Retired doctor. Personal account, reflecting my own view. @demfromct.bsky.social
Newtown, CT
Joined January 2009
- Tweets528K
- Following2.4K
- Followers19.5K
- Likes83.2K
Greg Dworkin retweeted
The 2020 cycle was literally the hardest cycle in our lifetime to poll. Then polls went on to overcorrect somewhat and overstated Republicans.
Even the rightwing pollsters who got 2020 correct see South Carolina as toss up.
It's not the same thing here, folks.
Greg Dworkin retweeted
One thing that I found compelling about the South Carolina polls showing Darline Graham in a tight race: the governor number in both polls was what you'd expect for a R in SC in a bad year. Graham is lagging Wilson significantly. I wrote about it and much more in my column👇
Greg Dworkin retweeted
NC Early Voting: Share of Remaining Voters Who Voted Tuesday
🔵 DEM | 🔴 REP
4/4: 9.1% | 6.5%
3/4: 4.7% | 2.9%
2/4: 3.1% | 1.6%
1/4: 2.9% | 1.3%
0/4: 2.1% | 1.0%
These are the type of numbers that Democrats want to see and they keep coming. No reprieve for Republicans yet.
Greg Dworkin retweeted
The pollsters I talk with, who *know* Florida better than the @NYTimes, do not believe the Republican turnout advantage will be north of 12.
Some think +10 is more likely.
A few believe sub +10 is possible.
Greg Dworkin retweeted
The early voting blog is updated!
11 days into the two-week early in-person voting period, Dems now have a nearly 6 percent lead, or just under 30,000 ballots. The window is narrowing for some Republicans and may already have shut for some.
thenevadaindependent.com/art…
done!
PSA: this is a real poll
Polling GA was not cheap, we worked our butts off to get a good sample here. If you'd like to donate to help offset some of the costs, you can do so here!
statenavigate.org/donate/
Greg Dworkin retweeted
Polling GA was not cheap, we worked our butts off to get a good sample here. If you'd like to donate to help offset some of the costs, you can do so here!
statenavigate.org/donate/
🚨FINAL GEORGIA POLL🚨
Governor
🔵Keisha Lance Bottoms 50%
🔴Rick Jackson 47%
⚪️DK/DR 4%
Lieutenant Governor
🔵Josh McLaurin 49%
🔴Greg Dolezal 45%
⚪️DK/DR 6%
Attorney General
🔵Tanya Miller 49%
🔴Brian Strickland 45%
⚪️DK/DR 5%
Secretary of State
🔵Penny Brown Reynolds 49%
🔴Tim Fleming 45%
⚪️DK/DR 6%
State House Generic Ballot
🔵Democrats 51%
🔴Republicans 44%
⚪️DK/DR 5%
articles.statenavigate.com/g…
Greg Dworkin retweeted
👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀
🚨FINAL GEORGIA POLL🚨
Governor
🔵Keisha Lance Bottoms 50%
🔴Rick Jackson 47%
⚪️DK/DR 4%
Lieutenant Governor
🔵Josh McLaurin 49%
🔴Greg Dolezal 45%
⚪️DK/DR 6%
Attorney General
🔵Tanya Miller 49%
🔴Brian Strickland 45%
⚪️DK/DR 5%
Secretary of State
🔵Penny Brown Reynolds 49%
🔴Tim Fleming 45%
⚪️DK/DR 6%
State House Generic Ballot
🔵Democrats 51%
🔴Republicans 44%
⚪️DK/DR 5%
articles.statenavigate.com/g…
Greg Dworkin retweeted
There’s been much discourse on the Minnesota senate race but little public polling. NYT is 3rd nonpartisan pollster to test it this fall, & finds Flanagan up 54/40.
Other NYT Senate polls:
—South Carolina: 48/48
—Florida: Moody 50/44.
Also: Suffolk has Brown 47/44 in OH.
Greg Dworkin retweeted
6 years ago, statistical dead heat polls from Quinnipiac and CBS made Dems believe they could beat Lindsey Graham in SC-SEN. But the final NYT poll was Graham +6 and he won by 10.
Now it’s NYT showing a tie.
New @nytimes/@SienaResearch poll—>
SC Senate: 48% (Graham)- 48% (Andrews)
FL Senate: 50% (Moody)- 44% (Nixon)
Minn. Senate: 54% (Flanagan)- 40% (Tafoya)
nytimes.com/2026/10/28/upsho…
Greg Dworkin retweeted
NEW: We did a focus group of Biden-Collins voters. Very interesting stuff. They all vaguely respect her. They all think her time is up
thebulwark.com/p/former-coll…
Greg Dworkin retweeted
A reminder that you should be reading @RalstonReports blog. I hear the Nevada Independent is looking for donations too.
The early voting blog is updated!
Bleak for GOP: The Dems will have an almost 30K lead in NV, or 5.6 points when today's mail is counted. The Clark firewall will be at 45K or so, not seen since the heyday of The Reid Machine when Harry was alive.
thenevadaindependent.com/art…
Greg Dworkin retweeted
The bottom line: Being anti-Trump gets us through this year, but it is NOT a long-term governing strategy. Most voters aren't seeing one.
Some numbers that will be key for Democrats to remember in the aftermath of whatever happens next week:
3/4 of the vote was motivated by Trump, not the party.
Voters are no more likely to think Democrats have a governing plan than Republicans.
And while they think Rs make them worse off, similar #s of voters think Dems winning leaves them worse off vs. better off.
Greg Dworkin retweeted
With half an hour to go before EVing ends, im seeing Presidential level lines at the Archives Building (when the line wraps around outside the building, that's an hour wait)
