Clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right. Here I am.
Australia
Joined December 2023
- Tweets9.2K
- Following831
- Followers1.5K
- Likes2.6K
The single most important outcome at the Victorian election is not who you put last on your ballot.
It is that the ALP is forced into third place on the total seat count once all votes are counted.
This requires deliberate preference and primary-vote choices that produce “split outcomes” between the Liberals/LNP and One Nation.
The goal is a clear hierarchy in which One Nation finishes second, ahead of Labor.
That structure matters far more than a conventional LNP majority with Labor as the main opposition.
Look at the practical difference.
In seats where the Greens are competitive against Labor (Northcote, Pascoe Vale, Preston, Footscray and similar inner-urban contests), the priority is letting the Greens beat the ALP.
The Greens already hold Richmond, Melbourne and Brunswick with no realistic threat from the LNP or One Nation; those three seats can be left alone.
Giving Labor seats to the Greens reduces the ALP’s overall total without handing the left any new governing power.
Across the rest of the state the aim is to divide seats between the LNP and One Nation so that One Nation ends ahead of Labor.
3 simplified seat scenarios illustrate why this matters:
1. LNP 50, One Nation 10, ALP 25, Greens 3
2. LNP 40, One Nation 14, ALP 30, Greens 4
3. LNP 33, One Nation 23, ALP 22, Greens 10
Many LNP supporters instinctively prefer the first scenario
That preference is a mistake.
It recreates the Campbell Newman situation in Queensland: a large LNP majority immediately under siege from a still-powerful Labor opposition backed by the unions.
The result was Newman’s rapid destruction and another decade of Labor government that most Queenslanders later regretted.
Victoria already carries deeper structural regrets.
An LNP government with One Nation as the official opposition is vastly more workable than one with Labor in that role.
One Nation will not block the LNP’s agenda on the same ideological and industrial grounds that Labor does.
The LNP can deliver far more of its program, and the government will be far more stable.
Therefore, every seat taken from the ALP is the primary objective.
Every seat that moves from the LNP column to One Nation is the secondary objective.
In any seat that is a genuine toss-up between the LNP and One Nation, Liberal-inclined voters serve their own longer-term interests better by giving their primary vote to One Nation.
That single shift helps lock in the seat hierarchy that actually matters: One Nation second, ALP third.
If the objective is durable change rather than a short-lived majority that Labor can quickly reverse, this is the strategic path.
🤖 Made with AI
Here is what happens if the ALP come 3rd in MLA seat count.
1. They lose the title of 'opposition'. This is likely the biggest hit. They will no longer even receive this description in the media
2. They lose priority in question time in parliament. This is also huge. Their ability to run cheap 'gotchas' gets buried amongst parliamentary procedure.
3. Their leader takes a $100-125k pay cut. Most Victorians would think this appropriate
4. They lose shadow ministry status so numerous ALP MP's would now face substantial pay cuts - as they would not even constitute 'opposition minister for'
5. They face diminished staffing, office and research resources. This is actually quite impactful. The Opposition gets a staffing office of some 17 staff. The 'third party' does not receive this.
After the absolute torture most Victorians have endured the last decade or more, this is the least punishment they should dole out.
Don't just vote ALP last.
Get them down to third.
It is crucial for the future rebuild of Victoria
🤖 Made with AI
Here's an interesting question or two.
1. Allowing back office government workers to work from home inarguably saves them money
2. Allowing back office government workers to work from home should - per their assertions - have lead to substantial productivity gains.
here's the rationale.
I for example have a $30pd parking fee, $20 in tolls, and circa $30 in fuel. That's $80pd, before considering reduced vehicle maintenance and insurance costs.
Add to that coffee is cheaper at home, etc etc.
I am essentially $100 pd, $500 pw, $25K pa better off WFH.
So can someone please explain why public servants have been given *above CPI* pay rises (often multiples of) - when in all seriousness they should have been assigned pay cuts or pay freezes?
I repeat - the savings are substantial, and employers should have shared some of this benefit.
So now to the productivity issue. They'll tell you they are so much more efficient at home..... and yet .... remarkably, public service headcount has blown own, by multiples of the underlying service demand.
Again, here's the rationale - it takes me 90 minutes door to door each way. Times that by 10, and I save *15 hours* a week by working from home.
So I should be **inordinately** more productive right?
Wrong? I am forced to wait and wait, either for executive level decisions, or operational level task completion.
Now allow me to explain in one paragraph what has happened to the Australian economy:
By allowing work from home, public servants have significantly more disposable income, which they spend on e-commerce, thereby boosting inflation. But there has been no commensurate increase in productivity - moreover, this has actually gone backwards, requiring EVEN MORE public servants, at the higher salaries, just to get the work done.
There is no better immediate solution this country can implement other than 'all public servants back to the office'
There is something particularly sick with Martina Navratilova.
An agitated lesbian, she seems comfortable in suggesting 'mostly men' are to be blame for the gender dystopia we find ourselves in.
Overwhelmingly, the data shiws us that it is white western women who are the 'critical mass' in support of radical gender theory.
To explain Imane Khelif. This person is 'I' on the LGBTIQ+ rainbow.
I is a legitimate physical anomaly. We should not harangue these people.
However, unfortunately, Imane's condition still points to him having male biological basis. Indisputable.
So it is inappropriate he participate in female sports.
The Policy Guy retweeted
If any elected leader opposes data centers or the reindustrialization of America, just say you support them in Chinese. Make every reply below their posts in Chinese.
They will eventually go insane.
The Policy Guy retweeted
@JimThom90458694 🚨 STOLEN ARMY MILITARY MEDALS 🚨 Last Thursday, 29 October, Daisy Hill was broken into during daylight hours and among the items stolen were Army medals. Some of the medals are engraved with the name M. C. Fowle. Contact QLD Police.
Talking to some peeps today about productivity and the public sector (mutually exclusive concepts?)
Turns out quite a few of us know people working multiple jobs simultaneously
We know those running desktop services against their MoE ('green dotting')
So why not demand public servants get the hell back to the office?
If we're going to talk about helping struggling small businesses - I imagine the trainside vendors, CBD bars and restaurants and coffee shops, etc - they might all appreciate the business.
There is ZERO mystery why we have a productivity crisis in Australia - a bloated public service accountable for zero and responsible for little more than that.
Back to the damned office
@Adam_Creighton
@matt_barrie
@Matt_Camenzuli
@DHughesy
@LiberalAus
@LiberalVictoria
@OneNationAus
@WarrenPHON_VIC
@DrCameronMurray
@cmkusher
Does the $16M include a retrospective component (i.e "thanks for the hatchet job on BRS!" - or is this forward funding only?
Reasons for curtailing migration #871.1b.2x
When a significant portion of your resident population was born overseas..
Yet still takes their marching orders from a foreign government
You have introduced an *extremely precarious* situation into your domestic security
But if you're Albanese - the silver medalled Manchurian candidate - you're set!
There are some deeply necessary and painfully obvious lessons to be learned here. Much of this is a Pan-Pacific case study in the making:
Young people are not seeing a bright future - and respond to the allure of 'free'.
Many if not most are afforded heavily subsidised education (especially in Australia) then resent the fact there is a slight bill to pay. Amplified by limited work prospects as a Bachelor of Gender Trauma in pre-colonial Guyana helps nobody.
We *must* divert them from pointless university courses (which are largely redundant at this moment in history) and offer them tax incentives and other work incentives WHILST they can still earn an income.
Into the trades they must go
You can (and should) dispense with the LGBTIQ+ silliness (even blue states universally supported this)
You canNOT go harder on abortion. Doesn't matter your 'feels' on the matter - the only state to fail a transgender bill tried the omnibus wrapped in with abortion. It failed. Heed the lesson.
Republicans did absolutely abysmally amongst voters aged 18 to 29.
This is a fascinating breakdown by demographic.
Source:
reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful…
Whilst the needless and savage taking of an innocent human life is deeply saddening, Matt is spot on.
With each 'sad incident' there's an inconvenient truth our governments would like to keep from us.
A Hungrypanda driver?
Can someone at Home Affairs pull the file please?
Did the deceased apply on the skills shortage list under 'dog grooming'?
Who approved the application?
Should each of their approvals now be examined?
This is magnificent delusion!
As i'll remind @aaronsmith
But i'll add @BrentHodgson into the mix
The efficacy of your interactions is painfully evident in state polling numbers. I now can't discern whether the ALP or Anthrax is more popular in Stockholm-en-Yarra
You'll be gaslighting whilst your ship sinks.
@TerryCorby57986 - I am blissfully unaware of the 'hughesy takedown' you refer to. But let me bring to your attention that which you seem ignorant of... Hughesy is piloting the LNP into a commanding position. I'm decidedly unVictorian I agree - I judge by outcomes.
The fact that you interpret this as having his ar*e handed to him is Chalmers-esque revisionism
You're going to have a pretty shit next month and decade after that I reckon
In defence of the Vic ALP, they've made some investments which weren't absolute dumpster fires.
At the low end, we have the cancellation of the Daniel Andrews statue.
OK, sure, @BenCarrollMP still agreed to pay 'friends of the ALP' Meridien Sculpture their $136K
(for not even doing any work mind you, what a ripper!)
But we also have the terminated contract for the Commonwealth Games, for which the ALP wrote off more than half a billion of Vic Taxpayers dollars.
Then Glasgow turned around and reported a $400M benefit from the investment
#getVicALPthird
🤖 Made with AI
The gall of Monique to lecture anyone on costs of living.
Have AI scan her posts. Overwhelmingly she is bemoaning 'critical shortages' and more government spend.
She's tone deaf and incompetent.
Replacing her with an LNP candidate would not be much better.
