William J. Perry Lecturer at @StanfordCISAC & Distinguished Fellow at @fpri, host of the @ACWpodcast, member @theNASEM CISAC, ex-ISAB at @StateDep

Half Moon Bay, CA
Joined March 2009
Thank you for your extremely good-faith criticism. I will give it the attention it deserves.
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Behold: The US Defense Intelligence Agency has released a report on challenges to security in space, including an NEI image of China’s spaceplane from Maxar, taken in 2024.
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Yes.
Can you do this with Pokhran too?
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Pakistan announced nuclear explosions at two sites in 1998: five at Ras Koh on May 28, then another in the Kharan Desert on May 30. @CoreyAH identified where the Kharan shot likely happened. I processed 1998 SPOT & LANDSAT imagery and ... she's right! Clear ground disturbance.
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You can read @CoreyAH's original article with David Albright and Frank Pabian in Earth Observation Magazine. Corey mentioned it during a conversation at a conference last week, asking if we easier access to data today then she did then. We do! eomonline.com/Common/Archive…
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I processed the four images by hand, but a real answer requires working out whether the color change is persistent. To do that, I used @planet's new AI agent, Lanette, to process two years worth of LANDSAT images. Yep, that's a persistent change in surface material, likely because of the nuclear explosion. ai.planet.com/deep-research/…
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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis retweeted
I vibe coded this uncertain nuclear effects model named p(missy) and it expands the single point estimates we use for targeting and weapons effects calculations back into the actual uncertain ranges. link below!
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What a score!
My favorite thing about secondhand book and library sales in Northern Virginia is you occasionally get an insane treasure for $4. I love the Friends of Arlington Library sale so much
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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis retweeted
NEW: Saudi Arabia is doubling its ability to produce ballistic missiles at al-Duwadimi. New facilities will allow the Kingdom to cast more and larger missiles to deliver larger payloads at longer ranges. Read more about it from @DuitsmanMS and I at @FPRI & @Reuters. Links below
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I had not noticed that China is reporting compute again now that they took the lead again. (This chart is why the US should not resume nuclear explosive testing.)
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👋
Replying to @Pinboard
People lining up to get a Ground Zero selfie
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I don’t see anything weird about wearing a Hiroshima Carp hat to Ground Zero. Fat Man and Little Boy are completely different bombs!
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Sunrise over Trinity.
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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis retweeted
My latest @IISS_org Military Balance blog utilises newly accessible @vantortech satellite imagery to reveal the US and Israeli strikes on Iran's two space launch-launch sites, with Tehran's space ambitions previously accused as cover for longer-range ballistic missile development
IISS analysis of satellite imagery shows the extent to which US and Israeli strikes damaged two of Iran’s space-launch sites: one operated by the Iranian Space Agency and the other by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Read the latest analysis by @JosephHDempsey: go.iiss.org/4hMshIx
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Dr. Jeffrey Lewis retweeted
What is the state of Iranian missile production sites? Thanks to new imagery from our friends at Planet Labs, the @FPRI IDAC Team took a look! Bottom line, many of the facilities are still severely damaged, with some debris removal and repair work ongoing. Link below:
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Our friends at @planet got a shot of the launch barge hours before South Korea's "hypersonic" missile test. 👏All long-range missiles are hypersonic.👏
Breaking News. The South Korean Presidential Office has released photos for the first time showing the HGV (Hypersonic Glide Vehicle) striking a maritime target. It struck the target in "high dive" mode after flying at high and low altitudes, and its operational range is estimated to be 200~3,000+ km. A booster appearing larger than those of the Hyunmoo-IIC, II-D?, or IV-1? has been identified, and the glide vehicle also features a shape suitable for high-maneuverability, long-range flight. It appears that the new HGV launcher is being operated by either replacing only the canisters on the Hyunmoo-V's 18x18 TEL or by using a TEL slightly smaller than the 18x18. We are frighteningly oblivious to the determination of their ADD, the Blue House, politicians, military, Supreme Command, and missile industry. Since the HGV must fly at high and low altitudes, its minimum range is likely 200 km, and if it does not perform complex maneuvers, its maximum range will exceed 3,000 km. The ROK Strategic Command has so many existing ballistic and cruise missiles to send to North, it is presumed that this system will be allocated to other regions.
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I thought my 160 boxes of books were impressive, only to learn @planet4589 has me beat by AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE.
The 1,170 boxes are now moved in. Several months of unpacking still to do. Also more months of construction (plumbing , etc) and more bills to come. But this is huge.
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THEY DID MAKE THE SAME MOVIE IN 1980 -- or, rather, 1979. It was called First Strike. And they are, indeed, very similar!
… the funniest part about filming a documentary on the US nuclear triad is that you could’ve filmed it in 1980, and the only thing that would’ve changed are peoples’ faces
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The one difference, I suspect, is that First Strike is either very darkly funny or the greatest film ever made mocking the Air Force's general state of readiness.
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Submariners, by contrast, are depicted as models of professionalism, decorum, and readiness.
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It’s a great museum and the Scud is just behind the Silkworm.
Step inside the history that shapes national security. Select DIA Museum tours are now open to accredited university groups and student organizations, offering a rare look at military intelligence tradecraft in action. Request a visit at DIA.mil.
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