Neoconservative. Centrist. Pro-choice, anti-gun. Tweets about politics and sports, with a side of movies and TV shows. โsmug neocon cuckโ he/him/his
San Francisco, CA
Joined September 2018
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MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
Once again, it's very weird that Trayvon Martin is the catalyst for a lot of of police abolition stuff, as it's obvious that the main reason for his death was George Zimmerman not actually being a police officer.
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
๐ฅAvigdor Lieberman claims that "at current voting rate, we're at 62 seats! Don't stop! Vote for my party and the government of the October 7 massacre is out! Don't stop!"
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
New - Senate poll - Maine
๐ต Troy Jackson 51%
๐ด Susan Collins (Inc) 44%
Echelon Insights - LV - 10/23
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
The fact that people watched this movie and fell for her shtick is exactly how Elizabeth Holmes was valued at billions of dollars for a scam product that couldn't work.
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
A D+11 generic ballot from YouGov.
Economist/YouGov poll | 10/23-10/26
Generic congressional ballot 2026
(Likely voters)
๐ฆDemocratic 52% (no change)
๐ฅRepublican 41% (-2)
โโ
(Registered voters)
๐ฆDemocratic 46% (+1)
๐ฅRepublican 40% (no change)
(Change from last week)
Link to poll: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.neโฆ
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
Iโm rereading the last third of A Storm of Swords and it feels exactly like this
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
I think itโs mostly lame that MAGA and Fox types are trying to make the Saddam-Cheesecake Factory line into an outrage. But I think itโs hilarious that nearly all of them are offended on behalf of the Cheesecake Factory and not Trump. I havenโt heard anyone defend Trumpโs interior design. The logic of their freakout is, โHow dare you say the Cheesecake Factory looks like the Trump White House!? The Cheesecake Factory is awesome!โ
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
Listened to Nate Silver on Ezra this morning. One of the least popular things I could do on this website is defend Nate Silver, so challenge accepted.
His "vibes" have been directionally correct in every Election. In 2012, he fought against the polling unskewers making claims that Romney would win based on undersampling of Republicans.
In 2016, his model was famously FAR more bullish on Trump than any others. He was the only modeler who understood the possibility of correlated polling error.
In 2020, he repeatedly emphasized the higher than usual uncertainty due to the pandemic.
In 2022, he fought back against pollsters (NY Times!) basically ignoring their own data to buy into the Red Wave.
In 2024, he said that even though his model was 50/50, his gut said Trump would win.
All in all, a better record than anyone else on Election Twitter.
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
Republican/Democratic parties: *fighting over everything*
Libertarian party subplot:
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
I actually did grow up in one of these families to Iโm here to say: Cheesecake Factory is tacky and most of real Americaโข๏ธ is even tackier
For years, eating at Cheesecake Factory or Olive Garden or Red Lobster was a special occasion for many American families. It was a luxury reserved for a graduation or perhaps an anniversary.
Meanwhile, Barack Hussein Obama and his spouse regularly dine at upscale restaurants around the world - including one diner where the tasting menu costs $390 per person and another that served $175 steaks. The melted condescension cost extra.
No "smelly Walmart people" or bitter Americans clinging to their guns and religion in Obama's puffed up world.
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
Of note, I think herding has been a massive problem in general this election. Iโve seen more โTalarico +2โ polls than should be considered statistically normal. Pollsters are not coming to independent results.
Itโs not just a problem in Texas either, itโs everywhere. I ran a simulation of how likely the polling results across states would be if pollsters were coming to independent conclusions. The results speak for themselves
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
But I thought the point of the embargo and sanctions was to pressure Israelis to elect leaders who would adopt different policies?
It sounds like Congresswoman Tlaib doesn't think Israel should exist at all.
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
Heโs ready to run for Congress.
MQ-9 Reaper Stan Account ๐บ๐ธ ๐บ๐ฆ retweeted
To make a broader point about Bret Stephens-- a fair number of American right wingers actually agree with Smotrich/Ben Gvir and think a supernatural deity requires that the settlers steal land from Muslims on the West Bank.
They don't admit this but it's what they believe.