John Thames (@trader_low) profile picture
Leeds, England
Joined December 2019
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John Thames retweeted
Energy is America’s real weapon in a multipolar world “Faced with an emerging multipolar order, the United States appears to be relying less on dominance of every frontier technology than on leveraging its influence over the world’s most finite and strategically vital commodities: oil and gas.” “The reported US offer to accept Russian diesel under a waiver should therefore be read less as a major market intervention than as a symbolic demonstration of leverage.” The contrast with artificial intelligence is central to the argument. AI is transformative, but its supply is potentially replicable. No company or state is likely to monopolize it indefinitely: models diffuse, open-source alternatives emerge and competitors – including Chinese firms – can narrow capability gaps. Oil and gas are different. They are finite, geographically concentrated and dependent on pipelines, ports, chokepoints, refineries, and political access. Their value lies not only in their scarcity but in the fact that control over their movement can be contested. This is why the US may regard energy, rather than AI supremacy, as the more durable foundation of geopolitical power. A technology leader can be overtaken; a state that influences access to the Gulf, Venezuela or Russian energy flows retains leverage even if its technological edge narrows. asiatimes.com/2026/11/energy…
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How can i target tax breaks for vape shops?
Small biz rate relief raised from £12,000 to £18,000 for retail and hospitality (other biz rates in those sectors frozen). (Not my area but in case it impacts you) #Budget2026
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Got to appreciate this world-class piece of misinformation by Carbon Brief. Got regurgitated by everyone, including Kier Starmer when he was PM. Respect the game.
When you hear Jacob Rees-Mogg today claiming that fracking is the way to solve our energy crisis remember this: renewable power is now NINE times cheaper than gas.
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Most expensive movie ever made
DEMAND DESTRUCTION: Ineos will idle three of its chemical plants in northern England due to high energy costs🇬🇧 ⚠️ “With gas prices now 12 times the level in the US and eight times that of China, we just cannot compete,” said Chairman Ratcliffe bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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John Thames retweeted
Jacob Rees-Mogg has been talking about duty and upset people, quite rightly. If war comes, he says, people must join up. Some may have to die. That is how countries last. Rome fell when citizens paid others to fight. The line would be ordinary if it came from a man of the nation. It is damaging because it comes from a man who once seemed to stand with the nation against something else. A few years ago Michael Rainsborough and I argued that Western government had ceased to be national in the ordinary sense and become imperial: a system of management over peoples, not a home belonging to a people. Empires do not need citizens. They need subjects, communities, and a priesthood of progress. The nation state asks for loyalty among equals. The new arrangement asks for deference to a civilising mission aimed, more and more, at the historic population itself. Brexit was a sovereign native revolt against that. It was not a tantrum about trade. It was a people saying they would not be administered as a province of a postnational order. In 2016–19 Rees-Mogg looked as if he understood the distinction. He treated the referendum as a valid instruction. That put him on the national side of the only argument that mattered. The slouch in the Commons in September 2019 was easy to misread as mere insult. At the time it could be taken as something colder and, in its way, political: magisterial unconcern toward the people who thought the vote was an outrage to be managed away. He would not sit up for them. Many of us forgave the manners because the target of the manners seemed right. Turley was correct that the pose was ugly. She was wrong about what the fight was. The new interview wrecks the alibi. The same loucheness is still there. The object has changed. He is no longer declining to perform anxiety for the postnational court. He is reciting its war liturgy and calling it duty. The men who are to kill and die are not being asked to defend a bordered people. They are being invited to service an imperium that still cannot hold a coast, still treats national self-assertion as a public-order problem, and still speaks the language of progress when it means rule. That is why the sofa now looks different. In 2019 the sprawl could pass for aristocratic refusal. In 2026 it reads as arrogance, detachment, dishonesty and stupidity: the ease of a man who will not live the risk he names. On Russia the sermon moralises what does not need moral theatre. States act from interest. Russia has a historically intelligible one in its near abroad. Kennan and others said that driving a victorious alliance onto the ruins of Russian power would produce a collision. The collision came. One may dislike Moscow’s answer. Ascribing ‘brutality’ as if it were the point is a progressive habit: turn strategy into sin so that the only virtuous pose is imperial supervision of the sinner. As wars are fought, this one has not been the cartoon of indiscriminate slaughter the commentary requires. Whether one grants that or not is secondary. The primary fact is simpler. Russia is behaving like a nation. Britain’s elite is not. That is the disgrace in what Rees-Mogg said. He had the chance to remain what Brexit briefly suggested he was: a spokesman for a country that still existed as a country. Instead he talks now like a provincial officer of the progressive imperium, surprised that the natives might object to dying for a project that has spent a generation dissolving them. Duty, from that perspective, doesn’t come across honestly. It feels like the Union flag being draped deceitfully over the progressive imperial agenda. The slouch in 2019 was a tell. Then it said: I will not be hustled by the managerial elite. Now it says: I am comfortable among them. A foolish man, which I now think he is, can be right only sometimes. The blithe pose now grates heavily. I wouldn’t trust the lives of my son and daughter to this project and its exponents. Just back TF off.
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The USA delegation voted 2-0 for a boe rate hike today
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Remember Bailey’s gilt cliff.
Replying to @scientificecon
Pound falls sharply against dollar after Bank confirms bond-buying end date theguardian.com/politics/202…
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John Thames retweeted
All the handwringing over AI ending humanity is the best example of the Wolf that cried "Wolf!" Give me a break. It's all Hollywood.
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John Thames retweeted
Q: how will the USA deliver the gas to Europe to prevent Putin waging economic war A: fracking
John Thames retweeted
And maybe, it was never about Israel...maybe it was all about Global energy dominance. Venezuela 🇻🇪 303B barrels secured via Maduro removal-Jan 2026 and 65B “special present to SPR” which we know is BS (as oil price +3% right now as I told you on Friday)-August 2026 Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 267B barrels via key strategic partnership -Nov 2025 Iran 🇮🇷 208B barrels -Ongoing Canada 🇨🇦177B barrels via deep economic integration, potentially Alberta referendum, so far best achievement is renaming a lake…. Perhaps a "very stable genius" indeed tried securing 60% of world's oil reserves in an era of AI revolution? It is what it is…🫡🪒
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John Thames retweeted
Pandora’s box. Everyone knows whats coming. No one wants to admit to it. But EU warning citizens to get out of Kyiv now while they can Russia general command announced yday official opening of targeting Ukraine power sector Same date as last year. Ukraine had 54.5GW of gencap prewar. Has 12GW now. How much will survive? There is already a c5GW deficit vs demand. This is going to be grim
🇬🇧🇳🇱🇮🇹🇩🇪 The UK, Netherlands, Italy, and Germany are urging their citizens not to travel to Ukraine — and those already there to leave immediately. European countries are warning about increased attacks and a harsh winter with prolonged power, water, and heating outages. #Ukraine #Europe #TravelWarning
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John Thames retweeted
Axios is so dumb that they don’t even bother to fact check 90 million b/d when they quote US officials on Venezuela. Just use your brain for a second. 90 million b/d?
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Solid message on taxes.
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I’m just describing what IS happening and why, not what *should* happen or if it will work. In the same way, I said Trump would win in 2016; there would be a U.S.-China Cold War splitting the world; Russia would invade Ukraine; and the U.S. would attack Iran as far back as 2023. The risks you flag are clear. Even so, the National Security risks are clear on both sides in different ways. One hopes common sense prevails from both sides - and politesse.
And what you're missing @TheMichaelEvery is that by pursuing it the way it is, i.e. attacking Canadian sovereignty, the U.S. is weakening its national security by creating the pain tolerance necessary for Canada to pursue policies to limit exposure to the U.S. 1940, 1958, 1988 are examples of how the U.S. achieved national security imperatives effectively without being (even because it wasn't) an asshole to its neighbor. This week, the US is trading short-term wins powered by Howard Lutnick for a less trusting Canada in the future. The biggest critique for what the U.S. is doing is not emotive headlines, trolling, etc., as you point out. It's that what the U.S. is doing will be ineffective to achieve the geostrategic end you see, and is in fact demonstrably counter-productive to the very notion of Fortress North America in the first place.
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US strategic planning has for decades viewed German-Russian rapproachment as its nightmare scenario, which is why books like these get published: to uphold old,discredited orthodoxies upon which US dominance is based
“Failure,” the bestseller, by Katja Gloger & Georg Mascolo is now out in English - a must-read for anyone interested in a forensic investigation of Germany’s relationship with Russia, peppered with exclusive details about Putin & Merkel and the road to war in Ukraine
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What would a blackout look like.... The Government, NESO and Ofgem are constantly telling us it's all good, nothing to see here While this summer has seen the grid going outside safe operational limits, multiple margin warnings, multiple breaches of interconnector trading limits, several balancing system outages and now apparently a cyber attack Maybe the DESNZ /NESO/ Ofgem cartel should listen to the warnings of the engineers who actually run the grid and get back to taking care of the basics before it's too late because the consequences of failure are no joke #EnergySecurity @Miatsf @mgshanks @ClaireCoutinho @AndrewBowie_MP @griffitha @NJ_Timothy @TiceRichard @DavidGHFrost @ColinMoynihanUK @mattwridley @cmackinlay @Iromg @AllisonPearson @MerrynSW @EdConwaySky @mattotele @jonathan_leake @afneil @ofgem @energygovuk @neso_energy dailymail.com/news/article-1…
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John Thames retweeted
After the death of Sir Ian Wood & @bp's decision to exit the UK offshore, @andyburnham can take a political & economic win: revive the North Sea, get jobs & tax, neutralise Reform & Con, help pay for net-zero @energyconnects_
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John Thames retweeted
TOP 10 PROPERTY PRICE FALLS IN REAL TERMS City of Aberdeen: -56.5% City of London: -50.8% City of Westminster: -48.5% Armagh City Banbridge and Craigavon: -48.3% Ards and North Down: -47.9% Belfast: -47.4% Mid Ulster: -47.4% Lisburn and Castlereagh: -47.3% Mid and East Antrim: -46.9% Causeway Coast and Glens: -45.7%
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