Simon The Trader

This won’t age well. One is shaping the future of humanity, the other you literally can’t even store anymore without the risk of it getting hacked.

Congrats on your bearish outlook on semis and memory lately, but bear sentiment is hitting extremes here. I think the majority of the move lower is done and whilst we can still go lower (especially short term), longer term the buy backs will be a catalyst for higher prices, especially if earnings continue to beat. The AI buildout will extend over many years. Expectations will overextend (like earlier this year) and then cool off (as is happening now) to the point that the market can push higher again once those expectations have reset.

Tech valuations are at multi-year lows despite massive earnings growth. If there is no bubble, how can one burst?

Smashed earnings. Let’s go.

So the QQQ just hit a 10% correction and everyone is getting super bearish, going to cash, shorting, hedging, adding puts. I was shorting/bearish 2 weeks ago. Now (unless we get a big bounce and credit stays stretched) it is not the time to be shorting, when everyone is screaming “it’s a bubble, sell it all!”. This is how people get ruined and sell the low. I’m not saying the lows for this correction are in, but no one knows. Right now this is a 10% drop. Nothing is signalling that this is a crisis at this point. Comparisons to late 2018 are noteworthy but credit was a lot worse then and the Fed hiked into weakness, we don’t yet have the same setup (yet!). This is a growth scare, but it is a far milder one at this point according to the macro data. One solid earnings report or Fed speaker shifting tone and this market can reverse quicker than you can close those shorts and reposition. I expect the worst of this sell-off is behind us, yet I’m still prepared for lower, until we get confirmation. Bottoms are always ugly, never clean, and it never looks like a bottom until after it’s happened. One thing is for sure, prices today are the best value in months, some in years. Unless we are heading into a recession, no one ever went broke buying a 10% dip in the index in a bull market.

We appreciate your service in moments like this. I love perma bears, their doom posting helps us get outsized discounts on the way down, and then their shorts become rocket fuel on the way up. A broken clock is correct twice a day. Enjoy your 5 minutes in the sun.

Bottoms are always ugly, right now QQQ is in free fall, whilst we can go lower I have closed my shorts here and expect a bounce soon. QQQ 700 FOMC low has been taken. At this point the risk of upside is greater than continued downside IMO.

The stock market is front running you.

While downside risks remain, I'm favouring longs over shorts here. Positioning is part cleared and sentiment is washed out enough to favour scaling in.

I agree with you on this. Price action is the purest measure we have, the odds are against you if getting bearish at ATHs and more often that not traders that are will get burned.

There are better opportunities currently without the credit risk of the neoclouds, but it’s getting to interesting levels and I think we are close to peak fear.

Fundamentally it’s a buy, but technically it can fall a little more and test/sweep July lows IMO.

Most crypto cultists will deny this until it actually happens and lose everything.

Dumbest comment I read all week.

That’s what he said.

I’m saying 700 might happen before a bounce, which is the FOMC low. Of course if that fails lower targets are in-play.

I’m not in this camp yet, but sub 700 opens the door to these levels for sure. If we are going lower I’d prefer they nuke it sooner.

Thanks Tim!

Yep. A lot of event risk over the next 2 weeks, makes sense we find a low.

Having a great holiday with my son in the US.