AI, semiconductor & quantum research for investors Intel | Foundry | Memory | Advanced Packaging Founder, Roaring Fork Research
Ohio
Joined October 2024
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Steven Martin retweeted
🚨 JENSEN HUANG HAS RESIGNED AS $NVDA CEO, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY 🤯
After 33 years, he's out as President, CEO and board member 👋
CFO Colette Kress steps in as interim CEO and stays CFO while the board searches inside and outside for a permanent pick 🔎
Harvey Jones, former Synopsys CEO, becomes NVIDIA's first ever Chair 🪑
The stock is down 10.5% premarket at 155.43 vs yesterday's 173.73 close 📉
Earnings still land Nov 17 after the close, now with an interim CEO on the call 📅
My take: cautious, because the founder who sold the AI story is gone and the board still has an open investigation and an FBI probe hanging over it. What changes my mind is a strong Nov 17 report with guidance intact and a clear plan for the permanent CEO
Is NVIDIA bigger than Jensen, or was Jensen the moat? 👇
Steven Martin retweeted
Q3季度很多机构加仓买入了INTC
𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗖 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁
November 11, 2026
𝗠𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱
It was a good day for Intel. Shares rose 7.5% to $62.50 at the close as the broader AI and chip trade rebounded after CoreWeave’s strong results and higher outlook.
The stock gave back part of the gain after hours.
$INTC really needs about a week of this kind of gains but its a start. Intel still has to turn strong server demand into shipments and protect margins. The foundry is cutting loses every quarter. This time it was over $200 million. That will add up very fast.
Sources: CoreWeave Q3 release, Nov. 10; Intel Q3 release, Oct. 29.
Steven Martin retweeted
🚨 FUTURE LEADER RADAR | NOVEMBER 11, 2026
THE THEMES HAVE THE BETTER EVIDENCE. THE STOCKS ARE STILL TRYING TO CATCH UP.
The Market Strength Radar is finding a growing pool of stocks that have not fully participated in the strength of their supporting themes.
Some have constructive price structures. Others are still repairing.
But the central problem remains the same.
A strong theme does not automatically create a strong stock.
Healthcare and biotech are showing constructive supporting relative strength. Software has positive medium term evidence but weaker recent momentum. Technology remains under pressure.
That means I cannot treat every potential catch up candidate equally.
📊 WHAT THE FULL WATCHLIST IS SHOWING
193 source entries across 191 unique stocks.
Yesterday's review contained 189 unique stocks.
The largest concentrations:
🟢 $IGV: 26 software stocks
🔵 $XBI: 25 biotech stocks
🟢 $XLV: 25 healthcare stocks
🔵 $XLK: 24 technology stocks
These four groups contain 100 of the 191 unique stocks, approximately 52%.
The future participation pool remains concentrated in a few major areas.
And the two additional unique stocks do not prove that market participation is improving.
Some stocks may be entering this category because they are falling behind their themes, not because their charts are improving.
🔎 THE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE
$LLY has a strong uptrend, but its current location is stretched.
$IDXX is still repairing and is also stretched.
Both have supportive healthcare theme evidence.
But neither automatically offers a clean current entry.
The theme is one part of the equation.
The stock's own relative strength and price structure still need validation.
🎯 MY FOCUSED FUTURE LEADER RADAR
The experimental V3.1 selection contains 30 stocks for manual chart review.
🟢 10 Best Positioned to Catch Up
🔵 20 Close to Catch Up Confirmation
🟡 0 Early Catch Up Candidates
Ten have strong uptrends, but sixteen still have repairing chart structures.
Seven are stretched.
The focused list has improved slightly since yesterday, but it is far from uniform technical confirmation.
All 30 remain under conditional broader market conditions.
📋 TRADINGVIEW WATCHLIST
30 unique stocks from the larger 191-stock universe.
Original experimental V3.1 selection order preserved.
TradingView copy and paste:
NYSE:BB,NYSE:EOG,NASDAQ:UTHR,NASDAQ:PRME,NASDAQ:CLOV,NYSE:JNJ,NASDAQ:GLBE,NASDAQ:KARO,NYSE:UNH,TSE:4417,NASDAQ:VRSK,NASDAQ:BSY,NYSE:LLY,TSE:KXS,BME:AMS,NASDAQ:OLED,TSE:AIF,NYSE:ABT,NASDAQ:IDXX,NASDAQ:ADSK,NASDAQ:TTAN,NYSE:KVYO,NYSE:BAM,NYSE:AON,NYSE:ZTS,NASDAQ:ISRG,NASDAQ:CLBT,NASDAQ:INTU,NASDAQ:ATGL,NASDAQ:INVE
📌 MY CURRENT READ
The future participation pool is large.
Several supporting themes have established constructive relative strength.
But individual stock confirmation is still inconsistent.
I am interested in stocks that begin matching the performance of their themes while establishing healthier price structures.
I am not assuming that every lagging stock will eventually catch up.
This is a relative strength screening system, not a buy list.
My market journal, not financial advice.
🤖 Made with AI
Steven Martin retweeted
🚨BREAKING: 🟢 $RKLB 📈📈📈
The Pentagon has issued a $150 million conditional loan commitment to Rocket Lab USA, Inc. to accelerate the production, infrastructure scaling, and launch frequency of its upcoming medium-lift Neutron rocket.
Steven Martin retweeted
米上院がAIデータセンター・電力インフラの建設加速へ――超党派法案が示す米国の電力政策転換と$KEELへの追い風
shinnisa.hatenablog.com/entr…
Steven Martin retweeted
👟 $ONON reports tomorrow before the open, and beating hasn't been enough 😅
From the close before each of its last 4 reports to the close after:
🟢 Nov 2025: up 18.0%
🔴 Mar 2026: down 6.1%
🔴 May 2026: down 0.6%
🔴 Aug 2026: down 20.3%
4 EPS beats. Only 1 green day.
Consensus for tomorrow: EPS of CHF 0.40 on revenue of about CHF 931M, up about 17% from a year ago.
It lands the same morning as the CPI print, and the stock is still 41% below its Jan 2025 record 📉
Does the beat finally get rewarded, or is the outlook the only number that matters? 👇
Steven Martin retweeted
It's here the Monday Circle!!!!
Top 5
1.@mykebisonk8
2.@SFCWrench
3.@Jcruuuz31
4.@HopefullySC
5.@fakeblacky
Honorable mention for my Xer's @ColdMorningGrit and @WagnerKenn47300
Bison has come on strong and not letting go of that top spot. That his 2nd circle in a row at the top spot.
Steven Martin retweeted
Epictetus was a slave. His master snapped his leg for sport. He didn't flinch.
He was freer than the Emperor.
I wrote a manifesto on building a stoic mind. I’m DMing it to the few who want out of the cage.
RT this
Follow
Comment "Stoic"
Steven Martin retweeted
$IREN 11/5 실적 발표 퀵 세미 분석
1. Horizon 2~4 : “고객 요청에 따른” 지연
· 기존 2026년 말 인도 목표에서 2027년 1월로 변경
· 고객 요청에 따른 설계 변경 및 공급업체 일정 영향
· 최대 2027년 2월까지 지연 가능성 존재
2. AI Cloud 매출 : BULLISH ✅
· 분기 매출 $200M, 전분기 대비 +182%
· 전체 매출 $228M 중 AI Cloud 비중 87.7%
· 운영 ARR $1B 달성, 계약 ARR $4B 이상 확보
3. 신규 계약 및 단가 : BULLISH ✅
· 신규 5년 계약 IT MW당 연매출 $22M
· 단기 계약 IT MW당 연매출 $40M
· 특히 5년 계약에서 GPU CAPEX의 90%를 고객 선급금으로 충당하는 구조
4. CAPEX 및 자금조달 : BULLISH ✅
· $4B 이상 ARR 달성에 필요한 자금은 확보했다고 발표
· FY27 잔여 CAPEX 약 $15B
· $9B는 현금,약정 금융,선급금으로 충당, 나머지 $6B는 추가 조달 목표
5. 2027년 800MW : BULLISH ✅
· 2027년 말 800MW 목표 유지
· Horizon 2~4는 건설 마무리 단계로 진입
· Sweetwater 1과 Mackenzie에서도 개발 진전 확인
6. 사업 수익성 : (이번이 마지막 손손실이겠지?)
· AI Cloud 매출총이익률 86% 유지
· 조정 EBITDA $66M 기록
· 순손실 $263M으로 회계상 적자 지속
· 높은 사업 마진이 실제 현금흐름으로 이어지는지 확인 필요
7. 장기 성장 기반 : (도대체 얼마나 커지려고..?)
· 확보 전력 5GW 이상 유지
· 잠재 개발 파이프라인 35GW 이상으로 확대
· Mirantis 기반 AI Cloud 플랫폼 고도화 진행
· 단, 35GW는 아직 확보된 전력이 아닌 초기 개발 기회
개인적인 총평
H 2-4 일정된건 너무 아쉽구요 그래도 아직 명확하진 않지만 고객사의 이슈일 가능성이 커보입니다
신규 계약 단가가 너무나도 만족스러움
5년에 22M , 단기는 40M 이면 진짜 미쳤고
GPU CAPEX 90% 선급금 구조는 진짜 향후 자금조달 이슈를 잠재울만하고
27년 목표도 유지하였네요
아직 장기투자 근거가 유효하다 생각합니다
Steven Martin retweeted
500💵 monday is going to the winner of this poll.
🔁 Reposts appreciated to expand the vote count!
50%MU
50%ASML
0%V/MA
8 votes • Final results
Steven Martin retweeted
Wanted give a huge shout out to all these people, there some og’s in here and some new members to the community but they are all great accounts to follow and I really appreciate all the support!
@Alphacoreinvest
@Momo_Douk45
@linbo_tang
@AdamInvestss
@Gandalfthegrn
@mammetgzla
@Raj_Invests
@OptionEdgeHQ
@njcAllocates
@maxwilliamson__
@CJBuildsStore
@TangoTurtleA
@benmesika
@Colosteve2000
@BacklogAlpha
@DumbBullCapital
@TheIncomeLever
@worstgeneD
@loveleesfinance
@Compound_Kid_
@mrxmsa
@ChAsEdxPaPeR
@VulcanMK5
@HappyCanada2
Steven Martin retweeted
𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗤 𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗿𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁
𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
𝗠𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱
IonQ reports Q3 after the close today. Investors want evidence that quantum revenue is growing on its own while the company adds acquired businesses and issues more shares. In my opinion the company is still in pre revenue status or just out of it. I think there will be continued volatility as $IONQ ramps up their revenue.
IONQ closed Wednesday at $29.54, down 1.5%, even as the broad market rallied.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆
Q2 revenue was $80.1 million, up 287% year over year. The current FY 2026 outlook is $450 million to $460 million, including SkyWater from July 31 through year end and after intercompany eliminations.
That consolidated figure does not show how quickly IonQ’s quantum business is growing organically.
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was a $120.3 million loss. The $1.87 billion GAAP net loss included a $1.65 billion loss from the change in fair value of warrant liabilities.
That accounting item was responsible most of the reported net loss, but the operating loss still matters.
At $29.54, I estimate equity value at roughly $14.2 billion to $14.6 billion. This uses about 429 million basic shares, adds the 29.5 million pre funded warrant shares, and estimates 23 million to 35 million Elisity shares using the deal’s $33.07 to $49.61 price collar. It excludes other potential dilution. This is an estimate as I can’t calculate a reliable current enterprise value until IonQ reports cash and debt after the October financing and Q3 spending.
𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗱𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀
IonQ completed the Elisity acquisition Wednesday, issuing $1.15 billion in stock. Elisity brings more than 100 enterprise deployments, but its revenue contribution is still unknown. Sellers may receive up to another $150 million in stock if revenue milestones are met through January 2028. The customer base is real and growing they just have to build revenue and profit now.
IonQ also announced that QuantumCT will buy more than 150 hours of cloud runtime. The contract value was not disclosed, so I view it as evidence of access and use.
The October financing raised about $2 billion gross through 20.5 million common shares and 29.5 million pre funded warrants. It also included 100 million warrants exercisable at $69.46. The cash strengthens IonQ’s position while the securities add potential dilution.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜’𝗺 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴
IonQ reports after the close, followed by a 4:30 PM ET call. I want to see revenue and the updated outlook, and a detailed account of organic quantum growth.
PASS: IonQ maintains or raises its FY outlook and gives measurable evidence of organic quantum growth.
MISS: IonQ cuts the outlook or gives no clear way to separate acquired revenue from organic progress.
𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀
IonQ Q2 results, August 5
IonQ FY outlook, September 8
IonQ Elisity agreement and financing filings, October 9 and 16
IonQ earnings notice, October 22
IonQ Elisity and QuantumCT releases, November 4
StockAnalysis and ChartExchange, November 4
Steven Martin retweeted
Data centers got crushed last night with voters. There is a shift from not wanting them where they live to not wanting new ones being built in the United States.
People in Ohio rejected them all over the state.
Data center projects have been moving to other towns, but now other states are being considered because of this pushback.
Texas which is a massive growth market for these is pulling back on approving more. And this is a problem because around 27% of the planned data center capacity is supposed to go there.
This could slow the AI buildout and put pressure on AI companies. Neoclouds are getting hit this morning.
Steven Martin retweeted
More pressure on $IREN after yesterday’s Texas governor election. The new governor campaigned on pausing new data centers. Most of IREN’s 2027 expansion is in Texas and Sweetwater still needs final grid approval. So this could face delays.
IREN doesn’t have new sites opening outside of Texas until 2028.
They report tomorrow. Buckle up.
Data centers got crushed last night with voters. There is a shift from not wanting them where they live to not wanting new ones being built in the United States.
People in Ohio rejected them all over the state.
Data center projects have been moving to other towns, but now other states are being considered because of this pushback.
Texas which is a massive growth market for these is pulling back on approving more. And this is a problem because around 27% of the planned data center capacity is supposed to go there.
This could slow the AI buildout and put pressure on AI companies. Neoclouds are getting hit this morning.
Steven Martin retweeted
$APP pumping after Q3 earnings with the Q2 miss looking like a potential one off. Gaming grew nearly 50% YoY and consumer advertisers doubled their spending from last year. AppLovin still expects growth to slow in Q4, but to 43-44% instead of the 36% analysts had.
Pumping after hours through the 50 day EMA and back to where it was in September.
Steven Martin retweeted
Can you ban other countries from building it too?
Or you just wait for China's AI to crack Washington
and then call yourselves free?
Ban ASI at home. Lose the race abroad.
Slave ending writes itself.
Steven Martin retweeted
Congrats America. Leading the world again.
Then slam the brakes.
Pause advanced AI. Ban ASI.
That's how you torch the future.
Xi and Putin must be laughing in their sleep.
