Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
You should be skeptical as to why the market keeps letting you bid the 80k break
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
ok I’m starting to understand why people like this place
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
HMRC has quietly sent hundreds of letters to wealthy people asking them to reveal what they own. Not what they earn or what tax they've paid, but what they own.
Here's what's going on. A unit called the Wealthy Team covers anyone with "incomes of £200,000 or more, or assets equal to or above £2m in any of the last three years". That's about 850,000 people. The letters ask for a meeting to discuss "sources of wealth", "future intentions", trusts, companies, family arrangements and even "significant life events" you expect in the coming years.
It is presented as voluntary, but there's a nudge: "We may still need to carry out compliance checks on your tax returns. However, speaking with you first may help avoid this."
Until now, inspectors have usually only asked about income and earnings. Experts call this a "sea change". One lawyer asked the obvious question: "does HMRC have a right to know what someone owns and not simply that they have paid the right amount of tax?" A tax adviser said: "No other G20 country asks for this level of detail from its taxpayers about what they own."
So what is it for? Advisers suspect it is groundwork for an exit tax, a charge on your wealth for leaving the country. As one put it: "Building that knowledge could indeed be part of moving towards an exit tax."
You don't have to be a billionaire to see the problem.
The real bottleneck is monkeys.
Citrini says the real preclinical bottleneck is monkeys, which take four years to breed and are harder to scale than memory supply
“There’s a huge shortage of monkeys and the the you can’t really, that’s probably the most important thing for pre-clinical testing."
"And I know a lot of people are going to be like morally opposed to this, but I’ll just say one thing, which is for the, you know, the medicine is closer than ever before to a world where it really is, I say closer than ever before, that doesn’t mean this is going to happen tomorrow or within the next two years or what, but closer to a world where in silica or on on a computer you can simulate, say, like toxicology studies, right, and and reduce the need for animal testing."
"I know that sounds counterintuitive because it’s, okay, well, why are you like investing in this company that that does animal testing? Well, the reason for that is in order to get closer to that world, what you need is more data, right? Like you need, you need more experimental data from animal testing, and monkeys are irreplaceable, right?"
"Unless you want to do them in humans. If you want to get as close as possible to humans, obviously the answer is monkeys. And it’s it’s harder to expand the capacity of monkeys than it is to increase the supply of memory, right? Like the the the time it takes, I think it’s four years to to breed these these monkeys.”
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Replying to @FilmLadd
This is indeed one of the main reasons that Starlink must remain a civilian operation.
It can be used for infrastructure that is military, but it cannot be used for unequivocally offensive strikes that make it fair game to be struck back.
An adversary blowing up Starlink satellites would create a domino effect of destruction that would generate a vast field of debris making space unusable.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
AI data center tenants are now demanding penalties of more than $5 million per day if developers fail to deliver power and facilities on time, up from around $1 million earlier this year, according to The Information.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Banks' deposit flight panic was always wrong.
Why? @austincampbell breaks it down to @CoinDesk
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
People ask: “Are you dunking on neolabs?”
Most neolabs will fail. That’s normal. But I believe more AI breakthroughs are coming.
I’m skeptical of those following the same playbook as OpenAI and Anthropic. Raising $1B and spending 50% on GPUs doesn’t make you a $10B company.
I’m rooting for the contrarians. Challenge scaling laws. Challenge transformers. Challenge how models learn. Challenge the next-token prediction paradigm.
My bigger concern is that brilliant researchers don’t necessarily make great founders. In my experience, researchers often struggle to turn their research into great products / sustainable businesses.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
We are in the middle of a meaningful supply shock in tokens per unit compute.
First margins increase like crazy, looking like fantastic businesses.
Second, firms bid up GPUs and semis to capture the margin.
Third, the market floods with supply and prices drop.
Macro 101.
Replying to @brandonjcarl
Same thing shows up on one node. Our A100 40GB box went from 2,182 to 4,235 tokens per second with software only. The rent stayed put and the tokens per hour nearly doubled.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
1/3 Railway leaked customer env vars on Oct 21, and @tayvano_ caught the drainer first. I traced it end to end with @goldrushdev: 22 chains, 231 wallets, $381K. Every drain was signed with the victim's own key. Stolen private keys, not phishing. github.com/uwecerron/railway…
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Fertilizer through Hormuz has dropped to zero.
No fertilizer cargoes crossing the strait in September or October.
Before the war, about 20% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizer went through it, Fertilizer Daily reports.
The Gulf also supplies about half of the world’s traded sulfur.
Hear me out: urea isn’t the problem.
China raised its nitrogen exports about 47% and the US about 60%.
By the end of August urea was back to its January price, IFPRI data shows.
Sulfur is the problem.
It has more than doubled, to above $1,000 a tonne, and phosphate is up 25–30%.
You need sulfur to make phosphate fertilizer.
Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could pass 3 trillion rupees, against 1.71 trillion budgeted.
Oil found other ways out of the Gulf.
Sulfur hasn’t.
source: World Visualized
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
The real-world asset (RWA) market is becoming increasingly diversified across blockchains.
Ethereum remains the dominant network, accounting for more than 40% of RWA market cap, but its share has fallen nearly 30 percentage points over the past year.
Solana, BNB Chain, Stellar and Avalanche are among the networks gaining ground as tokenization expands beyond Ethereum.
H/t @cryptounfolded
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Replying to @traders_guild
Wait a sec. 🤔
I’ve heard this before..
That’s from StarCraft:
It’s referencing two races of very different characteristics.
Zerg vs Protoss.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Did Elon short $CRWV as well? 😓
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Hard to see how hardware that fully pays for itself in less than 3 years and has significant residual value will result in low returns on capital.
There's lots of demand for travel, so airline capacity keeps growing, even though airlines are bad businesses that don't earn their cost of capital and are constantly squeezed by oil, wages and aircraft costs.
NVDA = Boeing/Airbus + GE/Safran (order-book pricing power, plus recurring aftermarket)
Memory = refiners (windfall profits when supply is tight, until the cycle turns)
Neoclouds = aircraft lessors (levered, contracted bets on the residual value of depreciating assets)
Shells/power/cooling = airports (nothing flies without them, so they get built)
Models = airlines (huge capex, price wars, compute is jet fuel, researchers are the pilots' union)
Apps that own the customer = Booking.com
The frontier models are fighting commoditization but market forces are trying to commoditize them.
If demand for intelligence is there (which it is), then the buildout will continue, even if returns are poor for many of the players. Travelers win. Airlines rarely do.
Uwe Jens Cerron tradersguild.global retweeted
Remember that Elon now has an incentive to say this. He is essentially a competitor of the Neoclouds.
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers

































