CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance
Joined December 2018
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Quinn Thompson retweeted
The Brent–WTI spread was $2–4 before the war. Now the US gets a $13–14 per barrel discount. @qthomp on why markets may be front-running a crude export ban.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Crypto's bottom won't be a V. @qthomp on why, with no liquidity, a real bottom can take many, many months.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
.@qthomp: "The only way out is through." Either much higher prices via escalation, or prices high enough to destroy demand.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Front-month Brent: $112–113. March 2027: $101. @qthomp on the $12–13 roll yield he earns by being long oil futures.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Milwaukee Brewers back to the World Series for the first time since 1982 🧀🧀🧀🍺🍺🍺🍻🍻🍻 #OnWisconsin
Quinn Thompson retweeted
If you missed this week's roundup with @fejau_inc and @qthomp, here it is in under 4 minutes.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
More #ENERGY #EQUITIES are making it to the upcoming report.
I don't want to be a chart book economist. So far charts are leading me to signals in the sector.
But who else is reading "We will not hit Iran" as "We will hit Iran"... Which politicians words can be taken at face value?
Stay tuned for the Global Equity Markets report >> blog.techcharts.net
Quinn Thompson retweeted
The margin on refining crude into jet fuel is now bigger than the average cost of a barrel in ~20 of the last 24 years. @qthomp on the floor under oil.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
In past oil breakouts, hundreds of millions of SPR barrels capped prices. @qthomp: "That is gone."
Quinn Thompson retweeted
While Brent crude call skew (premium on calls over puts) is beginning to rise again, it's basically nothing compared to March and even still well below the levels we realized during the July rally.
A proxy for options-expressed geopol risk premium.
(Brent 2M 25d risk reversal)
Quinn Thompson retweeted
NEW ROUNDUP
We Cover:
🔸 Oil–bond correlation flips: growth scare?
🔸 Brent's backwardation & roll-yield trade
🔸 Record Brent–WTI spread + export-ban risk
🔸 Drained SPR: no buffer left
🔸 Crypto's bottom signal vs. no liquidity
@fejau_inc @qthomp
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two
01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%
02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up
05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case
09:45 Reading The Oil Curve
12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs
16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries
20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through
23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions
29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan
36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices
39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?
44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?
54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto
Quinn Thompson retweeted
I am surprised by the lack of questioning around the "administration can and will support markets through midterms" narrative. That made a lot more sense to me over the last bunch of months, but not on the doorstep of the event.
What if the crisis comes in October while everyone is thinking it can't possibly happen until after.
"We have to come together as a nation and weather the burden of higher oil prices to make sure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon."
If you hear something along these lines in the coming weeks, don't be surprised. The administration has lost control of oil supply/demand and soon to be prices. I wouldn't be surprised if they are planning re-escalation of the war as we speak as an excuse for what will be oil prices moving higher regardless.
Don't forget that Israel has elections (which are meaningful for Netanyahu) on October 27th, one week before the US midterms (which are obviously high stakes for Trump).
Quinn Thompson retweeted
The consensus trade has been that markets stay supported into midterms. I think the shot clock on that view is running out. After November 3rd, Trump begins the last two years of his lame-duck term with a divided congress. While split congresses are normally good for markets, I wonder if that will be the case when it follows the most market-oriented/friendly administration ever.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Feed the ducks when they’re quacking 🦆
Quinn Thompson retweeted
While it hasn't been popular to use the C word (crisis), and particularly warn of it coming sooner than consensus is expecting, the signs keep adding up on an almost daily basis that it is already here.
I am surprised by the lack of questioning around the "administration can and will support markets through midterms" narrative. That made a lot more sense to me over the last bunch of months, but not on the doorstep of the event.
What if the crisis comes in October while everyone is thinking it can't possibly happen until after.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Don't be complacent with respect to oil here...
I am surprised by the lack of questioning around the "administration can and will support markets through midterms" narrative. That made a lot more sense to me over the last bunch of months, but not on the doorstep of the event.
What if the crisis comes in October while everyone is thinking it can't possibly happen until after.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
~2 weeks until elections in both the US and Israel, where the incumbents in both 1) are severely behind in polls and 2) believe in a "power through strength" approach to geopolitics.
Two weeks ago with @VincentDeluard and @fejau_inc discussing false flags and an October surprise…
Quinn Thompson retweeted
@grok have the embassies been evacuated other times this year?
BREAKING: US orders full evacuation of US embassy staff and their families in Saudi Arabia immediately, with families of embassy staff in the UAE, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain also ordered out, per a diplomatic source to AFP.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The US State Department says this report is inaccurate and that it has issued an ordered departure for non-emergency US government employees and their families in Saudi Arabia only. x.com/statedeptspox/…
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Hot CPI. Hot PPI. And the 10-year is still 17bp below its high.
@qthomp and @fejau_inc on why bonds aren't buying the inflation scare.
