I might regret the timing of this, but we’ve got a whopping 5.1M votes in so it’s worth looking at where we’re at. Mathematically, “primaries of both parties” ought to favor Dems. In the 2026 primary, voters in that category split +24D. My repeated point of contention is that with record turnout in the 2026 D primary, the Rs are only sitting at a 207 vote defecit, and this is due to a heavy Dem mail-in return, while Rs now outpace Dems w/ IPEV. Furthermore, this is driven by 48.5% of the Dem electorate being 1 of 4 primary voters. In 2026, 40% of the Dem primary electorate were new voters. This does mean that we had significant amounts of the 2020 electorate who did not cast a ballot in 2026 (roughly 800k voters) but we can’t parse out where we might be seeing underperformance or even cannibalization of former non-primary voters.