National Conservative | Catholic | Eisenhower and Clarence Thomas Enjoyer | Not Andrew Jackson
Joined March 2022
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Real Political Data retweeted
I might regret the timing of this, but we’ve got a whopping 5.1M votes in so it’s worth looking at where we’re at.
Mathematically, “primaries of both parties” ought to favor Dems. In the 2026 primary, voters in that category split +24D.
My repeated point of contention is that with record turnout in the 2026 D primary, the Rs are only sitting at a 207 vote defecit, and this is due to a heavy Dem mail-in return, while Rs now outpace Dems w/ IPEV.
Furthermore, this is driven by 48.5% of the Dem electorate being 1 of 4 primary voters. In 2026, 40% of the Dem primary electorate were new voters. This does mean that we had significant amounts of the 2020 electorate who did not cast a ballot in 2026 (roughly 800k voters) but we can’t parse out where we might be seeing underperformance or even cannibalization of former non-primary voters.
Real Political Data retweeted
Rs have now trended to overtake early and mail voting in daily splits in Iowa.
What will be the next state to leave the panic room?
Real Political Data retweeted
You can save American lives.
Simply vote Republican.
Keep the FBI doing good work, and keep the border sealed.
Real Political Data retweeted
Voting for the more Moderate Republican and voting against the House Freedom Caucus Republican who objectively is to the right of the Moderate they voted for is "burning it down"?
Kinda sounds like they want the status quo.
Young Voters wanting to🔥 Burn It Down 🔥
I warned all of you.
Think twice before assuming in your models all those partisans are your votes. You'll assume wrong. amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B0HJRZ7JG…
Real Political Data retweeted
Tarrant County, Texas (Days 1 - 8)
🗳️ Ballots so far: 391,257
• In-person: 373,058
• Mail: 18,199
🔴 Republicans: 121,101 (31.0% of all ballots)
🔵 Democrats: 140,288 (35.9% of all ballots)
📊 Margin: D +19,187
R share of identified: 46.3%
Latest: R +1,894
Real Political Data retweeted
Last week, President Trump signed a bill creating America's 64th national park. That got me wondering: Which presidents do we have to thank for our parks?
Naturally, I plotted it out. Jimmy Carter signed the most into law of anyone (11), but Trump is first among Republicans (5).
Real Political Data retweeted
📊 TEXAS EARLY VOTE — DALLAS COUNTY, DAY 8
Oct 26, updated 3:59 PM CT
🗳️ 28,993 in-person votes reported.
Comparison benchmarks:
• 2026 Day 1: 77,855
• 2024 Day 8: ~53,900
📉 Possible Day 8 final turnout:
• 38K: −51.2% vs Day 1 | −29.5% vs 2024
• 40K: −48.6% | −25.8%
• 43K: −44.8% | −20.2%
• 46K: −40.9% | −14.7%
• 50K: −35.8% | −7.2%
Dallas was +1.4% ahead of 2024 cumulatively through Day 7.
At 40K today, that would flip to approximately −2.2% through Day 8.
The sharp drop from opening Monday suggests turnout was heavily front-loaded. Tomorrow's Day 9 vs Day 2 comparison will be especially interesting.
⚠️ Dallas reports check-ins in irregular batches. These are illustrative scenarios, not final results or candidate votes.
Real Political Data retweeted
Country over party.
Real Political Data retweeted
And it’s not just licking, It is Greene county another essential Trump county. Turnout is strong and it posted the highest Rep share so far today.
Ohio is just a garbage fire for Dems. I’d be shocked if Husted wins by less than 3
Real Political Data retweeted
Yeah as we expected it seems the urban areas update later in the day. Another 70k ballots have been counted, and it helped moved the votes from 65% Trump counties to 60% Trump counties.
Once again, and you would think we wouldn't have to do this, but this does not mean that voting today was R+28. The only thing you can 100% say is that the votes from today came from redder counties than yesterday, which MAY IMPLY that today's voting was redder than yesterday.
Real Political Data retweeted
Brown's PACs accepted MILLIONS of dollars from billionaire Reid Hoffman, the guy in black in this photo whos right next to Epstein.
Hoffman even went to Epstein's Island, years AFTER everyone knew he was a pedophile.
Leftists always accuse you of doing the stuff they do.
Real Political Data retweeted
Because young people are fickle and Trump realized very early that they wouldn't be a worthwhile vote to cater to for a midterm.
He won them when they were guaranteed to turn out (during a presidential race of epic proportions).
He then catered his entire Presidency to other demographics, and poor analysts screamed at him for doing this.
But the why was always obvious and it's manifesting now.
Young people don't vote in midterm elections.
Even if their preferences shift left, nobody needs to care because they wouldn't show up anyway.
Poor analysts claimed they'd vote left, but failed to realize that the Democrat party was competing with terminal cancer for likability per every poll over 2 years.
So why would low-propoensity voters decide to vote for an extremely disliked political party?
They wouldn't.
Instead, they are absence-maxxing.
Real Political Data retweeted
Members of the Philadelphia labor unions are door knocking on behalf of Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick and Frank Farry Saturday, ahead of Election Day Nov. 3.
Real Political Data retweeted
Ann Arbor, Michigan's first 3 in person voting weekdays: 272 voters per site per day vs. 391 in 2024, about 31% lower. I'm watching MI in person voting to test the redder mail story. Not apples-to-apples. But it's what we've got. This is an earlier MIDTERM opening: 2 campus sites vs. 6 citywide in 2024. No clear IP surge in this Dem stronghold yet.
Real Political Data retweeted
The largest Republican-led county in the country has seen very high Democratic turnout. The next several days will tell whether this reverses or signals a warning for November.
