
is it $82 yet? not financial advice. dyor before investing, or your portfolio might crash harder than your dreams. official backup account: @OpenAarmy
Joined September 2025
- Tweets9.3K
- Following280
- Followers1.6K
- Likes13.7K
RealOpenArmy retweeted
It’s too late for me to do a full review of $OPEN and the numbers / commentary. But I’ll say a few words:
> Under the hood, the NEW business at Opendoor is genuinely working and it's bigger than the headline numbers suggest. Kaz admitted on the call that he "underestimated how big a business title and escrow could become.” it's already running 3x last year's volume, and they're now extending it to transactions that have nothing to do with Opendoor.
>Same with this week's launch of Buy with Opendoor: the full product suite including mortgage, title, escrow now open to buyers whether or not they buy an Opendoor home.
>Cash Now, More Later passing $1B of volume in a year, mortgage originations up 5x in a quarter, and marketing cost per acquired home down 57%, and the pattern is clear: the future of this company is owning the transaction, not the house.
> What they got wrong was timeline and sequencing. They were far too aggressive. Acquisitions ramped +316% before the resale system was ready.
>by management's own scorecard, acquisitions are "solid green" and resale velocity is "yellow." homes bought before the discipline was in are being cleared at a loss, with the pain guided into Q1.
>The result is bloated, aging inventory 7,596 homes, $2.57B on the books, stale listings doubled to 18%
>carrying costs eating the P&L with two-thirds of the Q4 loss guide is holding costs. The CFO has now conceded both profit targets are behind schedule.
> The balance sheet isn't broken with $910M in cash. But $1.8B of operating cash burn in nine months means the clock is ticking louder than the plan assumed.
The new business is becoming more real. The old one's mistakes are what they have to outrun because they got to antsy to wait another Quarter or two before ramping acquisitions.
Time will tell. For now I’m still long my small piece and looking to add!
RealOpenArmy retweeted
"If we don't hit 5-10% market share in US Residential in the next 5 years, we should all be pretty disappointed right?" - Kaz
$OPEN is a 1000$ company in the making.
Opendoor 2.0: The Singularity Scaler Nobody Is Pricing In
A road to a $1000 per share.
$OPEN is sitting at $4.42.
EBITDA profitable ahead of schedule. 5,000+ acquisition contracts in Q1 — best since 2022.
LTM free cash flow: +$519M. Was -$6.3B in 2021.
The market is still pricing it as a broken iBuyer.
It's becoming a housing OS.
Full breakdown 🧵
Join us for our Q3'26 Financial Open House.
Stream on X, YouTube, or Robinhood: investor.opendoor.com
xitter.gq/i/broadcasts/1pKkOXlNZ…
RealOpenArmy retweeted
🆘
🚨 URGENT | IRAN
SENTENCED TO DEATH FOR POSTS ON X
Amirhossein Mousavi, known as James Be-Din, has been sentenced to death by the Islamic regime over his online activity, according to his lawyer.
SPEECH IS NOT A CRIME. STOP HIS EXECUTION!
#امیرحسین_موسوی
RealOpenArmy retweeted
After DOGE, Elon came to a conclusion most people missed.
He tried to reform the state from the inside. He failed. And he said it plainly: the government can't fix its own deficit. Nobody in power actually wants to cut. The machine protects itself.
So he drew the only logical conclusion. If the state can't be reformed, there are only two ways this ends.
Either global bankruptcy. Debt keeps compounding, interest payments eat the budget, and the system collapses under its own weight.
Or robots. AI and robotics grow the economy so fast that the debt becomes manageable, and abundance makes the old fights over scarcity irrelevant.
Here's the part almost nobody sees.
For two centuries, capitalism has had a marketing problem. Its gains are real but slow and invisible. 2% growth a year doesn't feel like anything. Your life gets better over 30 years and you never connect it to the system that did it. Meanwhile, the left's promises feel immediate and concrete: a check, a subsidy, a benefit. That's why the left wins on promises even when it can't deliver them. Capitalism produces the wealth, socialism takes the credit.
Robots break that asymmetry.
When productivity doubles in a few years instead of a few decades, people will see it. Things get cheaper, services get better, opportunities appear, in real time. For the first time in history, people will connect capitalism and their rising standard of living directly, almost instantly. The causal chain becomes visible.
And that changes everything politically.
So there are two scenarios.
Scenario one: we stay in the current inertia. No breakthrough, or a breakthrough we regulate to death. The debt wins. Living standards stagnate, then fall. A frustrated electorate turns to whoever promises the most, and that pushes toward a hard collectivist left. But collectivism fails, as it always does. And when it fails, the most organized, most disciplined collectivist force left standing isn't the old left. It's radical Islamism. Bankruptcy, then communism, then something worse.
Scenario two: robots win. Abundance arrives, and it arrives visibly. The link between free enterprise and prosperity becomes obvious to everyone. And this is the key point: it becomes obvious to everyone, including the minorities the left was counting on. Because their long-term incentive is the same as everyone else's. A kid in the suburbs gains infinitely more from a booming, abundant West than from a bankrupt state handing out promises it can't keep. Abundance is the most powerful integration machine ever built.
That's the Western renaissance.
The West doesn't need to win the culture war by arguing. It needs to win it by delivering. And for the first time, it has the technology to deliver fast enough for people to notice.
The race isn't left vs right anymore. It's robots vs bankruptcy.
$OPEN Q4 week 4 acquisitions,
415, down a measly 13%, hoping we get clarification on why we are not pushing for more acquisitions in the earnings call,
My thoughts are that they could be focusing energy on developing their 3p model which is unaffected by the current macro environment and being extremely selective with their acquisitions keeping numbers lower but margins/net win rate higher,
Anyways,
The Q4 run so far:
→ 525 → 428 → 477 → 415
Q4 is averaging 461 a week which is still solid, still more than double the same weeks last year.
At 6% contribution margin:
→ 461 × 13 = 5,993 contracts a quarter
→ × $377,500 = $2.26B revenue
→ × 6% = $136M contribution
→ − $110M costs = $26M a quarter
→ about $0.11 adjusted EPS annualised
→ 30x = $3.34 | 45x = $5.00 | 60x = $6.67
These are contracts, not every home becomes eventually and some fall through.
→ Clearance 8% better than MLS, really want this to increase in the future
→ Q4 closings still running well ahead of last year which is very nice to see :)
Q3 earnings land Thursday 😅
What I'm watching:
→ The first $1B revenue quarter under Kaz
→ Margin against the 3.2–3.5% guide
→ A Q4 guide above Q3 👀 but keeping my expectations low honestly on this
Also, Opendoor's 3P products are now live:
→ List with Opendoor, for sellers (early release)
→ Buy with Opendoor, for buyers (beta)
Until now, Opendoor mostly made money by buying a home and reselling it. The 3P model means it helps people buy and sell homes it never owns.
→ Sellers list on the open market using Opendoor's scale and AI tools
→ Buyers use the same tools to buy any home, not just Opendoor's
→ Opendoor earns from the transaction without the home sitting on its balance sheet
→ No inventory to fund, no holding costs, no price risk on those homes
As Kaz put it: "We want more homeowners - even if they don't buy or sell to Opendoor."
More users, more traffic, less capital at risk. Earn clean bottomline accretive margin.
Opendoor are building a platform that can adapt to any macro. It's going to take time for it to show in the numbers,
Patience and conviction.
nfa, long $OPEN 🏠
RealOpenArmy retweeted
Democrat senator denies Mary Peltola’s campaign was involved in fake Dan Sullivan on the ballot. Watch this. She gets gutted on CNBC. Well done at holding her feet to the fire here.
RealOpenArmy retweeted
$OPEN 🚨🎬🏡🇺🇸
@nejatian went quiet for a week. Today he said why: "heads down working on a few product launches that are now live."
Here's what @Opendoor shipped in October, per their Accountable dashboard:
Customer-facing:
• Smarter Home Access Tracking (Oct 19): access status for self-tours is tracked home by home
• Broader Data Behind Our Home Offers (Oct 16): offers now draw on more live MLS listings and comps
• Self-Tour Booking on the Web (Oct 5): buyers can book a self-tour right from the listing page
• Rebuilt Android app (Oct 23)
• AI virtual staging (Oct 23)
• Faster seller offer onboarding (Oct 20)
• AI + human resale valuations (Oct 19)
• End-to-end AI underwriting (Oct 15)
Internal:
• Customizable Operations Workspace (Oct 20): a personalized workspace for the ops team
• AI Valuation Training Platform (Oct 15): a faster way to train their valuation AI
• AI-Native API Platform (Oct 1): opendoor.com now runs on a new platform built around buying and selling
All 11 are listed as live on accountable.opendoor.com
That's 11 launches this month. Meanwhile acquisition contracts hit 477 for the week ending Oct 24, about 2x the same week last year.
@mikealfred also joins board.
They're shipping like a software company. Open House is Nov 5. 📈
Source: accountable.opendoor.com
Replying to @maelan_sdmr
I hadn’t realized! We’ve been heads down working on a few product launches that are now live.
RealOpenArmy retweeted
Welcome to Opendoor @mikealfred!
The time has come to accomplish bold & great things. The team at $OPEN is now exceptional and world-class.
Let's make that dent on the world 🌎
🤖 Made with AI
RealOpenArmy retweeted
Is $OPEN preparing to play offense? It looks like it!
So, as every week, I track every single home they list — all 4,226 of them, every week.
Look at what the data has been quietly doing for 7 weeks:
🏠 They stocked the shelf. Inventory up 7 weeks in a row: +1,015 homes since early September, +32%. That’s the record summer buying spree coming out of renovation.
And I doubt this is an accident - Opendoor controls its buying week by week with surgical precision (they publish weekly targets and hit the brakes within days when they want to). They CHOSE this build, otherwise we would see lower new acquisitions.
🏷️ They refuse to discount. Price cuts are running at a calm ~22%/week with a median cut of just 2%. And when a sale falls through, the home comes back at the exact same price in 88% of the ~126 cases I’ve measured, the rest slightly cheaper and not a single one ever higher. No distress anywhere in the book.
🏦 They built a new weapon. Their own mortgage arm is live now, so instead of cutting a home’s price by $7k, they can cut the buyer’s RATE — same effect for the buyer, invisible on the price tag.
📈 And it may already be working. Real sales (after buyer fall-throughs): $45M → $66M → $74M over three weeks — accelerating while prices stayed firm. Selling more WITHOUT discounting is exactly what every shareholder want them to do. Their own mortgages should act as a lever.
Meanwhile buying is steady at ~477 contracts/week, roughly 2x last year. Nobody who fully CONTROLS buying plans to buy MORE houses into December unless they intend to use them.
Big shelf + firm prices + cheap financing + accelerating sales + rising buy targets = a company positioning for a push, not retreating for winter?
The really big test will be earnings next week. Yes, I assume they will miss on Q3 earnings, but the guidance will be more important here.
Every home, every week. Not financial advice :)
RealOpenArmy retweeted
Many have tried to read the tea leaves this way.
Arizona tax records and recording will show you the purchase price, not the net.
For example - my wife and I bought our home for ~$720K in March. Topline price and that’s what records w/ county.
What it doesn’t show: (cont..)
Most $OPEN investors are waiting for November 5 earnings.
I'm looking at something else.
Actual homes Opendoor bought and resold in Maricopa County, Arizona.
We're matching property records to examine what OPEN paid, what it sold for, and what that might tell us about its unit economics.
The data arrives unevenly. It's only one county. And gross resale spreads aren't profits.
But it's an independent way to investigate whether the turnaround is showing up in real transactions.
I've published the research, preliminary findings and limitations for my paid subscribers.
The documents are the moat. The argument is the reach.
Subscribe to read it.
RealOpenArmy retweeted
I’ve been vocal about $OPEN since August.
The stock has fallen from roughly $4 to $1.91 today. I’ve averaged down along the way, but this has certainly been no fun.
The chart is downright ugly. Down 15 of the last 17 weeks. RSI at record lows. The shorts have been winning. No question.
But I’ve run a turnaround, and this is what the middle to late stages can look like.
Revenue shrinks intentionally while you fix the unit economics. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was nearly breakeven at negative $4M. Acquisition contracts are now up roughly 100% YoY, while resale closings are up more than 40%.
Ask yourself this: without the extreme interest rate environment of the past six months, would this picture look different?
The stock is priced like the business is breaking, but the operating data screams it’s rebuilding.
@nejatian’s November 5 update should tell us a lot.
My expectations for the quarter itself are low. My expectations for what Kaz says about where this is going are much higher.



























