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The funny thing is that all the swing state electorates were completely winnable for Ds
Ds won the senate races in NV//WI/MI/AZ! Harris got absolutely killed on persuasion
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My guess is Graham ultimately wins by around 4%
And probably gets primaried regardless in 6 years
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A reminder their final poll of the SC senate race 6 years ago was about 4% off
Which isn’t far off from your normal margin of error
Also being an appointed incumbent can sometimes be a drag not a benefit
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i dont generally recommend using exclusively AI design because its obvious and meh, but Vance should use AI design
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When you vote for someone in a two party system it should be based on harm reduction… this is the same reason why I’m more than willing to support conservative Dems vs Republicans
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Replying to @udiWertheimer
I think knowing that back context helps explain a lot. Not an over reaction in her case, very personal.
I don’t agree. Its elevator operator problem. But still empathetic. It’s her livelihood. I might not decry the loss of blacksmiths, but i can empathize with the blacksmith.
Both can be true.
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Blaming this all on ~the libs~ is a cope. We all have biases, yes. But several of these cases—including Hutchinson's—were extremely flimsy and *clearly* motivated by the Trump admin wanting revenge. It's third-world behavior, and I'm grateful our system keeps it in check.
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Federal grand juries approve 99.9% of indictments. The Trump admin has failed with:
Cassidy Hutchinson
Letitia James
Sens. Mark Kelly & Elissa Slotkin
Reps. Jason Crow, Chrissy Houlahan, Chris Deluzio, Maggie Goodlander
Sean Dunn
Sidney Reid (three times)
Nathalie Jones
I could go on. Whatever your politics, it’s not a great look.
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I understand the economics of buying a national ad during the World Series for the Florida Senate race — the state has 10 media markets — but it only works if you believe the Tampa Bay Rays have fans.
There's really not, at least federally. Manchin had to be close, but even then I'd wager a majority of his voters were Clinton supporters rather than Trump.
Murkowski is really in a class by herself in being a politician who is in office due to the other party.
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I cringe from secondary embarrassment just watching these things. How devoid of basic human self-respect must you be to slobber over such a man without at least a portion of your lunch coming up?
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As a general rule, “they are all the same” is always untrue. Same in Iranian elections even
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This is criminal behavior.... by DoJ, not by Comey. I can't stand Comey and I detest his lawyer Pat Fitzgerald. But this is utterly abusive prosecution: choosing a target, and then fishing to find a crime. It's despicable. Blanche should resign.
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Replying to @aseitzwald
There isn't any level of private charity that can make up for the destruction of cutting SNAP in the way a GOP Senate has so willingly acquiesced to. If you want to give politically, I think @davidshor's suggestion is right.
(If not for Alaska, I'd have suggested Iowa/Kansas.)
Replying to @PollTracker2024
I mean Graham is clearly going to win, but going from a 638 sample to a different 252 sample to draw this conclusion is kind of wild lol
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Btw, this DOES NOT MEAN we slow down. KEEP THE FOOT ON THE GAS FOLKS. Phonebank, Canvass, get out the vote and tell ur 20 friends to vote.
Rick Jackson on the state of the race in the final stretch: “I’m very realistic. This is a very tight race. I mean, it’s tied at best right now…If people in rural Ga. and other places think ‘oh well this is going to be easy’ and they don’t show up we’re going to lose.” #gapol

































