Pro trader and investor. Sharing daily market insights, stock picks, and cycle analysis. Follow for actionable alpha in stock and crypto markets.
Lisbon, Portugal
Joined November 2020
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Simon The Trader retweeted
Most of the solid traders and investors I know who have proven they can make money for themselves still think we are in a bear….
Whilst the majority who think we are in a bull are your typical moon boys & hype merchants.
Let’s see who has the last laugh 🫢
Those certain of the bottom being in are saying so out of pure desperation for it to be true.
They never sold, they are massively down.
They are trying to now justify their poor decision making by putting down far better traders than they are.
They hate us out of jealousy or envy, or perhaps they just have no emotional control, which is why they can’t stop losing money in the markets.
Usually the new bull starts when these people have flipped into skeptics, not with them all screaming “bull run”.
I still am of the view that we are in a bear market.
Simon The Trader retweeted
There are two problems rn for crypto and, specifically, bitcoin bulls:
1) marginal liquidity would rather speculate in prediction markets and equity markets
2) marginal energy to mine BTC is worth 10-20x if reallocated to serving AI tokens
These changes feel structural but I could be wrong…
Simon The Trader retweeted
Simon The Trader retweeted
Saylor knows he's the only bid in the book, so he cannot stop buying or bitcoin will roll over and die, taking him with it
But the market has sniffed out his weakness (see: STRC discount), i doubt he can raise long dated debt at rates which allow him to favorably cover his current obligations
So if he can't sell BTC & he can't raise more debt, I guess he is doing the only thing he can do here: sell more MSTR to raise cash & keep bids in the bitcoin orderbook. if bitcoin can get back above his average cost ~$75k, he should have more options.
except this is disastrous for the common shareholders. they get doubly diluted wrt corporate ownership and bitcoin per share. i really struggle to believe this will be allowed to go on forever but it's certainly gone on for longer than i imagined so who knows
^ The other problem with kicking-the-can down the road is that i really see no reason for Bitcoin to catch a bid until the saylor issue is meaningfully resolved:
* Warsh just indicated rates might even go a step higher... do you want saylor's ponzi or good government yield?
* Anthropic is literally selling cyber weapons through an API, do you think the AI trade is over? do you think it's gonna stop absorbing all public & private liquidity?
* If you're worried about the end of the world and the infinite minting of fiat, just buy Nvidia and Gold, that barbell has done quite well.
The real solution is to sell enough BTC or MSTR to retire essentially all the debt & preferreds. This at least removes the overhang of saylor selling from the market and opens the possibility of positive price action looking forward. It would be the death of strategy for sure, the only path forward would be converting to some type of trust like GBTC, but it would be an honorable death. I figure there's two reasons this isn't happening:
1. Hubris, saylor wouldn't be the first guy to lever up too much on wall street & to ride it to the bitter ugly end. hell it wouldn't even be his first rodeo
2. There's no buyers. He would sell all that Bitcoin if there were buyers at this level, but it turns out the bid is much much lower than we really think and he just can't stomach it
Simon The Trader retweeted
The thing is, I don't agree on 99%. Not even close.
You don't see Bitcoin as money. You called people who advocate for self-custody 'crypto anarchists'. You see Bitcoin as a finished project.
But what's worse is that you view retail as a cow to be milked. First you sold them $MSTR, before you diluted the hell out of the stock.
You sold them $STRC and told them it was a as stable as a money market fund. Risk free. Now they are 15% below par.
And the worst thing is that you start sighing, moaning and groaning when somebody has the audacity to question you on that.
I honestly think that this industry would be better off without you.
Simon The Trader retweeted
The Michael Saylor Broken Promise Tracker 🧵
1/ "Never dilute if it decreases Bitcoin per share."
Broken: Announced today the issuance of 1.4M new common shares to bolster cash reserves and manage STRC stress, mathematically decreasing BPS for common holders.
2/ "Never dilute below 1.22x EV mNAV."
Broken: Floor officially breached today. 1.4M shares were issued at a compressed premium simply to hoard fiat cash rather than accreting Bitcoin.
3/ STRC will act as a stable "money market fund" (3% volatility).
Broken: The preferred stock is now trading like a volatile high-beta asset. 30-day historical volatility hit 11% and the principal plunged to $90.40, breaking its $100 par value.
4/ "There is no second best crypto asset."
Broken: Now heavily promoting DeFi yield protocols and stablecoins (like Apyx and Saturn), as these alternative assets have quietly become STRC's largest holders to absorb the supply.
5/ "We will never sell."
Broken: In May 2026, Strategy Inc. officially sold 32 BTC, permanently shattering the perpetual hold narrative.
6/ The $42B plan will be deployed methodically "over 3 years."
Broken: Burned through the vast majority of the allocation in months, eventually halting purchases entirely due to dividend coverage stress.
7/ "Never dilute below 1.0x basic mNAV."
Broken: Floor entirely abandoned as market premiums collapsed.
8/ "Never dilute below 2.5x basic mNAV."
Broken: This initial floor was quietly abandoned the moment premiums began compressing.
9/ "Zero counterparty risk."
Broken: While technically equity, the massive preferred stack introduces severe systemic risk. The 11.5% yield created a massive annual cash obligation, acting as a structural margin call that is forcing the liquidation of treasury BTC.
10/ "Chasing yield is how you lose your Bitcoin."
Broken: Created STRC to chase yield and is now seemingly in a position where they will need to start selling (losing) their Bitcoin.
11/ Maintain accurate, lawful corporate accounting.
Broken: Caught cooking financial books in 2000, triggering an SEC settlement. The stock wiped out 90% of its value in a single month, ultimately crashing 99.4% from its peak.
Simon The Trader retweeted
Most companies aren’t run by a bunch of degenerate gamblers.
You continue to gamble and then gamble some more.
After failing to get any big companies to follow your “playbook”, STRC is a desperate effort to reverse the bear market and prevent BTC and therefore MSTR from collapsing. It won’t work.
Your downfall will be a great case study as to why egomaniacs make awful traders, and how such irresponsible actions in the financial markets never go unpunished.
Simon The Trader retweeted
I disagree with Peter on a lot including his assessment of Bitcoin, but on STRC he is completely correct.
Saylor is a liability to Bitcoin, he is a big reason for the recent weakness, at this point a collapse of MSTR and subsequently BTC (as collateral damage) is unavoidable.
No longer an if, but when.
Simon The Trader retweeted
Simon The Trader retweeted
1/ I’ve spent most of the last few weeks since the Google, Caltech papers to think about tradable implications around quantum computing and crypto
specifically what happens to the market around q-day
Simon The Trader retweeted
Good time to get some #HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu if you have been sidelined.
My target for the cycle remains $20.
An 80x from here. 🟦🟨🟥
#RETAIN
Simon The Trader retweeted
🔮 BULL @bullmarketeth is about to SHOCK everyone! 🚀 The #1 memecoin that’s poised for MASSIVE growth. 💥
📈 It makes TOTAL sense to buy $BULL during a bull market. Why wait when you can ride the wave to the moon? 🌕
#BullMarketETH #Memecoin #Crypto #BuyTheDip #BullishAF
