Entrepreneur | Trader & Investor | Not Financial Advice
Oxford, England
Joined December 2017
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Cuma Cevik retweeted
We are leaving the historically worst six months and the next six months are the historically best for the S&P 500.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Hedge funds just hit the panic button harder than at any time in the last ten years. Here is why that is good news for you.
Morgan Stanley tracks the total money its hedge fund clients have bet on stocks. When that total drops sharply, it means funds are being forced to cut positions, usually because their losses hit a limit. In the last 2 days, it fell 7.8%, a bigger unwind than the Covid crash, the GameStop squeeze, or the 2016 and 2018 selloffs.
Every time this number fell past 6% (2016, 2018 twice, 2020, 2021, 2025), the S&P 500 bottomed within a week or two and was higher one, three and six months later. Six out of six.
The reason is simple. Once the forced sellers have sold, there is nobody left to push prices down. Those same funds then have to buy back in, and that buying has powered every rebound in the table.
As for me, I am looking for great businesses that got dumped for no reason. That is where the bargains are.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
And somehow, the numbers get even crazier.
1,400 US stocks are trading 60% or more below their 52-week highs.
But here's the one that really blew my mind.
2,600 stocks are down 70% or more from their ALL-TIME HIGHS. 🤯
Think about that for a second.
A brutal bear market happening underneath the surface.
WOW.
You're about to be blown away by this.
2,800 US stocks are currently trading 30% or more below their 52-week highs.
Yes, you read that correctly. 2,800 stocks.
But here's the part that really gets me.
That's roughly HALF of the US stocks in this group already down 30% or more.
And people wonder why their portfolios look nothing like the major indices.
There's a massive bear market happening underneath the surface.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Guidance (Rehberlik) nedir ve Neden önemlidir?
Rehberlik, şirketin bilanço açıklarken önümüzdeki dönem için verdiği satış ve kâr tahminidir. Bilanço geçmişi gösterir, rehberlik ise geleceği.
Borsa geçmişi değil, geleceği fiyatlar. Bu yüzden bazen iyi bilanço gelir ama hisse düşer, çünkü şirket önünü kötü görüyordur.
Nasıl okunur:
Guidance Artırımı (Raise): Şirket işlerin beklenenden daha iyi gideceğini söyler. Fiyatı yukarı sürer.
Guidance Düşürülmesi (Cut/Lower): Şirket işlerin yavaşlayacağını itiraf eder. Piyasa anında ceza keser.
Guidance İptali (Withdraw): En kötüsüdür. "Önümüzü göremiyoruz" demektir, panik satışı getirir.
Pratik Örnek (INTC vs. MPWR):
🔴 Kötü Örnek (Intel - $INTC): Son bilançosunda ileriye dönük beklentilerini (rehberliğini) sert şekilde aşağı çekti ve temettüyü durdurdu. Piyasa, geçmiş bilançodan ziyade bu "gelecek karanlık" mesajını fiyatladı ve hisseye tek günde %29 satış yedi.
🟢 İyi Örnek ($MPWR ): Bilanço beklentileri aşmakla kalmadı, yönetim bir sonraki çeyrek için büyüme hedefini ve Yapay Zeka segmenti rehberliğini (%130'dan %150'ye) yükseltti. Genel piyasa koşulları kötü olsa bile, yatırımcı bu "gelecekte daha çok kazanacağız" vaadine güvendiği için hisse %4 artıda seyrediyor.
Dünyanın en iyi kârını açıklamış olsanız bile, eğer rehberliğiniz zayıfsa o hisse düşer. Kurumsal yatırımcılar modellerini (F/K, PEG vb.) geçmiş çeyreğe göre değil, şirketin verdiği bu "Guidance" rakamlarına göre güncellerler.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Oh no. Bad news for the memory bulls. SK Hynix only made $62 billion dollars of profit in one quarter. For perspective, that’s about 7 years worth of Tesla profits. Or 15 years worth of PLTRs current yearly profits. Or 6 years of AMDs current yearly profits. All in one quarter. Not one year, one quarter. But it really doesn’t matter, because memory is cyclical. And cyclical money is like Monopoly money. All of these really really smart people on X taught me that cyclical money doesn’t count. The memory bears are going to teach those memory bulls a lesson. The cyclical guys are so smart. They know what’s best. $60 billion dollars of profit in one quarter doesn’t matter when it’s from selling memory stuff that is sooooooo cyclical. Oh, and BTW, SK said their HBM will be sold out until 2030. It may be longer, but they can’t see out past that. But don’t worry, memory is so cyclical that I’m sure it will peak soon. I’m so happy I follow so many smart guys that taught me about the cyclicality of memory. Good thing they were all predicting memory stocks to crash. Even the really smart guys with those charts and squiggly lines. They knew it. I can’t wait to see MU at $600 a share soon like they predict. And DRAM at $25 a share. lol. 🤡
Fuckin cyclical clowns out there. When will they figure out that this time really is different? Ai never existed during the past cycles. So, by definition, it is different. That’s ok. I hope they figure it out when MU passes $5000 a share. lol.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
NASDAQ Composite trailing PE:
- March 2000 (dot-com peak): ~190x
- October 2026: ~28x
The multiple back then was roughly 6 times higher.
Do NOT compare today with the dot-com bubble.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
US stocks tend to rally following Midterm elections:
The S&P 500 has returned +17.2% on average in the year following Midterm elections since 1950, the strongest return of any year in the Presidential cycle.
The index has finished higher in 17 of the 19 post-Midterm years during this period.
This is also nearly quadruple the +4.6% average return recorded during midterm years, when the index finished higher in 11 of 19 years.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has returned +8.1% on average in Year 4 of the Presidential cycle, or during Presidential election years, ending higher in 16 of 19 years.
In Q4 of Midterm years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of +6.6% since 1950, the strongest quarterly return of the Presidential cycle.
History suggests US equities will extend their rally after Midterm elections.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
The only way $SPCX gets to 10 GW of capacity this year is if Elon spreads fear like this.
He talks about infinite demand and throws out pie-in-the-sky 13-20 GW of operational compute next year.
They'll have a lot, but the only way they can get those numbers is to try and buy up capacity from Neoclouds that are struggling to become operational on the cheap.
That's the real reason he's spreading this fear.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Chart of the year
Semiconductor earnings are up 176% year-over-year, yet the industry's P/E has collapsed to just 14.2. The market doesn't believe its own profit forecasts.
🔒 Members-Only
quicktak.es/3vjb
Cuma Cevik retweeted
so we are in a huge ai bubble that everyone knows about, that everyone keeps warning everyone else about, which makes investors increasingly scared that we're in a bubble, which means everyone is being cautious about investing in the bubble, because everyone knows it's a bubble, which somehow makes it the biggest bubble in history, despite everyone being fully aware that it's a bubble and constantly reminding everyone else that we're in a bubble.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
This is crazy.
Short sales have outpaced long buying by a staggering 5:1 month-to-date, pushing short leverage close to five-year highs.
We have 44% of all earnings next week including loads of tech companies.
If the Nasdaq can hold the range into earnings and we see some surprises, that's a monster amount of fuel for a squeeze.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
This is the worst environment to invest in.
The KOSPI gets wiped out every night because everyone is leveraged.
Trump bombs Iran out of nowhere every other day.
Headlines move the whole market before you can react.
We are lucky that every company is putting up record earnings. The AI trade is real, and that is what’s keeping this market alive.
Terrible backdrop, great earnings. Stay patient and don't overtrade.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
If you’re a memory investor, you’ve got to read this report!!
Micron just held its tech webinar today and one line should stop every memory bear in their tracks…Micron expects the shortage to last at least two more years and it can't see when supply and demand will balance.
The reason is that every wave of AI eats more memory than the last. Training took HBM per GPU up 3.6x from H100 to B300. Inference doubled memory per server in three years. AI agents are growing context about 30x a year. And robotaxis will need 10x+ the DRAM of today's cars.
The roadmap micron showed earlier is built for it. 1-delta DRAM ramps in 2H27 with ~25% better density. G11 NAND crosses 400 layers in 2027 at ~2x G9's density. And by 2028, vHBM stacks memory directly on top of the processor, the shortest path to compute that exists.
We know Samsung and CXMT push 4F2, Micron says it's a dead end and is going straight to 3D DRAM. If they're right, their rivals are spending billions down the wrong road. We think they're right. Overweight $MU…
