Growth stock investor/blogger - Not advice
Miami, FL
Joined April 2021
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exponentialdave retweeted
NVDA just told you the depreciation debate is irrelevant and nobody’s repricing.
Burry closed his fund after shorting NVDA, claiming companies overstate GPU useful life at 2-3 years. The market debates whether depreciation should be 3, 5, or 7 years. AWS just cut AI hardware depreciation from 6 years back to 5.
Then NVDA drops this in their earnings transcript: A100 GPUs shipped in May 2020 are still running at full utilization in November 2025, powered by vastly improved software.
That statement just invalidated the entire depreciation debate.
Here’s what people are getting wrong. They’re modeling GPU economics like traditional data center hardware with fixed depreciation curves. CoreWeave uses 6-year depreciation cycles. Microsoft and Alphabet extended server equipment to 6 years. Everyone’s arguing about the right number.
But NVDA just revealed the actual dynamic. The value isn’t depreciating on a fixed schedule. Software improvements are extending hardware utility faster than the hardware ages. CUDA optimizations, framework updates, and model efficiency gains mean a 2020 chip running 2025 software delivers more economic value than a 2020 chip running 2020 software.
Think about what “full utilization” means for data center economics. These aren’t spare chips sitting idle. They’re generating revenue at capacity 5.5 years after purchase. The software moat keeps expanding, which keeps old hardware economically viable.
This completely inverts the depreciation model everyone’s fighting about. The question isn’t “when does the hardware become obsolete?” The question is “how fast can software improvements extend hardware utility?”
A100 resale prices saw appreciation in early 2024 during H100 supply constraints, proving the market values backward compatibility and software leverage over raw specs.
The competitive dynamic here is brutal. NVDA controls the entire software stack. Every CUDA improvement, every framework optimization, every model efficiency gain extends the life of every GPU they’ve ever sold. Competitors need to match not just the current generation, but the accumulated value of 15 years of software development.
Burry bet on hardware obsolescence. NVDA just showed him software determines economic life, not silicon generations.
$NVDA basically answering Burry:
“The A100s we shipped six years ago are still running at full utilization today, now powered by a much stronger software stack.”
exponentialdave retweeted
$IREN signing a $9.7b cloud contract with $MSFT is a thesis-defining moment for shareholders
For the last couple of years, doubters have argued that $IREN is just another $BTC miner or, in recent months, that they can’t compete with the likes of $NBIS or $CRWV because they lack "software orchestration".
Well, it turns out that all of these doubts were severely mis-guided.
Investors who did extensive research and analysis of the AI sector understood that it was always just a question of time — not merely because $IREN "has the power", but because they have world-class engineers and a one-of-a-kind CTO in Denis Skrinnikoff.
Combine that with excellent leadership at the top & this was a forgone conclusion.
Now keep in mind, this multibillion $ deal — which, on the surface, appears to have a very strong ROIC profile — barely encompasses 300 MW (gross) of $IREN's ~3 GW power portfolio.
There will be many more deals, whether in hyperscale cloud contracts or in the form of high-yielding “premium” colocation partnerships.
This is truly just the beginning...
Congrats @danroberts0101 & Team. Couldn’t be prouder as a shareholder today! 👏🎉
exponentialdave retweeted
I think people forget how bad 2020/2021 was lol
$OKLO needs to 3-5x FROM HERE for it to be like 2021
2021 had 0 revenue companies like:
$LCID - $90B
$RVIN - $100B+ valuation during IPO(larger than ford at the time)
$NKLA - $30B ending up being a scam
$FSR (Fisker) - billions with 0 products
And that’s just a few names off the top of my head. Plenty of other.
THEN you had everyone and I mean everyone talking about stocks.
“What should I buy”
“How do I get rich”
Every friend I had was now an “options pro”.
THEN you had NFTs, selling for millions of dollars.
THEN you had $100Bs in Covid stimulus checks.
THEN you had FFR at near 0%.
This is NOT 2021. I’m not saying it’s not a local top but any comparison to 20/21’ is based on their own FOMO IMO.
exponentialdave retweeted
Looking forward to Fall 2022 - early 2023 Cybersecurity IPOs.
Everyone is pumped about Klaviyo and Instacart. However, think some cyber cos w/ decent metrics, like @rubrikInc could go public by YE.
Other candidates in the pipeline (based on likelihood of going public over NTM and their amount raised):
1) Arctic Wolf (Raised $1.1B)
2) OneTrust ($970M)
3) Lacework ($1.9B)
4) Netskope ($1.5B)
5) Cybereason ($845M)
6) Illumio ($558M)
7) Synk ($1.2B)
8) Wiz ($900M)
9) Tanium ($1.12B)
10) 1Password ($920B)
Highest prospect/fastest growing: @wiz , @snyksec, @rubrikInc and @Netskope.
Data by Momentum Cyber.
exponentialdave retweeted
Just finished listening to the $SNOW call while reading the transcript. Outside of the raw numbers, this is a VERY good report.
What I LOVED!!
Consumption: Optimizations, while always on-going, have essentially bottomed.
*NOT SEEING CUSTOMERS REDUCE CONSUMPTION RIGHT NOW
*AUGUST SHAPING UP VERY GOOD
*Snowpark + 70% QoQ
Sales channels:
customers re-engaged
*early renewals
*discussions with customers more around new projects, migrations, use cases, LLMs instead of optimizations
GREAT QUESTION FROM PATRICK COLVILLE.
when will AI spend more clearly hit the software layer?
I think it's going to be next year. As I said, it's going to take some time for AI. And people are still struggling to get GPUs. And there is a time lag between when a chip manufacturer sells their chips to it gets built into the hardware that actually gets deployed in a rack in a data center, and it gets deployed to customers.
I think you will see the leading actually happening in months to come. But the material impact, I think most analysts out there are seeing in 2024. And we tend to agree with that.
And I would say in my prior life, when we were buying racks of servers, there's a six-month delay between when we bought them and when they were actually going into production. And I don't see that any different with GPUs.
exponentialdave retweeted
Michael Burry predicted 18 of the last 2 crashes.
When he will be right again eventually, I'm sure there will be people fainting in admiration. 🙄
exponentialdave retweeted
The S&P 500 is up 18% this year.
Is the market overvalued?
History says, "Yes...by 60%!"
Here's why "History" is wrong:
exponentialdave retweeted
Here is my recent interview with @hhhypergrowth -- investingwiththewhales.subst…
We talked alot about AI/ML as well as $SNOW $NET $DDOG $AYX $MDB $CFLT $FSLY and several others plus Databricks and why he's excited about the IPO (likely in 2024)
exponentialdave retweeted
It’s all about AI in Premium this week, covering Generative AI and LLMs.
* Layers of AI … tech explainer and what’s driving innovations
* Ramifications of AI … where its going, impacts, and investment layers of interest
* OpenAI and Microsoft $MSFT moves of late
exponentialdave retweeted
funny some people can’t admit $TSLA has been a wildly successful stock. I’m neither bull nor bear, but I have a friend who works at a hedge fund who’s been insisting it will crash for years. Just admit you’re wrong lol - it’s up 27,000% since inception.
exponentialdave retweeted
9: Humans are born to be bad at investing
Understand that your emotions are going to play all kinds of tricks on you along the way
exponentialdave retweeted
Many ask me, how are you calm during big sell offs? Many reasons:
a) I don’t invest any money that I will need any time soon.
b) I live below my means.
c) I never quit my day job.
d) I’ve been investing since I was 9 - seen many a market drop. It always comes back. (1/2)
exponentialdave retweeted
Another random chat coming at you tomorrow an hour after markets close, and I’ll be joined by @StackInvesting, @hhhypergrowth, @VNunnemaker, @GauchoRico, and @xponentialdave! Can’t wait to talk about some great companies with these awesome gentlemen! xitter.gq/i/spaces/1eaKbNRVYloKX
exponentialdave retweeted
1⃣ Very few get rich quick.
2⃣Almost everyone can get rich slow.
The irony is almost everyone chases1⃣while very few choose2⃣.
exponentialdave retweeted
“I told you the market was going to crash”
- James, a 65 year old value investor who has been in cash since 2011
exponentialdave retweeted
Cybersecurity is one of the fastest growing tech sectors today as a result of Cyberattacks increasing 2300% over the past few years!
This critical industry can be complex to fully understand it all.
In this thread, I'll breakdown the entire cybersecurity industry into steps:
exponentialdave retweeted
I prioritize slugging % over batting average as a long term investor in unproven disruptors.
I will make bad picks sometimes. It’s inevitable.
But the good picks matter so much more.
That’s the beauty of finite downside & uncapped potential upside.
Position size accordingly.