Christian Democratic Moderate 🇳🇱 guy | MA International Relations | works in politics | international and US/UK/EU politics | pro-EU
Suburban Netherlands
Joined March 2021
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DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
“I hope somebody’s documenting this because it’s the only time you’ll ever get me on top of a car,” says Rep-elect JoAnna Mendoza
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
As far as I can see, David Valadao's defeat is the worst for a general election incumbent against one major party opponent in 94 years, since the Great Depression.
In 1932, Peter Granata (R) lost to Leo Kocialkowski (D), 72-28.
Even in 2010, Joseph Cao (R) lost to Cedric Richmond (D), 65-34.
Valadao is at 31.9%.
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
Folks have praised the utility of EV analysis this year. And tbf, Dems had such a MASSIVE turnout edge that it was UNUSUALLY detectable.
However, its key weakness - ZERO persuasion insight - remains. Ralston, the #1 EV expert, missed NV-02 by 8% cuz he couldn’t foresee persuasion.
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
The House Republican caucus will shift rightward as more moderate members in swing districts lost or retired; the House Democratic caucus will shift to the center as more moderates won in swing districts; this is the normal pattern
data4democracy.substack.com/…
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
One thing about all these House upsets is we’re going to get a lot more “normal people” in Congress next term who may be more transparent about the behind-the-scenes stuff that happens in DC.
Like NJ-02 winner Zach Mullock, who’s posting selfies on Instagram from orientation.
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) tells Fox News that he’s running for US Senate in Tennessee in 2028 regardless of Blackburn appoints him.
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
Jon Ossoff would still have won Georgia’s Senate race even without Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Gwinnett counties.
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
Good explainer on how many votes might still be outstanding in #MSsen (and why it’s so hard to figure out): apnews.com/article/mississip…
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
Nate, as usual, has a good read on NV.
But I will say this now about the 2028 NV Senate race: Even in an R+3 environment, it might Lean D because the bluebath destroyed the GOP bench here. They will have to get a state lawmaker w/no base, a former elected or some wealthy person.
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
With Dems all but certain to prevail in Mississippi and Alaska, we're most likely looking at a 56D-44R Senate and a ~260D-175R House, which would be Dems' largest House majority since 1992.
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
Downballot: Jamie Davis (D) is considering bid for Louisiana Governor in 2027
After coming shockingly close to winning Tuesday’s U.S. Senate race, the Louisiana Democrat is now talking about challenging the state’s Republican governor next year
Davis, at his election night party: “Jeff Landry, you’re on notice, buddy.”
Link to article: the-downballot.com/p/morning…
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
Though he’s on track to very narrowly lose it, Doug Jones is doing better in AL-5 this year that he did against Roy Moore in 2017!
DutchModerate 🇳🇱🇪🇺 🟠✝🌱🇺🇦 retweeted
2026 Senate results if Democrats had received no Election Day votes:
🔵 North Carolina: D+9
🔵 Georgia: D+3
🔵 Texas: D+2
