OTN Weather

How can any of you make any assumptions about the long range? Like all this talk on "A cooldown is coming but it'll be brief then it'll warm up again" Wow! Very creative! I mean that is so easy to say. The timeframe coming up that is bringing a shot of cold air with Winter weather chances was showing above average temperatures on the EPS last Saturday. Now we have the coldest air of the season on the way. Let's just keep things out in front of us. No reason to just pencil off huge timeframes way out of ahead of us. Like you got people saying December is toast... How do you know? You got a time machine?

Mid-month cold shot gaining traction on ensembles

Woah now... Don't threaten me with a good time! 🤩 Both the latest GFS and European Ensembles are suggesting the Polar Vortex is going to be doing exactly what a winter lover would want to see from it in early November! Big stretch towards North America! Will that pattern lock in?? If we can get these stretches to continue, Winter is going to be very exciting in the Eastern US. #winteriscoming #PolarVortex #wxtwitter #wxX

EPS at hour 306 for next weekend versus what it has now at hour 144. "Slam dunk" warmth turns into sneaky cold. I thought that couldn't happen in a strong El Niño?

NOAA came out with their winter forecast, no surprise with the result; so here's your annual reminder of their forecasts and what actually happened.

CFS paints a warm, mild December as there is no blocking over Greenland, as the NAO is in its positive phase. And there is troughing over Alaska. With the lack of robust ridging over the Pacific coast, warm, mild air will dominate the lower 48

Sink your teeth into this: The strength of the developing El Niño, combined with a persistently negative PDO and westerly QBO, has no direct modern precedent.