since 1992, Democrats have won the popular vote seven out of nine times. Under the NPV, states that join agree to give their electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote, not just their own state. So a state could go red on the map, but if the Democrat wins the national vote, they still get that state's votes. And vice versa of course. The crucial mechanism is that the compact doesn't trigger until the member states have a combined power of at least 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win the White House. So far, 18 states plus D.C. have joined, totaling 222 electoral votes. We only need 48 more. Now is the chance to pass this measure in every state possible. Democrats won both houses of the legislature in Wisconsin for the first time in 18 years (10 electoral votes). We won the Pennsylvania state Senate for the first time since 1993 (19 votes). We now have a trifecta in Michigan (15 votes). And we won the governor’s race in Nevada (6 votes). 10 + 19 + 15 + 6 = 50. 222 + 50 = 272. And if we hold our lead in the Arizona Senate, that number could climb as high as 283, more than enough to trigger the compact. In addition to removing an imbalance in our system that favors Republicans, this novel approach would fundamentally change how candidates run their presidential campaigns. Currently, they are incentivized to ignore most of the country. If you live in a “safe” state, red or blue, your vote for President is basically decided before you cast it. Campaigns spend their time and money in a handful of swing states while the rest of us watch from the sidelines. If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is adopted, they'll have reason to hit every state because they're aiming to win the largest swath of the country as a whole, not just certain states. States have until July 20, 2028 to join the compact in time for the next presidential election. We can fix our democracy. The time is now. Please ❤️ and share if you support this idea!
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