🇳🇿 | CEO | Founder | Entrepreneur | Technologist | Platform Designer | Market Transformer | AI Builder & Strategist
LA
Joined December 2008
- Tweets5.8K
- Following6.8K
- Followers1.7K
- Likes429
This is what awaits you, if you build your business in anthropics platform.
Like Amazon, they will systematically take the highest margin businesses in house, leaving you crumbs.
And you are giving them the data to do it.
Embrace open source for your businesses agentic operating system, before it’s too late.
That’s my expertise, dms open if anybody needs help.
Gavin Baker: Anthropic Believes They Could Be the ONLY Company Left in the World
“I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”
@GavinSBaker:
“Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario has said that Anthropic might be the only private company in the world at some point.
Think about that. In this vision, an Anthropic maximalist vision, there's Anthropic, and then there are governments, and that's it.
So there's a lot of confidence. I'm sure they have more advanced checkpoints than Fable up their sleeve. They've executed really, really well.
I would probably take the under on them being the only private company in the world. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a long time before they land a rocket.”
@Jason:
“Or they deliver your lunch. I don't know. There might be other businesses in the world. Zipline might want to bring you a burrito. Uber might want to take you somewhere. Waymo might want to drive you home. But sure, Dario.”
@DavidSacks:
“I might interpret that as a negative signal because it's so hubristic. This is getting into SBF land a little bit.”
Gavin:
“I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”
They can of course, but if they do, other states will welcome them. That is the entire point of the federal system that empowered states.
Also SpaceX’s is not an illegal monopoly. Being the only source based on merit does not make it so. There is no law in the United States against that.
I mean, a theoretical physicist vs the worlds best engineers with data from 11 thousand satellites in hand… who knew?
Irrelevant, because in each of those cases Tesla and Spacex delivered government funded priorities and benefit’s for far less than any available alternatives.
Neither company now has any significant government dependence. In fact now the reverse is true. The us government’s access to space is impossible without SpaceX.
Powerful!
@WetaFXofficial with @andyserkis as Golem pioneered this technique filming Lord Of The Rings in New Zealand, so the sky's the limit on what it can achieve in realism.
No chance the supreme court gets expanded in the next 2 years. Trump would veto it.
And before it can be done anyway you have to get rid of the filibuster. That is a nuclear option.
There isn't the support in numbers even after the blue wave for that because its a double edged sword.
Even THEN core doctrine is so strong on this point that even a liberally stacked court is unlikely to allow it.
The AI data center pushback is going to hit disproportionately. Who wins? Read on:
Only those building and controlling their own AI compute projects can overcome the barriers and get compute online. It will take clout and money and resources to overcome community pushback and supply chain delays.
Neoclouds are toast. Oracle is toast. Massive debt burdens, revenue on hold. Microsoft will be hobbled. Both contracted out most of it out.
Only Amazon, Google, Facebook, and SpaceX have that level of control and resource's.
Only SpaceX has the capacity to meet the demand that the others cant. And they already have most of what they need in already approved in red state (still) locations.
The blue wave will not outweigh that. In fact the blue wave will hurt everyone else far more, and SpaceX will benefit.
Expect spot prices to stay higher or go higher. This remains a supply constrained market for year, and that is just for business agentic demand.
The competition for consumer dominance in personal agents is just getting started. That is a winner take nearly all market, and Google, Facebook, Open AI, Anthropic cannot afford to lose.
That alone will accelerate the supply crunch, and increase demand in a market where only SpaceX can outpace increasing supply.
When the market gets it wrong...
Help me out, just getting started: like, repost and share!
The reason I had only 10.2GW at the end of 2027 was because of an expectation that we'd have a blue wave
(But this also means rev/GW will be higher)
The reason I had CapEx/GW going down in mid 2027 is because of an expectation that Neoclouds will be forced to sell assets at a discount
The more complex the terrestrial compute game... the more it benefits those that can deal with complexity
And the more it benefits space compute
*Again, this is not investment advice. I'm trying to help people think through a very complex space*
True that, and my career arc from software dev, user support, systems engineering, consulting, dev ops, product design, user experience design, security, testing, architecture, database analysis, and all the rest suddenly is the skills needed to make it work, that the kids dont have ;-)
It really is.
Hadn't coded for 30 years, and forgot the pure creative joy of it, since my devs teams told me CEO's dont code, rudely!
Doing 5X solo now to deliver more than the teams I used to lead insanely fun!
Got you beat!
I wrote my first line 47y ago. Basic. Spectravideo 128. Side scroller game. Saved to cassette tape. Even took it to show the local computer store. 8 years old.
Yep, I'm that old.
Now back AI coding full time, after 30y.
Loving it! What a time to be alive.
And why on earth are they still trying?
Between Rocketlab that probably maintains a niche, and SpaceX, the launch market is cooked.
Unless you are doing something new, you are are pissing into the wind.
Welcome to the world of intelligence throttling. We have all been through it with Claude and Open AI as compute becomes constrained.
Any targeted moves will be held up in court all the way to the supreme court - you cant use the power of government target your political enemies, and any statements like this will be weighed in court, so its doe.
Any general moves against manufacturing would be suicide for Texas.
Its noise and grandstanding, and we are going to be dealing with it non stop for the next 21 years.
The guys background is branding and marketing. He knows what works. He's a piece of shit, but we are all quote posting him.
Don't feed the trolls.
So true!
I have a theory about why shitposting is paradoxically so effective.
With everyone trying to sell something and half the timeline sounding like it was written by AI, you can barely tell whether you're reading something written by a human or fully automated.
Then someone posts something so retarded it's actually funny.
That's the one thing AI still can't imitate convincingly: that particular kind of stupidity that only a human being is capable of.