truth seeker, employee turned entrepreneur turned builder, investor, batman🦇
Universe
Joined August 2021
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There are two ways to make assymetric wealth.
Become an entrepreneur and use leverage - technology/ labor/ capital.
Become an investor and predict and live in the future.
Prediction (30 Oct 2026) - Most likely outcome of the AI trade and to be reviewed around Oct 2028.
Hyperscalers: the clearest winners. Cloud margins stay above 35%. Debt is easily serviced.
Frontier labs: two or three reach very large scale. Their IPOs are among the largest ever. Labs that fall a generation behind are acquired or fade.
Neoclouds: survive and grow but consolidate; capacity tied to leading labs is valuable, capacity tied to laggards is re-let at lower prices.
Chips: Nvidia's share erodes towards custom silicon, but the pool grows fast. Memory, networking and optics have a multi-year up-cycle.
Power and data centers: the binding constraint, and extremely valuable.
Applications: AI-native vertical apps take share from incumbent SaaS; outcome-based pricing replaces seats.
Enterprises: decisive adopters widen the gap against laggards.
Counter intuitive: digital ad rates will sky rocket on certain consumer apps that has high human engagement since all other apps will be for agents. Meta, you tube, X.. and likes will gain.
Classic mistake of comparing intelligence to standard utilities like money, electricity, internet, saas, commodity, transport etc.
Intelligence by it's very nature is competing with human intellect and labor. The demand for it is not just current TAM of human efforts but exponentially higher than that. In quantity, quality, and more importantly urgency.
The labs, hyperscalers, neo clouds, chip makers have this figured and hence betting the house on it.
Sandy retweeted
So many times analysts keep getting $GOOG wrong! It's a no brainer google will be one of the very few last men standing in the AI race in years to come along with Nvidia, Amazon, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and in the $10T club.
Spotting winners and making money is sometimes super easy if you have right combination of interdisciplinary skills and knowledge.
Prediction (14 Aug 2024): $GOOG will double from current level in less than 2 years coz of AI tailwind.
Sandy retweeted
Throughout my 20 something years in investing, SpaceX $SPCX is the largest arbitrage I’ve ever encountered. It’s not a misunderstanding in the usual sense — it’s a cognitive error at market scale, and that error is the edge for anyone willing to look.
Management has published guidance and data in the open; the spoon is right there in front of everyone. Yet large parts of the market still can’t see it, or simply refuse to, because the numbers are genuinely that extreme. I don’t know whether this window stays open for one year, two, or ten. But I suspect that whenever it closes, looking back will be one of the more interesting exercises in modern market history.
All the AI bubble talk is a distraction. Except for the private AI labs and startups whose valuation is extreme (but inline with their growth), the valuation of other AI supply chain companies across all layers of AI stack (energy, chips, infra, models, and applications) is decent and in many cases undervalued. AI bubble will happen at some point for sure, and then it will be glorious. You ain't seen anything yet! xitter.gq/techprimitives/status/…
At some point all the AI / AGI frontier companies like Nvidia, Google, TSMC, Tesla, Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX will start trading at insanely high PE (>100). It will happen once people and investors understand this and realize these companies will be primary beneficiaries and can grow at over 100% over next few years 👇
Anthropic S1 reviewed and summarised by Claude. 1/3
Anthropic has filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC related to its proposed IPO.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/s1-sec
Legal disclaimer: A registration statement relating to these securities has been filed with the SEC but has not yet become effective. These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. This post does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy these securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.
Sandy retweeted
Deep dive into AI with Sandeep Khomne, a full time AI investor. Do watch!
youtu.be/S25luQaxS7A?si=U2ur…
AI agent use case -
Ask it to create a banger party DJ playlist with snippets n transition and play.
🥳 🎵
Sandy retweeted
Prediction: @elonmusk has three aces up his sleeve -
~ Tesla + Vision AI = worlds best robotic firm
~ Twitter + GenAI = worlds best media firm
~ SpaceX + Starlink = worlds best logistic and global coverage firm
Q is if it is accidental or deliberate or first principal thinking!
Pro tip and life's greatest superpower -
Treat everything as noise and endeavour to find the signals that matter the most.
Sandy retweeted
Have been thinking about this argument for quite some time. I think you can’t compare big tech to legacy companies where startups have distinctive advantage (namely software). By the very nature of software (especially AI) it’s very easy for big tech to kill startups overnight.