I tweet about energy, through the lenses of policy, finance, and geopolitics. The newsletter linked below is where I share longer-form content. 👇
Washington, DC
Joined May 2021
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1/n After a series of client meetings these past weeks, a recurring theme has emerged on the US energy “transition.”
Investors seem overly focused on variable costs for new energy tech right now. Not enough attention is being paid to capex, cost of capital, and build time.
🧵
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the Plug retweeted
The CA agencies provided no analysis in support of their bold claims, because no actual study would back them up.
So this is essentially just a set of states using 'trust me bro' as justification for warping a half-trillion dollar federal program in their favor.
the Plug retweeted
Anyone else remember how we were supposed to have a supply-driven super cycle and then OPEC+ cut production by 5 MMbpd and we traded sideways for a year?
the Plug retweeted
I’ll take the other side of this bet.
Hydrogen is projected to account for 16% of road transport, potentially competing with battery-powered electric vehicles.
oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G…
the Plug retweeted
PMPP looking more likely with every passing day.
Federal Polling:
CPC: 43% (+9)
LPC: 24% (-9)
NDP: 18% (-)
Abacus Data / February 7, 2024 / n=2398 / Online
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Check out federal details on @338Canada at: 338canada.com
the Plug retweeted
🛢️ WHAT'S COMMODITY CONTEXT? 🛢️
Many new subscribers and it had been *ages* since I last updated the About page.
Here's a [re]introduction of myself and what you can expect from my oil market research at Commodity Context
Read more: commoditycontext.com/about
the Plug retweeted
Energy nerds, you don’t get the night off. There’s a whole energy title in the Immigration/Security bill. (Pages 24-29 in the bill text). Spoiler alert: nuclear.
the Plug retweeted
Nigeria's currency has lost 2/3rds of its value relative to USD over the past year.
Anyone holding domestic cash/deposits had their savings greatly devalued, and everyone who is paid in the local currency who can't negotiate a tripling of their income has less purchasing power.
There are 160+ currencies in the world, with each one being a centralized ledger. Many of them lose value rapidly, with this being the most recent example, affecting 200+ million people.
Since the currencies are all localized monopolies, people historically had little choice other than to denominate contracts and savings in them, and keep getting rug-pulled.
The wealthy often have more avenues to get foreign bank/brokerage accounts to hold value elsewhere, while the less wealthy often have fewer ways to get out of the repeated rug-pulling with whatever modest savings they have.
Technologies like bitcoin for the long term and stablecoins for the intermediate term give me people more options. They take what was once mostly accessible to the wealthy (more solid value outside of the control of the local centralized rug-pulling ledger), reduce the overhead of it, and make it more available to everyone.
the Plug retweeted
Think you’re maybe underestimating the political dynamic of a company 75% owned by the govt… do you think it would have been politically palatable to target below their subsoil use agreement levels given they are the entire lowest quartile of the cost curve and #uranium prices are at 15 year highs? The company has every incentive to announce targets in line with their government production agreements… hitting them would obviously be dependent on market dynamics (which, as we are seeing, are quite difficult at the moment). Guide to best case and if you miss, prices rise dramatically. You deliver into largely market related contracts and you’ll make record margins. It’s a huge win for $KAP assuming they haven’t gotten too short in the contract book - just maybeeee Twitter is fighting ghosts on this one and everything they are doing is extremely rational. Those are my (highly non-consensus) thoughts…
the Plug retweeted
New LNG export permits are on pause because of climate change.
Meanwhile, U.S. coal exports just hit a five-year high.
reuters.com/markets/commodit…
the Plug retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The two largest economies in Africa are under huge financial strain.
Yesterday, Nigeria de facto devalued the naira by ~30% (after another ~30% devaluation in June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound ~50% weaker in the black market.
the Plug retweeted
A Senior U.S. Official has told NBC News that the Biden Administration alongside Defense Officials are preparing for a “Military Campaign in the Middle East which could last for Several Weeks” and include Strikes on Iranian and Iranian-Backed Forces in Iraq and Syria as well as Cyberattacks against Targets likely located inside of Iran.
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Something I’m thinking about a lot is data uncertainty in emissions inventories.
The methane leakage problem is probably the most obvious example but so much of our fundamental data is stitched together with string and scotch tape. No measurements, huge error bars!
the Plug retweeted
Going to keep this obscure to avoid controversy, but there are four related issues with the next steps for the 45V NPRM as Treasury seeks flexibility.
Those are:
- Energy storage
- Curtailment
- 5% freebie rule
- "Annual aggregation" calculation
Gotta bundle them coherently.
the Plug retweeted
As we relax into a "no landing" 2024 year be mindful that inflation in key sectors will likely reappear and resurge with supply chain disruptions
This chart strongly suggests that every time super=core PCE (core services less housing) falls far below US wage growth, as in 2009, it rebounds sharply thereafter.
We see upside risks to US inflation going forward.
To find out more, go to:
d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/produ…
the Plug retweeted
I have made a lot of analogies between energy and food over the years. That’s partly because I am the co-founder of an energy research firm—which means I spend a lot of my time talking about energy—and I also happen to really enjoy eating. 🧵
It’s also partly because even people who don’t know the most basic things about energy usually have an intuitive understanding of food. Plus, it turns out that food and energy have a lot of similarities.
Some are obvious. For example, energy fuels machines much as food fuels animals. More abstractly, similar economic forces and physical constraints influence demand and supply in both cases.
Want proof? When prices rise, diners and drivers consume less. Likewise, storage requires proper infrastructure, whether for electrons or egg salad.