$TSLA Investor. Work in Tech. Hiking, boating, Berners, anything outside. Twin. My opinions, not advice.
Lake Tahoe, NV
Joined February 2021
- Tweets9.7K
- Following5.4K
- Followers4.2K
- Likes111K
Julianna retweeted
Is this the most COSTLY POST of all time? Trillions erased.
Keep in Mind - THEY DON’T HAVE THE VOTES.
The President is still the President - and he will Veto any bill that hurts America. They can’t override a veto. And States must compete with other states - or lose jobs.
Trade the volatility, hedge or hold. But this is just a FAFO of what the effect of policies would be - that they can’t ENACT.
Julianna retweeted
Don’t get distracted from the fundamentals.
The fundamentals 👇
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas in new @SpaceX note:
“Just 4 months since our initiation, we’ve nearly doubled our 2027 revenue (to $175B) and EBIT estimates, while pulling forward FCF break-even by four years (to 2031) and cutting ~$280bn from our projected debt issuance. On fiscal year 2028, $SPCX trades cheaper than the S&P500. Interesting.
Our financial forecasts have improved significantly:
• Revenues: FY27 and FY28 revenues have been revised up 93% and 84% to $175B and $289B respectively.
• Operating Income: Our FY28 EBIT forecast has been revised up 72% to $119B.
• Free Cash Flow: At the time of our initiation, we had expected SPCX to be FCF negative until 2035. Today, we forecast the company to achieve positive FCF by 2031 - a 4 year pull-forward FCF break-even.
• Expected Borrowing: At initiation, we anticipated SPCX would raise a combined $670B of external funds (IG borrowing) through the 2035 time horizon. Today, we forecast a combined $390B of borrowing through 2031.
At our new 2028 earnings (adj.) of $109B and the current market cap of $1.91T ($140 a share), SPCX would trade at 17.6x P/E, cheaper than the S&P500 2028 forward P/E of 17.7x (MSe), while growing earnings at a ~150% CAGR from 2026-2030e.”
Julianna retweeted
Prepare for two years of political theater.
BUT grandstanding politicians cannot actually hurt Elon Musk or Tesla or SpaceX.
♦️The President is still the President. He controls the executive branch and has veto power (and pardon power).
♦️Texas is purple, and every Tesla and SpaceX project went through the normal local hearings and permitting processes. The permits were approved because the local residents and officials saw the economic advantage of the jobs.
♦️Markets will stabilize as they realize that this harms other companies more than Tesla and SpaceXSI - which always have a good relationship with local communities. The fundamentals have not changed. Tesla and SpaceXSI can operate independently of the grid if need be.
They will accelerate, not slow down.
🤖 Made with AI
SpaceX + Tesla
The sum is greater than the parts.
If SpaceX needs a merger because of Megapacks and Robots:
Why would Tesla Shareholders Want a Merger?
Chips + Capital + Growth.
6 minutes on WHY MERGER?
🎥 Clip @tslabeatpodcast @teslaownersSV @MatthewDR
Julianna retweeted
People ask what does SpaceX get out of a merger with Tesla. 👇
More than half of SpaceX’s revenue is from leasing SI compute. (Compute supported by hundreds of Tesla Megapacks). SpaceX plans to install another 10 GWs of compute next year. But Tesla Megapacks are almost sold out through 2027.
Therefore, A merger with Tesla has a classic justification - acquire needed technology that would take too long to replicate in house. Especially when it accelerates growth.
And the merger would have an immediate impact on the Bottom Line, placing SpaceX in first position for the New Megablocks from the Houston plant.
Other justifications exist too, like the need for Robots and autonomous vehicles to build a Moonbase. And the value of the JVs, and removing friction.
Julianna retweeted
I don't think people understand that this what SpaceX is competing against
Google's "Global Head of Energy and Power"
Don't get me wrong, Sergey and Larry are absolute geniuses who fully understand that compute is going to space, and Google has impressive early efforts here
But the hyperscalers are giant bloated bureaucracies filled with people who who moved up the corporate ladder due to political acumen rather than hardcore execution ability
This was fine in the old world... when atoms were subjugated by bits, and we left the hard parts of building to Asia
It's absolutely unacceptable in the new world... where atoms are king 👑
Over the last week I built a bottoms up SpaceX financial model through the end of 2028
The numbers that came out are insane
There are wide error bars given how quickly things are changing but I wanted to distill something complicated into something that can at least be debated
* This is not investment advice!!!
** Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder
*** Past performance is not indicative of future results
Julianna retweeted
SPACEXSI: Profit Juggernaut
Leasing SI supercompute turned into a lucrative business for SpaceXSI. XSI is over half of SpaceXSI’s revenues.
SpaceX isn’t slowing down building out more compute. Some call the revenue “shaky”. I think they are just repeating a talking point with little basis.
Let’s examine some facts:
1) If not SpaceXSI, WHO???
Who else is building SI super-compute with cutting edge Nvidia machines as quickly? Or even - at all. Competitors in-flight projects have faced delays, permitting issues and bottom-line many deals signed for compute won’t materialize.
2) Competitors MUST lease.
Anthropic Owns Zero Compute. OpenAI has a few JVs. Neither can meet expanded demand without compute. Google does have its own compute - but isn’t building as fast as SpaceXSI and is also leasing.
3) SI is Early, and Growing Fast. Estimates are less than 1% pay for SI. And the majority of the world isn’t yet using it. The need for training compute will grow first, then inference compute will grow exponentially behind it as more start to query the models.
4) SpaceX can repurpose compute.
Scaling products like Grok Bot (fastest growth Elon Musk has seen with 800,000 plus users in weeks) and Macrohard.
SpaceXSI can charge less for tokens as the builder of the compute and generate similar profits to an Anthropic while grabbing market share.
5) Anthropic somehow disappears?
It’s not a zero % probability. But the need for SI won’t disappear. Competitors will step onto the gap. Either xSI, or Competitors without compute - that also need to lease from SpaceXSI.
In short, competitors are paying for the buildout of the compute SpaceXSI can one day use itself, if it chooses.
Therefore SpaceXSI will maintain pricing power and can deploy their compute assets in whatever combination generates maximum profit over time. They also have an enviable timeframe of return on capital invested.
Next - Key constraints that effect others don’t effect SpaceXSI in the same way, like electricity and capital. $SPCX
Macroharder and Minihard both have 220k GB300s with 800 gig nics configured for training. Gun Range will have the same. Spam (used to house Hormel products) will have ~200k GB300s, but configured for inference, so much simpler networking and less than half the fiber.
I walked the whole Colossus 2 site around midnight and again this morning.
Good progress by the SpaceX team and contractors. Gun Range is tracking to be operational by end of November and Spam in December.
Julianna retweeted
Help South Koreans change their tax law in advance of a Tesla/SpaceX merger.
♦️Let’s shine an international spotlight on this issue. Repost in every country that has Tesla and SpaceX shareholders.
♦️ The forced 22% capital gains tax on « change of control » hurts small shareholders the most and is therefore a regressive tax. It dramatically diminishes their savings.
♦️South Koreans have a real shot - the petition is with the National Assembly. It has 41% of the signatures required before 11/21 (20K+ of 50k).
Petition:
petitions.assembly.go.kr/pro…
다행히 청원 동의 증가 속도가 더 나네요
많이들 퍼날라주신 덕분인듯 합니다
X 외의 커뮤니티에도 적극 전파합시다
petitions.assembly.go.kr/pro…
Julianna retweeted
This is the most insane demo I’ve seen. Subvocal YC F26 lets you speak completely silently and reads the minute movements of your face. So you can talk to your AI anytime.
AI + sensors is magic.
What’s crazier is they built this in 4 months. This demo was live yesterday evening at the YC office.
We’ve raised $1.3M from YC & Afore Capital so you never have to type or speak again.
Typing is slow. Talking into your computer is awkward. Subvocal fixes both
Our glasses give you the speed of speech without you making a sound or touching a keyboard.
It tracks your internal speech muscles with non-contact sensing and decodes silent, almost invisible mouthing into text at more than 200 words/min.
Pre-orders are now live at:
subvocal.co/preorder?utm_sou…
Julianna retweeted
Over the last week I built a bottoms up SpaceX financial model through the end of 2028
The numbers that came out are insane
There are wide error bars given how quickly things are changing but I wanted to distill something complicated into something that can at least be debated
* This is not investment advice!!!
** Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder
*** Past performance is not indicative of future results
Julianna retweeted
History won’t judge Binance by its worst day — it will judge by how they responded.
So far: disclosed the hack right away, worked with partners to freeze ~$3B on-chain, already had the SAFU reserve, and set aside over $6.34B of company funds (with $5B already in the exact tokens taken) so customers are fully covered.
I imagine the whole Binance team feels exactly like the SpaceX team after a RUD — heads down, grinding through the mess, and focused on getting back up.
@cz_binance and @heyibinance , you’re handling a complex hack with grace.
Julianna retweeted
Tesla Comes to Vietnam, TSLA Tops $400 & Starship Flight 15 Nears: Tesla Beat #167 w/ @sjvtesla @futureaza @matthewdr Special Guest @amy787 xitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1aKbdEjyv…
Julianna retweeted
I joined the Tesla Beat to talk about the possible $TSLA / $SPCX merger and the Shareholder Letter to the Board. With @teslaownersSV @SjvTesla @MatthewDR @FutureAZA
Tesla Comes to Vietnam, TSLA Tops $400 & Starship Flight 15 Nears: Tesla Beat #167 w/ @sjvtesla @futureaza @matthewdr Special Guest @amy787 xitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1aKbdEjyv…
Julianna retweeted
What's New in Grok Bot
00:00 🎃
00:13 Pages in Grok Bot
01:09 Vault
02:05 1Password
02:21 Apple integrations
03:21 Bot makes videos
03:47 New bot characters
04:13 X Spaces
04:31 Font fun
04:54 Design polish
05:11 Rapid fire
Julianna retweeted
Many in the US are unaware, but Koreans potentially face a 22% capital gains tax on a merger. Help this petition pick up steam. Repost….
청원 동의 속도가 다시 살아났어요. 🔥 @Rocketesla_KR 님 감사합니다!
이 기세 그대로, 각자 1일1회 포스팅 부탁드려요. 🙏
📖 해외주식의 조직재편(합병·주식교환 등)에 대한 양도소득세 과세이연 제도 도입에 관한 청원
👉 petitions.assembly.go.kr/pro…
🔎 링크 오류 시: 청원 사이트 검색창에 「과세이연」
📌 9,199 / 50,000 (18.4%)
📌 청원 종료까지 25일 남음
[추세 분석]
- 하루 동안 2,410명 늘었어요. 직전 하루(986명)의 2.4배로 속도가 다시 살아났어요.
- 마감까지 필요한 하루 평균(약 1,590명)보다 앞서고, 목표선보다도 1,613명 앞서 있어요.
- 속도 회복과 같은 시기에 @Rocketesla_KR 님이 청원 글을 연달아 올렸어요(대표 글 조회 2.9만·리포스트 120·좋아요 410).
첨부: 동의 수 추이 차트
널리 알려주세요! 🙏🙏
@Rocketesla_KR
@digitrio
@HS_academy23
@Tslachan
@ohmahahm
@LayeredInvest
@jsh3pump_
@TeslaZoa
@TSLA_Bitcoin
@mynameisdjkim
@HoneyJamTesla
@Hanteta_
@Banbo_Insight
@brianchoi_tesla
Julianna retweeted
What you did these past 2.5 days is heroic.
Ask Grok for results on any petition,
leave alone shareholder petitions,
leave alone retail shareholder petitions.
We already had records for all these categories, and we just smashed that ceiling.
Thank you. And thank you @Amy787
🤖 Made with AI
Julianna retweeted
BREAKING: Anthropic to spend up to $120.5 billion on compute from SpaceXSI.
Anthropic’s S-1 filing reveals:
• Approximately $3.1 billion in combined monthly payments once all capacity is delivered, equivalent to roughly $37.2 billion annualized.
• Full capacity delivery expected in December 2026, with different fees during the ramp-up.
• Initial non-cancellable periods end in January 2027 and March 2027, depending on the agreement.
• Afterwards, either party can cancel with 90 days’ advance written notice.
• Agreements for NVIDIA GPU compute entered into and amended between May and October 2026, with terms extending into 2029.
The $120.5 billion represents potential aggregate spending, subject to those cancellation rights.
Julianna retweeted
SpaceXSI’s ambitious SI super-compute buildout:
Elon Musk moves to the Next Biggest Pain Point. Note three of the key constraints being Solved:
♦️ POWER - SpaceX will be casting gas turbine blades
♦️COOLING - Stealth Innovations made to power & heat dissipation, but NOT disclosed specifically so competitors can’t copy.
♦️CAPITAL - Elon Musk noted debt funding is closing shut - to businesses WITHOUT other substantial revenue (SpaceXSI DOES have other revenue sources like Launch; and Starlink). SpaceXSI is profitably monetizing the compute as fast as they build it - and secured 40 Billion callable debt.
兩個月前我們才出報告說馬斯克打算自製渦輪葉片來解決天然氣發電缺渦輪發電機的問題，上週SpaceXSI 就把 2027年底GW算力從5-10G，一口氣加到13GW，甚至不排除有20GW的電力儲備，並且強調已解決電力及散熱問題但不能跟大家說怎麼做的，因為其他公司會偷學，雖然我們目前仍無法確定SpaceXSI這10G的算力增量的4000-5000億美元資本開支從何而來（我們估計營運現金流入僅有不到2000億美元，缺了3000億美元以上，最近400億美元現金增資明顯不足），但至少看得出馬斯克靠著其美國火箭製造的卓越工程能力，讓其AI數據算力中心的擴充速度明顯優於大多數的新興外溢雲 Neocloud，甚至一些雲巨頭。這週商業週刊也專題討論馬斯克自製渦輪葉片及受惠台灣產業鏈。
andrewhclu.substack.com/p/sp…
TSLA shareholder voices matter! ⬇️
TESLA/SPACEXSI
The Special Committees have already been formed. But some don’t understand the ramifications.
♦️Some say the Special Committee has been formed, so do nothing.
BUT The Special Committee represents us shareholders. They can guess what we think, OR we could just tell them. Thousands of shareholders chose the latter and signed the Letter to ask for expeditious action. Inaction was costly to Tesla in losing out on xAI, we don’t want that to happen again.
♦️Some assume a deal is a given.
Elon Musk specifically said it is not a given on the SpaceX earnings call.
♦️Some debate timing.
It is NOW - or NEVER. The special committee was already formed. That ship SAILED. There won’t be special committees again. Failed merger attempts are just that, failed.
♦️Some ask us to dictate terms.
Even Elon Musk had to let the normal process work - and can’t dictate terms or timing or share exchange ratios. And he founded both companies. We can’t either. But we can, and did, ask that the ATH, and internal growth & revenue targets for Optimus & CyberCab be considered.
♦️Some say operate separately.
BUT The Joint Ventures aren’t meant to be permanent. They are pure bureaucracy, friction and liability. They were a framework that achieved a headstart on what talented engineers from both companies can do together. They are now the unnecessary part to be deleted. Elon Musk doesn’t need to work at all. His time should not be spent in conflict committees.
♦️Some say do nothing.
See again: You could let the Board guess, or you could just tell them shareholders are in favor.
50% + 1 of outstanding shareholders is an almost IMPOSSIBLY high bar. Broker non-votes count as NO. Many foreign investors can’t vote. The deal terms HAVE to be extremely compelling to turn undecided investors and institutions into YES VOTES. The Special Committee, and M&A Bankers/Lawyers have a fiduciary duty to gain the best terms they can.
A letter doesn’t change a share exchange ratio. A letter says that shareholders will mobilize - in the face of an compelling deal -to get over 50% outstanding shares voting in favor and get the deal over the line.
🔥🔥🔥
Tesla + SpaceX - the time to merge is now!
TSLA SHAREHOLDERS ARE # 14!!!
We did it!!! Great work everyone!!
The Tesla Retail letter in support of a $TSLA/$SPCX merger now represents over $10.2 BILLION dollars in Tesla shares - to put it into context, that is more shares than Baron Capital, Citigroup and ARK Invest COMBINED.
Kalshi betters may want to revisit the merger odds.
The Numbers - in just 2+ Days:
♦️ 25,710,618 shares
♦️ $10.2 billion in Tesla stock
♦️ 9,697 signers
Tesla and SpaceX don't just share a CEO; they share shareholders. 76% of signers (7,406) own both TSLA and SPCX, holding 19,774,447 shares.
The closest thing to this historic mobilization was ALSO Tesla retail: our 2024 letter (representing $4B of TSLA) supporting Elon Musk's incentive package & move out of Delaware. Neither would have been possible without the stellar skills of @TeslaBoomerMama.
Thousands of shareholders think Tesla and SpaceX are stronger together, and they back Tesla, the Special Committee, and Elon Musk.
@Tesla @elonmusk @robyndenholm @KathleeWT @IraEhrenpreis @jgebbia @kimbal
@SpaceX @Gwynne_Shotwell @AntonioGracias @d0nharrison @FutureJurvetson @rglein @roelofbotha
