Nothing here is financial advice. DYOR
Joined February 2026
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AverageInvestor retweeted
The global response to Musk and Trump's pressure on Ukraine, accompanied by a temporary shutdown of Starshield, was swift.
Here's where things stand now:
🇨🇦 CANADA
The Canadian government has signed a CAD 2.3 billion contract with national satellite operator Telesat to expand its Lightspeed low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation.
Lightspeed was originally developed as a commercial competitor to Starlink and OneWeb. However, the government is now funding the integration of a dedicated, secure military communications system operating in the Ka-band and has already placed an order for additional satellites with Canadian aerospace company MDA Space.
🇫🇮 FINLAND
Finnish company ICEYE, a developer of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites, and Nokia have announced a strategic partnership to develop sovereign LEO broadband communications systems for interested European governments.
The project aims to provide European countries with a ready-made platform allowing each government to fully own and control its own satellite communications infrastructure, including encryption, without dependence on foreign providers.
This concept is known as "Sovereign SatCom."
🇪🇺 EUROPEAN UNION
The European Commission has moved toward awarding manufacturing contracts and increasing funding for its sovereign satellite communications network, IRIS².
Airbus Defence and Space has already signed contracts in Toulouse to manufacture the first 66 LEO satellites. Thales Alenia Space has been tasked with developing specialized secure payloads for government applications.
The program has been expanded to 348 satellites, with an additional €4 billion in funding.
🇰🇷 SOUTH KOREA
South Korea has successfully conducted its first orbital launch of the year using its domestically developed Nuri (KSLV-II) rocket from the Naro Space Center.
The rocket simultaneously deployed 14 payloads, including additional satellites for the national NEONSAT constellation and several military CubeSats.
🇯🇵 JAPAN
Japan has allocated approximately $1 billion in subsidies to develop a nationally controlled direct-to-device satellite network.
The system is designed to allow ordinary smartphones to communicate directly with satellites during major earthquakes or military conflicts.
The project involves cooperation between Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile.
🇺🇦 UKRAINE
The UASAT project, an initiative by STETMAN and a consortium of partners, has successfully completed registration with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).
Preparations are now underway for the UASAT-NANO test satellite, which will mark the first step toward creating Ukraine's own sovereign satellite constellation.
🇨🇿 CZECH REPUBLIC
At the same time, agreements with the Czech Republic are being finalized for the joint development of a constellation of optical reconnaissance satellites called Suziria ("Constellation").
Ukraine is also expected to gain access to backup capacity within Europe's GOVSATCOM system.
🇩🇪 GERMANY
German company Isar Aerospace successfully launched its Spectrum rocket into orbit carrying satellites on September 5.
THE BIG PICTURE
The brilliant strategists Elon and Donnie wanted to show us who controls the red button for satellite internet.
Well, they succeeded.
And in a strange way, perhaps we should thank them.
Because they have reminded the entire world of one simple truth:
Whoever controls your communications can control your future.
And now countries around the world are working to make sure that no single billionaire — or American president — can ever hold that power over them again.
AverageInvestor retweeted
Musk’s interview went great: Reporter: What is your thought on the ban of foreign students, you were one of those kids, right? Musk: “I think we want to stick to talking about spaceships.” Reporter: I was told that any topic is good. Musk: “Well no.”
AverageInvestor retweeted
This Australian's reply to Trump's rant about “NATO not being there for America” is perfect.
"Mate. You run a country with 600,000 homeless people sleeping on the street tonight. A country where 40% of adults can't cover a $400 emergency without borrowing money. A country where insulin costs more than a car payment and people are rationing it to survive. A country where medical debt is the number 1 cause of bankruptcy. A country where women are dying in hospital car parks because doctors are too scared of abortion laws to treat a miscarriage.
You lock up more of your own citizens than any nation on earth. More than China. More than Russia. More than North Korea. The land of the free has 2 million people in cages, and a quarter of them haven't even been convicted of anything. They're just too poor to make bail.
Your life expectancy is going backwards. You're the only developed nation where that's happening. Your infant mortality rate is worse than Cuba's. Your kids do active shooter drills between maths and English while you sell the gunmaker's stock to your mates.
Your minimum wage hasn't moved in 15 years. You've got teachers working 2 jobs and veterans sleeping under bridges and you just spent a trillion dollars flattening a country that didn't attack you.
And you’ve got a convicted felon, adjudicating raping, paedophile protecting, porn star shagging insurrectionist running the biggest dumpster fire war campaign since the Taliban in Afghanistan thanked you very much for losing again.
And you're calling Greenland poorly run?
Greenland has universal healthcare. Free education. One of the lowest incarceration rates in the world. Nobody goes bankrupt there because they got sick. Nobody dies in a waiting room because their insurance said no.
'NATO wasn't there when we needed them." When exactly was that, champ? September 11? Because NATO invoked Article 5 for the first and only time in history FOR YOU. Soldiers from dozens of countries deployed, fought, bled, and died in Afghanistan FOR YOU. Australia wasn't even in NATO and we still showed up. For 20 years.
And you pulled out at 2am without telling anyone and left them to deal with the mess.
So maybe before you start calling other countries poorly run, have a look at your own backyard, you spray-tanned aluminium siding salesman. The only thing poorly run in this picture is your f----- mouth."
Credit to: Jim Keller
AverageInvestor retweeted
In case you're confused about what's going on with Elon Musk tanking the neoclouds, here's the timeline of everything that's happened
> Oct 13: Chamath posts a chart of $CRWV bonds yielding 15%. Musk replies one word. "Yikes"
> Oct 14: $CRWV falls 15.5% in one day. $NBIS -10%, $IREN -10%. Gartner warns the same day that 80% of neoclouds could disappear by 2030
> Oct 15: $CRWV credit default swaps hit a RECORD 1,100+ bps. The market is pricing a 60%+ chance they default within 5 years. Their 2031 bonds yield 16%
> Oct 16: the bonds fall under 80 cents. Distressed. $CRWV down another 12%. The stock lost about 25% that week
> Oct 19: Goldman upgrades $CRWV to Buy anyway. Stock does nothing
> Oct 22: $NBIS raises $3.5B from Citi. It matures in ONE year. That's the kind of money still available to these guys
> Oct 25: a clip of $NBIS's CEO from GTC Berlin goes around X. He admits debt markets and asset-backed financing have "temporarily dried up"
> Oct 25: Musk goes in. "200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation." Says debt markets are shut for anyone without real revenue outside AI data centers. Says SpaceX just closed $40B of debt to buy GPUs because they have Starlink and launch revenue
> Someone asks if he's tanking them so he can buy one cheap. Musk: "SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless"
> Sunday night: $CRWV and $NBIS down another 2.3% overnight. $IREN -2%
$CRWV is down 38% in a month. $NBIS is down 33%
Also worth noting - SpaceX sells AI compute too. Anthropic's deals with SpaceXAI could be worth up to $84.5B through 2029. Musk is a competitor talking about his competition and might just be trying to starve his competitors with x
AverageInvestor retweeted
You know who needs Neoclouds to survive?
NVIDIA.
You know who is the most valuable company in the world?
NVIDIA.
You know who competes with Neoclouds?
SpaceX.
Stop overthinking this…
$SPCX $NBIS $NVIDIA
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
AverageInvestor retweeted
I've always defended X as the only platform to be on for financial discourse.
But it's getting harder to when the owner constantly amplifies narratives of collapse… of companies whose interests conflict with his own at $SPCX or $TSLA.
Would people be comfortable if $NVDA Jensen Huang owned $META?
And then the timelines were dominated by his amplified narratives of $AVGO failing?
I can't see how that would be healthy for grassroots discussion.
AverageInvestor retweeted
I live in a small MAGA town.
I know MAGA people. I drink with them. I talk to them. I study them.
They’re not the loud Twitter yappers, at least most of them. They’re quieter. Slower. But the delusion runs deep, just bottled up in passive smiles and soft voices.
A few weeks ago, one of them tried to convert me at a bar. He knew I wasn’t into the Trump cult, but he started soft. Calm voice. Friendly tone.
“Mario, you’re white. You can drink a lot, you eat meat, “he was just surprised that I was eating rare burger” and drinking vodka chasing it with Guinness. He also said, “You’re one of us. You should feel proud.”
That’s their seduction tactic.
Not facts. Not logic. Just subtle tribal grooming.
“You’re white. You drink. You belong.”
It was almost sweet, in a sad, culty way.
Like a Jehovah’s Witness trying to sell you eternal life with a shaky brochure and cheap suit.
But let’s talk about the whole ecosystem.
The truth.
MAGA men?
Most are not warriors.
They’re out-of-shape, insecure, jealous small-town boys who peaked in high school, still clinging to stories from when they “almost went pro” or “should’ve been in the military.”
They’re proud of being able to drink a case of light beer, drive a truck, and scream about freedom while their knees buckle from sugar and rage.
They’re easy to manipulate because they don’t ask questions.
They don’t read.
They react.
They memorize memes like scripture and repeat them like gospel.
They think being loud equals being right.
They think the world is laughing with them.
It’s not.
The world’s laughing at them, when it’s not just ignoring them entirely.
MAGA women?
They’re caught in a brutal paradox, constantly screaming about how proud and strong they are, while reshaping every inch of their body to meet a fake beauty standard pushed by the very system they claim to hate.
Plastic lips. Inflated cheeks. Eyelashes thick as windshield wipers.
Trying to look rich while shopping clearance at Walmart.
They scream about “natural family values” while injecting Botox and collapsing into MLM scams that promise empowerment through overpriced lipstick.
They mock liberals for being “gender confused” while wearing more synthetic parts than a Barbie made in a Russian factory.
Here’s the thing: MAGA America isn’t just backward.
It’s boring. MAGA folks are simply subsimple.
There’s nothing imaginative about it. No new culture. No innovation. No ideas.
They don’t invent, they imitate.
They don’t challenge, they chant.
It’s the same five phrases over and over.
The same flag. The same truck. The same outfit.
Patriot cosplay.
And that’s why the world doesn’t just hate MAGA.
It forgets it.
Because once the shouting stops, there’s nothing under the hood.
Just cheap beer breath, fake smiles, and a belief that whiteness and loudness are still enough to matter.
You want the brutal truth?
Even without Trump, even without the cult, most of them would still be irrelevant.
Not because they’re evil.
But because they chose comfort over growth.
Tribalism over truth.
Imitation over imagination.
They don’t want to understand the world.
They want the world to stay small enough to understand them.
And that’s the saddest, most humiliating part.
AverageInvestor retweeted
I'll give Trump credit for one thing. He held up a mirror to America and exposed just how many people choose hatred and bigotry over humanity, cruelty over compassion, and selfishness over decency.
The worst part? They saw their reflection and loved it.
AverageInvestor retweeted
We are past the point of political disagreement. We are witnessing a catastrophic collision between unchecked narcissism and obvious neurological decay. It is the most dangerous intersection in American history: a man with the absolute power of the Presidency and the absolute cognitive failure of a person no longer tethered to reality.
AverageInvestor retweeted
Personally, I hope memory prices go even higher. I’m sick of the way Elon, Apple, and Jensen seem to treat memory makers like their lackeys.
What exactly can you do in the AI era without memory?
And which comes first?
SK hynix building a competitive AI accelerator and server business, or Tesla manufacturing memory at competitive yields and costs?
I hope memory companies seize this opportunity to expand beyond memory chips and build broader systems businesses.
AverageInvestor retweeted
Does anyone actually believe that sending everyone a $5k check will make them wealthier in the long run?
Sure, it might help temporarily. But what happens to purchasing power when the government keeps spending money it doesn't have?
And who ultimately pays for those checks?
You do! Through future taxes, inflation, or both.
AverageInvestor retweeted
All indicators point to war in the next few days:
- Massive U.S. military build-up over the past 2 weeks (ongoing)
- Iranian and Israeli military drills (Israeli jets over Syria and Iraq, Iranian ballistic missile launches)
- Warning by Israel to Hezbollah not to join a war with Iran, threatening to hold Lebanon itself responsible
- Qatar just warned it's citizens to prep for the worst
- No progress in the negotiations, with multiple leaks by many outlets regarding imminent strikes
- Massive escalation by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz as Gulf countries try to get as much oil out as they can before a restart of hostilities
The only question is, who wants to escalate before the midterms: Iran to harm Trump politically, or Trump and Israel to give a bombing campaign another try?
If I had to guess: The U.S/Israel may have intel of a pre-emtive Iranian strike being planned, and may strike first to avoid Trump getting humiliated
AverageInvestor retweeted
I hope the American people have finally realized that voting for Trump was a major fuck-up.
Nothing he did worked. Nothing.
The whole DOGE cost-cutting exercise with Musk was a massive fuck-up. The federal spending is up 9.6%. The American debt increased even further by 4 trillion.
So what the fuck did they save?
Deporting thousands of immigrants. Snatching people off the streets. Even killing civilians. For what?
Are American cities any safer? Is any of this really helping the economy? Seriously?
The tariff war. What the fuck did it bring to Americans besides higher prices and more inflation?
Is the economy doing great? Are Americans getting better jobs and salaries? Is life more affordable?
And the biggest fuck-up of all remains the war with Iran.
What did it achieve besides throwing away billions of dollars on weapons, leaving American and allied bases damaged, 865 American soldiers injured and 21 dead?
Blocking the flow of oil and gas. Sending fuel prices through the roof.
For what? What exactly did America gain?
And on top of all that, stabbing allies in the back. From Canadians to Europeans to Ukrainians. While praising Putin and Kim Jong Un.
What the fuck did Trump actually achieve?
Besides one massive fuck-up after another?
I hope Americans are finally starting to realize one simple thing:
When you vote for clowns, you get a circus.
You voted for a clown.
And you got one giant, expensive, dangerous, fucked-up circus.
AverageInvestor retweeted
Just dropped the $BRUN vs $WYFI vs $SHAZ article. I had quite a bit of fun digging into each of the companies and evaluating them.
I scored all three from 1 to 5 across eight sections straight from the filings: leadership, financials and funding, network, power and unit economics, contract quality, execution, governance and valuation.
One rents everything, one owns its power, one raised $2.6B and leans on NVIDIA, and the final scorecard is closer than you’d expect. Full breakdown below. Check it out!
AverageInvestor retweeted
Ben Affleck reveals he writes Python, understands convolutional neural networks, worked extensively with GPUs, and used his celebrity status to get private looks at Google and OpenAI’s video models
“I’ve always been kind of into computers since I was young. Then, when film started to move from analog film to digital, I became more interested in that aspect of it. The visual-effects workflow for many years has included machine learning, so I can write pretty shitty Python scripts and stuff like that.
“With convolutional neural networks, which were the precursors to what the transformer can do, which is much more computation simultaneously, you would do things like look at what’s called a tensor. That’s the numerical translation of a visual image in numbers, like the batch number, the frame number and the red, green and blue values of each pixel in each frame. It’s just that simple. That numeric is called a tensor.
“You’d use a convolutional neural network to identify patterns that reveal what’s called edge detection or feature extraction, which is identifying patterns well enough to know, this is where the window ledge is, so we can more easily take the green-screen image out and replace it with something.
“That was familiar to me early on because, prior to Artists Equity, I had a small visual-effects company. I’ve worked with GPUs a lot too. The visual-effects guys said, ‘Hey, you should see. There are a couple: Google and this other company, OpenAI, are doing really interesting stuff with transformers in video.’
“I’ve learned that I can actually just call up and go, ‘Hey, it’s Ben Affleck. Can I come see what you’re doing?’ Sometimes people say yes, to my astonishment.”
$ANET Andy Bechtolsheim says AI has made optics demand about 10 times bigger in five years and the industry is only at the "very beginning"
"So I guess I don't need to tell you that AI has been driving this incredible increase in demand for high-speed optics, which is probably now 10 times bigger than it used to be five years ago..."
"And what I want to talk to you today is that we're not at the end of this journey, but rather the very beginning. There's easily another order of magnitude increase in bits needed for the next generation kind of data centers."
"So what I want to talk about first is what's happening at the data center level, and how we as an industry have to get together to solve these problems of this very rapid and high demand growth as fast as possible, since AI can't wait."
______
For full set of takeaways to Andy's AI Datacenter and Optics lecture: firesidealpha.substack.com/p…
AverageInvestor retweeted
The more interesting chart is USDT.D. There’s a fight between two parallel channels - one seeking collapse & the other support. Very hard to take a directional bet, but I think BTC remains range bound, increasing the possibility of a flush as more time passes before a move up.
AverageInvestor retweeted
Ran @typesafeai's Jev against an existing classifier eval that previously used Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite. It won both on quality (saturated the eval) and speed (6x)
AverageInvestor retweeted
Last month I wrote about how we can build a positive and safe future for everyone: meta.com/thefutureisforevery…
Every lab has the responsibility and incentive to move at the pace required to train its models safely, and the ability to take its own actions to ensure that happens.
The reality is:
- People won't want to use agents that are misaligned with them and that don't do what they ask, so labs have a strong natural incentive to make their models more aligned.
There is a lot of debate about slowing progress on capabilities until alignment catches up. My view is that trust and alignment are quickly becoming the most important capabilities that will differentiate agents and models. Any lab that doesn't focus on alignment will fall behind.
- Labs face significant liability if their models cause harm, so they have a strong incentive to prevent this as well.
Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security. We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us. I'm proud of the security foundations we've built.
- Engaging independent evaluators and advisors is industry best practice. MSL already does this today in several areas because it helps produce better work. Other labs can just do this too. In general, it would be helpful for there to be a larger and more diverse ecosystem of evaluators.
- Committing the significant majority of compute towards serving people rather than racing towards recursive self-improvement is one of the best ways to ensure we develop this technology safely. Meta has made this commitment and other labs can do this as well.
I believe the key to building a positive future for everyone is maintaining the right balance of power. This is within our power to do.
AverageInvestor retweeted
Allow me to interpret what’s happening.
Anthropic is being audited.
Anthropic desires to file an S-1, as they would like to go public. Therefore they need an audit. And by “they”, I mean the VC’s who invested in them. So “they” can exit their position and pass the bag to firemen, nurses, teachers and policemen.
How does this go from the VC’s to the working man and woman? Because the size of the IPO will automatically qualify Anthropic for the Fortune 500 and the Dow Jones 100. Therefore, every working person with a 401k or pension will end up owning a little bit of Anthropic in their mutual funds. Teachers hold the bag, VC’s take the cash. Thank you, come again.
Now back to the audit. The audit required is a PCAOB audit, Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. This audit is what all public companies must comply with be on the stock market. Revenue recognition, expense classification, depreciation, related party transactions, etc. It’s there for consumer protection.
This audit is TOUGH. It is INVASIVE. There is no way to lie your way through it. Any company that passes a PCAOB audit automatically earns my trust on finances.
How do I know? Because I’ve been through it before. @ChangRobotics is 2 year PCAOB audited and currently underway for a 3 year audit. It’s brutal. The same as showing up as the valedictorian to your high school graduation, except you’re naked, and you have to walk on stage and deliver the speech. It’s rough. And I know many incredible founders that can’t pass one.
Now, why would Anthropic be leaking all kind of weird statements lately about “self pacing” a slow down on AI (e.g. they are WAY behind on revenue), and profitable if they didn’t have expenses (e.g. we just learned for the first time what our expenses are, because we’re being audited).
Because they were claiming NVIDIA discounts and Microsoft cloud credits as revenue. Because they had no clue what their expenses were, or why it even mattered. Because they had unlimited investor capital and their job was to burn it to make an LLM. Well, they did a great job with that!
That’s the same as my wife coming home with Bed Bath and Beyond coupons and telling me it’s her paycheck. Ummm, not the same, sweetheart.
So by now hopefully you can see that Anthropic is in a PCAOB audit right now, in order to file an S-1 and go public, and pass the bag to teachers so the VC’s get profits. And hopefully that explains their “crazy” behavior.
In reality you can be grateful to KPMG, PWC, or whoever is auditing Anthropic, because it’s the first time Dario learned that:
1) we are not profitable
2) expenses matter
3) coupons are not revenue
4) we have no clue how to be “profitable”
5) growth is hard when revenue numbers are in an audit and not a power point
-your neighborhood engineer
