Simon The Trader

While downside risks remain, I'm favouring longs over shorts here. Positioning is part cleared and sentiment is washed out enough to favour scaling in.

Having a great holiday with my son in the US.

Inflation shock vs growth scare. Judging by the data, the latter currently seems more likely. Either is bad for stocks, but only the latter is good for bonds. Cash is the best hedge against either scenario.

GM.

The window of weakness for the stock market is closing. My top holdings in $MU $BE and $KORU are all starting to move. My portfolio “TurtleCapital” has a 5YR return of +295% and is available to copy at @eToro

So Broadcom totally blew out earnings, and yet the stock got dumped. This isn’t the first AI stock to blow out earnings this season, only to dump after. At this point, you just have to laugh. I’d hate to be sidelined for what is coming. $AVGO

• Oil prices spiking • Iran war risk escalating • Inflation pressures rising • Fed hikes getting priced in • Yields breaking out • Seasonal weakness beginning Can the wall of worry get any taller? And yet, $QQQ is holding green today. Have we reached peak worry?

Still short bitcoin:native and ethereum:native , and holding for lower targets.

This is semiconductors vs software ($SOXX / $IGV ). The June peak in semis coincides with the peak in the Nasdaq. For the markets to truly break out, semis need to start leading again. Until this pair reverses, expect the consolidation to continue.

Bitcoin is running into major resistance at 81k. Confluence at this level: • 50-week moving average • Prior weekly swing low • Previous underside of bear channel • Daily TD Sequential 9 sell setup If bulls can flip this zone, the question of whether the bear is over is a serious one. If bears reject us here, despite all the hype, the bear market likely continues. bitcoin:native

I was expecting Bitcoin to tag 81k, which is the 50 week MA. I have added to my shorts, as planned.

This is from Gemini, but I’m sure other models will give similar answers. And yes, add the memory demand from robots on top.

GM.

Smashing the tech bears. 🐻🥊

Stocks Rally On Weak Jobs Data. Are Fed Rate Hikes Now Cancelled?

Nice breakout and retest on the Nasdaq today of the declining trendline. Let’s see if we can close above the upper rising trendline. This would set us up for a push above 30k soon, and a retest of the purple line. $NQ $NDX