Lead Apple Cloud Infra & ML products, ex-VP/GM Google, IBM, NVIDIA for AI & GPUs, #DataCenter
Sunnyvale, CA
Joined July 2011
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Sumit Gupta retweeted
Steve Eisman - Who called the 2008 crash - says the entire market is now "one trade," and it "better succeed"
"Even people who think they're diversified because they own bonds are NOT really that diversified"
The Big Short investor sold Google to cut his AI exposure and is sitting in cash.
What's worrying him:
> He Sold Google, Now In Cash (0:06):
- A stock he's "owned... I can't even tell you how long" - sold to reduce AI exposure. He won't replace it with defensive names: people "don't want to shift out of it to buy Clorox."
> If AI Fails, "A Big Correction" (0:52):
- It's binary: AI succeeds and the market keeps climbing, or "I think we have a big correction." How big? "That's a hard question. I don't know."
> "It's All One Trade" (1:07):
- In a 60/40 portfolio, "more than 50 percent" of the stocks is "tech and AI related," and "most of the new issuance of bonds is AI related." Then: "What scares me is that it's all one trade. So it better succeed."
> "Incestuous" Circular Deals (4:03):
- The latest Nvidia deal is "so incestuous" and "totally convoluted" - "you don't know if there's any real profitability" in the machinations.
He's not even an AI skeptic - it's going to be "something really good" (3:53)
BUT "that doesn't mean that everybody succeeds"
He actually moved to cash. Most crash calls come with no position behind them
I traced every big AI CRASH CALL to its source and scored who was right ↓
Sumit Gupta retweeted
Only 250 ppl spending $10M+ is wild & this is the Anthropic bull case succinctly put. It doesn't matter if margins come down / are thin, basically no one is actually using AI yet, and everyone will.
Sumit Gupta retweeted
If you work at MSFT and are below VP - I think you should take the their voluntary exit package. It is a clear sign that they need to cut costs & you have no way of knowing when / who’ll be axed.
The severance they’ll offer later will be 3-4 months but the VEO gives you 9 months of pay. Take the money, take the year off, go see the world, learn music, get fit, spend time with family, work on that side project, do whatever calls you.
9 months of paid leave is a super generous deal from Microsoft.
Sumit Gupta retweeted
We’re deepening our collaboration with @googlecloud to give customers more options for building and running AI at scale.
Google TPUs are coming to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), marking the first time Google TPUs will be available on a cloud platform outside Google. Customers will have more flexibility to match AI infrastructure to demanding training and inference workloads, optimizing their environments for performance, throughput, and economics.
Learn more: social.ora.cl/6012BHcVbe #AIWorld
Sumit Gupta retweeted
Big news today from Apple: Keynote is getting an open, JSON-based file format (.keyx), plus a Python library to create Keynote files on any platform.
Pages, Numbers and Keynote files today are closed and hard to modify unless you use AppleScript (limited and old) or Shortcuts (a huge pain), so you can’t really use AI to make documents in those formats. This was a HUGE pain inside Apple as well as outside, and most tools worked around it by making a PowerPoint file and importing it into Keynote, which wasn’t perfect.
Creator Studio subscribers on the Mac also get MCP support in Keynote, Pages and Numbers, so you can bring your own AI agent to read, edit and automate all three. Both the new format and MCP support arrive in November.
Bringing an AI-friendly format to Keynote (and I assume Pages and Numbers soon after) is a big positive change.
Huge day for Creator Studio today.
Our new in-app assistants can help you get things done in record time. MCP allows you to bring your own agent if you want. And an open source format for Keynote (and Python library!) so you can create Keynote documents programmatically on any platform.
Super proud of the team. Hope you love it!
Sumit Gupta retweeted
The first iPhone prototype had a plastic screen. Keys in Jobs pocket kept scratching it and he went beserk.
So, Jobs asked Corning to make Gorilla Glass for iPhone. Corning CEO said timeline was impossible. Job told him, “Don’t be afraid, get your mind around it. You can do it.”
Sumit Gupta retweeted
The biggest mistake tourists make in Japan is dragging a fifty-pound suitcase up and down subway stairs.
Watch how Japanese travelers board the bullet train. They walk on with a cup of green tea, a small shoulder bag, and both hands free.
Where is their luggage? It is already in the next city, waiting for them.
In Japan, the system is called Takkyubin, recognizable everywhere by a logo of a mother black cat carrying her kitten gently in her mouth.
When you check out of your hotel in Tokyo at eight in the morning, you hand your heavy suitcase to the front desk, fill out a tiny slip, and pay about twenty dollars. You can even send it straight from the corner convenience store.
Then you spend the entire day wandering through mountain temples or eating street food with nothing on your back.
When you walk into your traditional inn in Kyoto that evening, your suitcase is already standing neatly in your room, wiped clean, with the handle turned toward you.
In fifty years of handling millions of bags a year, lost luggage is virtually unheard of.
A society runs smoothly when you can hand your belongings to a stranger at a convenience store and know they will beat you to your hotel.
Sumit Gupta retweeted
How Meta and Microsoft are working to wean their employees off Anthropic’s Claude
Sumit Gupta retweeted
The reason frontier LLMs will never be profitable is because the minute they stop spending, the free models catch up.
You're in a constant loop of increased spending to stay ahead, while everyone behind you catches up at a fraction of the cost by using your model.
LLMs are just commodity with no moat.
Sumit Gupta retweeted
Paper straws worse for the environment than plastic ones, says study trib.al/TEphuYk
Sumit Gupta retweeted
For decades, we called it the Indus Valley Civilisation.
But archaeology, palaeochannel mapping, geology and satellite imagery point to a wider, maybe clearer picture: the Sindhu–Sarasvati Civilisation.
A thread on a civilisation, a river, a script and a narrative worth re-examining. 🧵1/21
Sumit Gupta retweeted
读 Anthropic 的招股书，我看到了音乐什么时候会停的信号。
它卖给客户的承诺按年到期，向供应商买算力的承诺却锁到2030+，而且大部分属于take or pay （不管用不用都要付）。
26年上半年，这些承诺从一千亿涨到近六千亿。自己还在招股书里写了：“增速会下降，可能比预期更快。”
于是我做了一个 scenario analysis，model 了一下在不同的增速下，Anthropic 未来几年的收入，对比它的这些承诺支出。哪怕是偏乐观的假设，到2027、2028年，光算力付款就会超过全部收入，缺口要靠融资填（借钱）。
填缺口的钱主要来自 Google、Amazon、Broadcom 等。这些公司既是供应商，又是股东，又是债主，其中的云厂商还是竞争对手。
问题在于，S-1 中披露放款条件和 Anthropic 收入的增速是绑定的：增长快的时候，钱可以随时提。增长慢的时候，提款资格同时失效。说简单一点就是钱在你最不需要的时候最多，在你最需要的时候反而最少。救命钱的提款条件和病因绑在一起。
这就暴露了循环融资的问题，预计最快在27 年下半年就会进入结构性问题（一旦增速低于某个门槛，这些条款会自动把问题放大）。Anthropic 自己不会先倒，它可以不续那些“,可取消”合同。
所以，音乐停止的顺序是：
1. Frontier Labs 增速放缓
2. 供应商融资收紧
3. Frontier Labs 不续约
4. 最后新云还不上债
招股书第140页有一句话："我们的算力承诺通常必须履行，无论收入或利用率如何；而我们获得额外资本的能力，取决于许多我们无法控制的条件。"
这句话的前半部分是确定的，而后半部分是不确定的。在我看来，整个 AI 产业链现在在赌的，就是这后半句话。
Sumit Gupta retweeted
Absolutely wild detail in Microsoft's 60,000-person buyout:
Copilot, Xbox and Windows teams are fully eligible. Data center staff are excluded.
So the people building the AI can take the money and leave. The people building the buildings for the AI can't.
27% of the company, two days before earnings, in a year Microsoft is guiding $175B in capex. Imho this is the clearest picture yet of where big tech's money is going.
$MSFT offers 60,000 employees a voluntary exit.
60K Y’all!!
First time this has ever been offered at Microsoft and it will affect employees in India, The United States, Canada, and the UK at level 70 or below…
Employees find out in a few hours if they are being targeted for this.
This just makes me think that H127 layoffs sound intense. Is this a pre-layoff round?
Also makes me wonder if they changed some scheduled layoffs due to be called out by @VP. Peace offering? 🤔 Timing is just interesting.
More to come.
Sumit Gupta retweeted
Worth a read $ANT
I always respect David's opinion on IPOs, even if I don't agree with them.
"There’s 40%+ Downside If Growth Slows, Even with Higher Margins"
"There’s 90%+ Downside If Anthropic Generates the Same Profit as Meta"
@NewConstructs ran a reverse DCF on the proposed valuation and a few other scenarios - results in our pre-IPO report:
newconstructs.com/anthropic-…
Sumit Gupta retweeted
Remembering some advice I received from a dotcom graybeard:
In a layoff tsunami you want to be first to look for a job. The guy who is "valuable" and hangs on to the very end finds himself looking for a job in a completely saturated market.
Go early.
Sumit Gupta retweeted
Ask yourself why Anthropic magically needs hundreds of billions of dollars a year for compute after IPO, when they were paying essentially nothing before.
Ask yourself why OpenAI was projecting $300 billion in losses on compute through 2030 when Anthropic was claiming to be profitable.
It’s the same business.
Ask yourself why the hell wouldn’t Anthropic just pay the $7.5 billion of original convertible notes with $120 billion cash on hand rather than letting it convert to $108 billion of equity.
Don’t be an idiot.
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Sumit Gupta retweeted
This may seem like a lot until you realize that Microsoft employs 17,000 people just to run LinkedIn, which seems completely insane to me
BREAKING: Microsoft, $MSFT, is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company’s efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption, per Bloomberg.
Personnel on select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible.
This reflects ~27% of Microsoft's total workforce.